JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:29

Hello, everyone! Thanks for coming out. My new SP ranks are live so if you have any questions, it's a great time ask - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-second-half-starting-pitche... (though it's not a requirement to ask about them, we can still talk some hitters, strategy, or whatever baseball-related inquiry you have!)

tripps

1:32

Sean Manaea in the top 20? Is he a true stud?

Paul Sporer

1:34

I'm not gonna lie, it surprised me to put him that high, too, but as I analyzed everything, I realized he had to go up. He's missing bats like he did back in that short 2019 sample. He doesn't walk guys, either. And while he's had some health issues, I think A's are going to let him go a good bit. I can see some skips, but I doubt we see a full scale shutdown at any point

1:34

I know you mentioned Garcia may be swapped out for Javier. Where would Javier rank if he were currently in the rotation?

Paul Sporer

1:36

Pretty much the same spot, tbh. I see them very similarly

Wilson Betemit

1:36

In your 2H starter rankings, you mentioned some starters being shut down due to innings limits. Are there any you feel are more likely than others? Detroit announced plans to limit Mize/Manning/Skubal innings. Kaprielian just matched his professional high of 68 innings in a season. Taillon probably has a limit somewhere. Anyone else of note?

Paul Sporer

1:37

The young guys in particularly give me pause: Gilbert, Cease, Manoah, McClanahan, etc... The Milwaukee guys were said to get about +100 on their '20 total and while they will massage it a bit, we've already started to see some pushbacks

1:38

I think Mize is cuttable in anything but AL-Only leagues given his limits right now and Skubal might not be far behind, though his K rate could still make him worth it in the 3-5 IP stints. I wish they'd give them an opener to at least give them some chances at wins for our fantasy purposes lol

Von Hayes

1:38

Bobby

1:39

I see you left people on the IL off the list. But if deGrom or Carrasco are off the IL, where would they slot in the rankings?

Paul Sporer

1:41

deGrom is of course #1 and Carrasco probably top 60

1:41

Is Bassit sustainable into next season?

Paul Sporer

1:44

Yeah, I don't think this is even that new. He has been a damn fine SP since '19 now, amassing 332 IP of a 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 17% K-BB rate. I see him as a high-3.00s true talent but with some good fortune on the hit suppression, a friendly home park, and the sub-1.0 HR rates of the last 2 yrs, he can live in the low-to-mid 3.00s

Nick

1:44

I’m in between l.Webb and David price right now.. roto 12 teamer and struggling with era and whip

Paul Sporer

1:45

I'd go Webb. He's a full on SP right now while Price is still building up and the Dodgers could kinda pull the rug out of from under him if ... WHEN they go out and acquire some SPs.

Go Bears!

1:45

No Aaron Nola? He was the first pitcher we drafted way back in March...is he that hopeless now?

Paul Sporer

1:47

He returned from the IL after I made the list, my bad. He's a top 25 arm

Peter

1:47

How close are Cease (#54) and Skubal (#52)? Who has more upside ROS?

Paul Sporer

1:47

Whattya mean how close are they? They're 2 spots apart. Both are gonna run into IP limits so I don't really see any major split between 'em

1:47

Surprised you have Heaney so low. Touki, Ober, and Fleming are also surprising higher. What are your thoughts there. Heaney can still provide volume and Ks but the ratios are obviously unpredictable

Paul Sporer

1:48

I don't mean this snarkily, but why? Heaney isn't good. He's a HR machine which consistently wrecks his ERA, his WHIP ranges from meh to bad, and all you get is Ks. I don't see the appeal at all.

Jim

1:48

Of these guys in the 30s - Kikuchi, Musgrove, Manoah and Gray - which one would you give best chance to overachieve according to these ranking for ROS? Underachieve?

Paul Sporer

1:49

Gray over, Manoah under but only bc of IP limitations. On talent, Kikuchi

Me-Rod

1:49

you had E-Rod way down the rankings, you're not buying his recent turnaround?

Paul Sporer

1:50

Not really. I could see him going up a tier if he stays hot over the next couple weeks, but he is who he is: a high-3.00s ERA, bad WHIP, decent Ks guy

Chris

1:50

Tarik Skubal reminds me a lot of a lefty Max Scherzer before his breakout. Am I being too optimistic?

Paul Sporer

1:51

Well ya, any time you tab someone with a #1 pitcher in baseball kind of upside, it's remarkably optimistic. I love what Skubal has done this year and there's definitely upside, but I rarely put someone down as a true ace projection

Peter

1:51

Can keep Freddy Peralta for a 21st. Is there a bat to target for that type of value?

Assume acquired bat has no keeper value
12 team 5x5 roto

Paul Sporer

1:51

Top of the line. I'd settle for nothing less than a game-changing stud

Rachel

1:51

Still believe in Mahle? I’m not sure I want to start him regularly

Paul Sporer

1:54

The Ks keep his floor pretty high and I don't think he's really hurting that much that I'd bench him. Even over the L7 w/the 4.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, he has 54 Ks in 38.3 IP and no true meltdowns. I still really like him

Marnell

1:54

Would you start Gomber today?

Paul Sporer

1:55

No, not in Coors off the IL

Slapshot

1:55

Better FA option for getting saves for the rest of the year: Joakim Soria or Pete Fairbanks? Or wait til the trade deadline and see who moves teams before making any moves?

Paul Sporer

1:55

Fairbanks between the 2, but I'd wait to see how the dust settles on bullpens after the deadline

1:55

Would you recommend selling Freddy Peralta given the impending innings limit? I know it is hard to say without league specifics but is Altuve fair value?

Paul Sporer

1:55

I did indeed recommend selling him! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-955-fiv...

Jon Gray

1:56

Am I going to dealt at the deadline? Best bet on where I go and if I see a jump in value from the 62 spot?

Paul Sporer

1:57

It'd be truly insane if they didn't deal him, so they probably won't lol. No chance I can really guess where he's going w/any measure of certainty that wouldn't just be a blind guess. It's a sellers market w/seemingly every contender needing SP, RP, or both, so they should have a lot of options. And yes I'd move him up instantly once out of Coors

Heathcliff Slocumb

1:57

Long term, a package of Thor + Urquidy puts you in the _______ range.

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