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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

2:30

Tigers definitely have that green arrow next to 'em so you probably couldn't get them SUPER low these days. I wonder if the Braves might be the sell high. Kinda obvious as they just won, but they likely aren't bringing Freef back, aren't exactly youth-loaded (though have some excellent cornerstone youth in Acuña, Albies, and Riley on offense), and are low in farm system rankings

PJ322

2:30

The chance of a deal happening today is 100% HOPELESS #reversejinx

Paul Sporer

2:30

Love it!

Bob

2:30

Paul, do you think Willson Contreras will get many DH opportunities when he's not catching now that NL is going to go with designated hitter?

Paul Sporer

2:31

Gomes is a legit backup so I could see Contreras getting burn in LF and DH to make sure Gomes is playing w/some regularity and that could bring Contreras to the 500 PA threshold

Bob

2:31

Hey Paul, are you okay? Response time to questions seems to be slow or is it my computer?

Paul Sporer

2:32

I am OK, sometimes I take time to look something up for an answer. Sometimes that research goes nowhere so I spend 2-3 mins doing it and then don't have anything to really add to the answer, but I like to be thorough

Dave

2:32

Hey man, where you been going for 3B? Seems JRam's dollar value in the auction calculator does not justify his draft choice, Machado does not run, and after that, boy it is ugly.

Paul Sporer

2:37

I'd gladly take J Ram in the top 4-5 of the draft but I haven't really had picks that high so then it gets kinda dicey. I'm in on a Bregman rebound but from there I eye some from a cluster of Hayes, Urias, Moncada, Suarez, Chapman, JD, Candy, and Moose

Simon

2:37

Better strategy to bet on young arm with upside or older established arms? Ceiling or floor question...

Paul Sporer

2:38

Yeah it's hard to give a universal answer bc league context matters a lot, too. What is the replacement value on the wire? In general, I like to shoot for the moon with some pitchers, but obviously not my entire staff

Philip

2:38

Why aren’t people higher on MJ Melendez? He did something incredible last year at AAA as a 22-year-old. Thanks, Paul!

Paul Sporer

2:41

Sal's presence is a big one (despite their announcement that MJ would play other positions to get him to the majors), but also just a lack of knowledge about him. Heck, I'm a huge baseball nerd and his insanity escaped my radar. I knew the name and knew he was a rising prospect, but until Justin put me on, I didn't know he popped 41 HOMERS at AA/AAA last year! If ST was going on right now and he was getting regular ABs and there was more talk about the 41 HRs, his price would be rising. Until then, take advantage!

Fred

2:42

Does anyone except opponents and umpires dislike showboating? It makes sports so much better

Paul Sporer

2:43

Old clowns on social media, lol. It's always the same tired shit every time, too, about respecting the game blah blah blah. No one is disrespecting the game and there is a line to it, like don't get in your opponents face for no reason, but celebrating w/YOUR teammates is UNQUESTIONABLY awesome for the game. That includes bat tosses and even planned out cellys at home plate for a walkoff (like Prince's explosion one years ago). I just can't get my head around that sort of stuff being a problem

2:45

Again, it crosses a line when it's taunting the opposition, but a celebration isn't inherently taunting. Pitchers get way too deep in their feelings sometimes and that includes legends like Bob Gibson. Throwing at someone for enjoying success off you isn't tough in the slightest so I always found it weird that that attitude was propped up from guys like Gibby. Love Gibby (obv never saw him play, but read tons and my dad regaled me w/many tales of him & others from the 60s), but always found that throw at em if they celebrate shit to be Charmin soft.

Henry

2:45

Am I wrong to continue believing in Luzardo?

Paul Sporer

2:46

No not at all. I'm not super in, but I also can't go all Law & Order and say he's done-done. Still a remarkably live arm from the left side who is just 24 yrs old. If he bounced back in a big way THIS year, I wouldn't be surprised in the least

Tigers?

2:46

Are you out on Haase? What about that sweet C eligibility?

Paul Sporer

2:49

I kinda am, yeah, bc I just don't see the supplemental OF playing time. I'm not sure he gets another 381 PA and even if he does, I'd be surprised if he posted a triple-digit wRC+. If he falls into regular PT in-season, I can understand the interest as a C2, but I'm not drafting him this winter

Bob

2:49

Your thoroughness is greatly appreciated. Thanks from all of us Paul Sporer lovers.

Paul Sporer

2:49

No problem! I appreciate you asking the Q bc I know sometimes the answers take a long time and I always try to let y'all know if it's a phone call or taking the dogs out, but absent that, it's just me researching something!

