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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:57

These questions are impossible, tbh. It really just depends on what your league market will bear. You should be asking for something pretty substantial for those 2 as keepers, though

Non-Pitcher Question

1:57

Brujan looks brutal so far, weak contact, no walks. No shade on his future, but do you see anything encouraging? Think he stays up? His hustle is good...

Paul Sporer

2:02

Yeah I'm a big Brujan fan and it's been rough. 21 PA is literally meaningless in terms of talent assessment, but it could get him sent out, especially if they add some hitting at the deadline (Cruz would be a great fit). Kelenic and even Franco were pretty brutal 20-25 PA in, too. Brujan is a cut below them, but all 3 will be fine IMO

The Lawnmower Man

2:02

Kyle Gibson still pretty high. Is that because you trust him or because the Tiger lineup is just that ferocious that you give him a pass?

Paul Sporer

2:04

Even after the best team in the league rocked him twice, he still has a 2.86 ERA. He probably belongs in that Alcantara/Waino/Greinke area, especially if he's traded since that home park is so favorable

King Cole

2:04

Has Cole figured out the lack of stickum? Obviously beast-mode lately, but that initial dip spooked me.

Paul Sporer

2:06

Spooked the whole baseball world, but it was a pretty sharp overreaction that gave way too much credit to sticky stuff. If it turned guys into the best pitcher in baseball, we'd have seen a lot more transformations. Cole is a stud and the only slight concern is the longball

Eyes on the Mize

2:06

I've heard that Mize will only be limited for maybe one more start, then Skubal will get limited and Mize stretched back out. Does that boost Mize up?

Paul Sporer

2:09

Yes, it will definitely push him back up and I didn't realize the IP scale back was temporary - https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2021/07/03/detroit-tiger... -- still a K liability, but if he can go 5+ regularly starting in the next week or two, he'll jump into that Kyle Muller tier

Guest

2:09

Luis Patiño or Josiah Gray not top 120 rest of way, or even 3-4 weeks, for you? Eickoff is 110 and he was DFAed, plenty of other duds these guys should be rostered over.

Paul Sporer

2:10

Neither was in their rotation when the rankings were made while Eickhoff was (and he was 110 which is basically worthless, let's be real). Patiño is interesting if he gets a legit spot, but Gray is a wildcard I'm not really betting on. The Dodgers will get arms at the deadline so I just don't see a situation where Gray carves out a fantasy-relevant role

Chris

2:11

Do you see Ketel Marte getting any time at 2B in the second half (assuming health)?

Paul Sporer

2:13

Not impossible, just depends on Walker & Smith. If they want to play Walker, then Smith is OF and Marte can play 2B, but if they start sitting Walker when Marte returns & put Smith at 1B, then Marte is a primary OF

Taillon and FAAB

2:13

Hi Paul--My 13-team mixed league conducts FAAB bidding like a slow auction on the league message board. My 8-point bid for Jameson Taillon was just topped with 9. We started the season with 50 points, I come to the Taillon bidding with 16 left. I'm in 3rd place with a shot at improving...and my pitching is stronger than my offense.

But I a) don't see any potential impact bats coming up/available where I'd better spend my remaining FAAB (and those tend to be OF, where I'm good, rather than 1B/2B, where I could use help). b) have points I could gain or lock down with another strong arm, and c) see Taillon as the last reliable/upside arm left (won't have enough FAAB for Sale when he returns, and the next good-ish arm available after JT is Kolby Allard--after that, steep dropoff).

He'd be replacing a middle reliever, so that's not an issue...I'm inclined to keep bidding, but also feel weird going a half season with just a few points left in FAAB. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer

2:15

(edited it for readability) It seems you've outlined the reasons to go for him pretty well but I'd cap around 11-12 so you have SOMETHING left to fill in injuries and such. Can you trade for pts? While there aren't many obvious prospect bats on the horizon, someone will emerge that could fill your need and the trade deadline could also create opportunities for someone we didn't see as a potential impact bat beforehand. That said, I'm not trying to talk you out of Taillon. He seems to fit your needs well and is worth going for in this instance.

Guest

2:21

I see you have Trevor Rogers at 12! On talent alone, I don't disagree. But, the Marlins have said they're going to start limiting him pretty strongly and have already begun to do so. He hasn't gone 6 IP or gotten a W in over a month (6/15 @ STL was the last time he did either). Over his last 6 starts (24.2 IP), he has a 4.01 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP so he hasn't exactly been stellar of late. Is ~60 IP RoS enough to keep him in the top 15 SP?

Paul Sporer

2:23

I believe they said ~175 IP so that leaves about 70 in the tank which I think can keep him top 15. 2.73 FIP in those last 5. I'm not too worried.