Big Joey

2:50

Wander, Devers and Tucker. Please rank if you could "keep-forever", league also counts OBP and SLG

Paul Sporer

2:53

Holy smokes that is tough to find much separation!! I'll give Tucker a slight edge over Devers w/his SBs and similar hitting profiles. The question is do we go w/Wander #1 off the top and bet on the come (I think Tucker & Devers will out-earn him in '22), hoping that he surpasses them next year and beyond. Plus he has the age edge. I tend to play for the here & now, so I'll slot 'em ahead of Wander and have him 3rd. There is absolutely no wrong answer, but my pick is Tucker, Devers, Franco

439 Roanoke

2:53

AL Only Keeper league question: Any sneaky prospect bats that you could see pushing 300-400 PA's this year? Trying to snag a few young & cheap pieces to accelerate a rebuild.

Paul Sporer

2:57

How sneaky is Steven Kwan at this pt? Probably not that sneaky since he's going in deep mixers. Same probably goes for Josh Lowe (love him even more but his profile is higher than Kwan's, tbh). So moving lower in the prospect world, let's say Jose Miranda was 85th on top 100 and appears blocked in Minnesota, but if something opens, he's very intriguing. Less prospecty, but still interesting to me are Josh Naylor returning from injury in Cleveland and Derek Hill vying for time in Detroit's OF

Erik

2:57

Are you buying a repeat of Walker Buehler's 2.47 ERA despite the ERA estimators calling it a huge overachievement? I can't see any other case for putting him second despite having a K% lower than nearly every other top-20 SP unless you think he's a peripheral beater.

Paul Sporer

3:05

I almost never call for a repeat of a 2.47 outside of like peak Pedro, Johan, JV, Kersh, and deGrom (and maybe another name or 3 that I can't remember from my fantasy "career"... been playing since the mid-90s). That said, I understand your concerns but he has consistently beaten the ERA indicators and while he isn't dropping a 30% K rate, he does a great job limiting walks and hard contact so his K-BB% since 2018 is still tied for 7th-best (after rounding... I don't find 21.8% v. 22.2% to be useful, that extra precision doesn't offer anything, they're both 22%). So he slots 17th, but after rounding & ties, it's tied 7th highest (min. 300 IP).

Meanwhile his .202 AVG is 7th on its own and I don't think that's a fluke - https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=3...

Dary

3:05

Injury aside, does McCullers have another level he can reach? Has always been inefficient, is it realistic to think his control can improve?

Paul Sporer

3:05

Yes, but it requires that health to come through. Love his talent, though

Guest

3:05

I am high on O'Neil Cruz-am offering Josh Rojas and Colton Welker in a trade. What do you think?

DERALD

3:06

Not sure if you got my question-Basically Josh Rojas or Colton Welker?

Paul Sporer

3:08

Different names of the chatter, but are these related? if it's 1 of Rojas or Welker for Cruz, I'd give my trade partner their pick, though I'd prefer to keep Rojas personally. If it's for both, I'm still open to doing it, especially since you're high on Cruz.

Jacob

3:08

I’m doing my first best ball in a few weeks, how should my strategy differ from redraft? Substantially?

Paul Sporer

3:13

Yes, much different! First off, favor hitting and favor it a lotttt! With the best ball setup, you can take a lot more volatile pitching bc a lot of their bad starts will wind up on your bench. I'd elevate Cs if it's a 2-catcher format, too. They always go much higher in Razzslam which uses the best ball format at NFBC. Just for quick reference, here are my top 15 picks in Razzslam (which uses NFBC's cutline format) --

1 Tucker, Kyle OF
2 Albies, Ozzie 2B
3 Realmuto, J.T. C
4 Goldschmidt, Paul 1B
5 Martinez, J.D. OF
6 Haniger, Mitch OF
7 Cronenworth, Jake CI
8 Musgrove, Joe P
9 Taylor, Chris SS
10 Montas, Frankie P
11 Hoskins, Rhys CI
12 Moncada, Yoan 3B
13 McClanahan, Shane P
14 Valdez, Framber P
15 Benintendi, Andrew OF

PJ322

3:13

Looking more like we've been Nightengale'd again bro

Paul Sporer

3:13

Glad I didn't get too high this time

I haven't checked Twitter since chat started, what's the latest?

3:14

Peralta or Montas in a head-to-head points league for the next two years? Why?

Paul Sporer

3:16

I think Montas is built to pack on the innings a bit better over the years than Peralta so I'd lean him in a multi-year consideration. I have Peralta 19 v. Montas 22 for this year only which is essentially a coinflip, but once we start looking over multiple yrs, gimme the guy w/the deeper arsenal and body that seems better built to take the year-in, year-out wear & tear (obviously nothing guarantees health, but size can certainly play a role)

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