Mitt Face

2:23

Thanks for the list, and chat. I have very few moves left for the season, and am still carrying Pablo Lopez. Are you confident enough that Cristian Javier will rejoin the rotation, to pick him up to replace Pablo? There’s nobody on the wire that would come close to javier’s ranking (if he starts again).

Paul Sporer

2:25

I just can't possibly envision a scenario where they keep Garcia in the rotation the rest of the way. There is a chance that Javier is bypassed and they go Greinke-McCullers-Framber-Odorizzi-Urquidy but Urq and Odo are health risks so I just feel really confident that Javier gets back in. I'd personally make the move for him and cut Lopez (as sad as that is... so bummed about his inj.)

Edwin Diaz

2:25

Should my owners be adding or trying to acquire a backup closer, just in case?

Paul Sporer

2:28

He was truly brilliant before this lull so unless it's injury-related, I'm not particularly concerned. Stallings' GS was about as lucky as it gets (though Diaz did load the bases so he's not COMPLETELY absolved there). The vagaries of baseball can be such a bitch sometimes... one of the league's best closers gets run over by the Pirates TWICE in separate series including one of the most insane HRs I've ever seen. It's never a bad idea to have backup plans for SVs, but again, unless he's hurt, I'm not sweating Diaz

Bobby

2:28

It is now the second half, how would you rank these players going forward. Suarez, Conforto, Bellinger, Rendon, Mondesi.

Paul Sporer

2:35

Man, this is a tough rank w/so much health uncertainty. Conforto, Bellinger, Suarez, Mondesi, Rendon

Will

2:35

Why is Eduardo Rodriguez so low? He has looked top 50 for a month now.

Paul Sporer

2:38

Wait, I think I answered about E-Rod already

ah yes, Ctrl-F E-Rod to find it

2:38

Where would Strasburg fit on the list? Do you prefer Gonsolin or Strasburg for the remainder of the year?

Paul Sporer

2:39

I'm a long-term Stras fan, but I'm going Gonso. I know he got hit up on Monday, but I'm standing by him rest of way. Even when the Dodgers get some reinforcements at the deadline, I still think Gonso holds a role and does v well down the stretch

Rocket Roger

2:39

Hey Paul, love the Sleeper and the Bust. In a dynasty league, is there any hope long-term for Jorge Alfaro? Or is he a cut?

Paul Sporer

2:40

Thank you so much for listening! I think he's cuttable for sure. Who are you considering scooping in his place?

Jon Gray

2:40

Dealt Trivino for Jon Gray in 5x5 Roto dynasty. Outside shot for a comeback but pretty much not competing this year. Seem fair?

Paul Sporer

2:40

Dig it! A semi-closer should always be dealt in dynasty, espec. for an SP who seems destined to finally get out of his awful home park

Darren

2:41

In a keeper league and considering trading Trevor Rogers and Adolis Garcia for an OF bat. What is a realistic return? Or is Garcia the real deal?

Paul Sporer

2:47

Again, I can't really answer these questions w/any real value bc it entirely depends on your league, buuut I included this bc of the secondary Q re: Garcia. Even if you look at just his last 40 games (starting on June 1st) when he's regressed, he still has a 25 HR/9 SB pace in that time. He's not as good as his first 45 gms (58/22 pace) nor is he as bad as his last 40. He has legit pop, a good bit of speed, and thus I think he's a reasonable 30/15 kind of guy, even if he hits somewhere around .240 AVG. If you're moving him AND Rogers, you gotta get a massive return IMO

Chilly

2:50

Who do you like better out of Schoop, Dom Smith, Blackmon? Trying to pick a target from the possibly overperforming to the scary bad. Thanks!

Paul Sporer

2:54

I think Dom has the best chance at overperforming rest of season. Love what Schoop has done for my Tiges and they should definitely move him, but what if he gets traded into more of a part-time role? Blackmon's K, BB skills have been fantastic, but his power is non-existent.

Edwin Diaz's Statcast page

2:57

Just a note to go check Diaz's Statcast page. His spin rate dropped off a cliff the day they started the actual ban and it has not come back. So it looks like he waited until they started actually checking. Just something to think about

Paul Sporer

2:58

But he still has a 33% K and 15% SwStr since the crackdown. The fluke grand slam is doing a lotttt of heavy lifting on his 7.59 ERA since the crackdown. Fair to keep tabs on the Statcast stuff, but I don't think it's a major issue for him

Edwin Diaz's Statcast page

2:58

Late breaking news - Kirilloff to the IL for wrist surgery.

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