JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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PJ322

3:16

via MLBTR: SNY’s Andy Martino adds that ownership has become pessimistic after the union yet again rejected the notion of an international draft, which the league has sought to exchange for the elimination of draft compensation

Paul Sporer

3:16

Dang

3:17

Drafts in general aren't great bc you are taking away choice for players, but I wonder if there's a way to implement an int'l draft that doesn't completely suck shit

Paddy

3:17

How do you think the Rays lineup shakes out? Would being traded away from the Rays boost the value of guys like Meadows, Margot, or Yandy?

Paul Sporer

3:21

It would still depend on the tm bc there are plenty of other tms that would be cautious about letting Meadows get regular burn vL, too. I could see Margot landing a full-time role somewhere else, though, bc he's a true CF. Yandy could go somewhere that gives him a shot vR more than TB, but he still just doesn't lift the ball enough to take advantage of the raw power he has. I still see think KK is dealt after the lockout, which could help Margot most as well as one of Brujan/Josh Lowe

PB&Js

3:21

I haven't heard anything about Aristides Aquino this year and his ADP is in the pits. With the DH coming, is he as super sneaky 25 HR 7SB guy, with room for more?

Paul Sporer

3:26

Not sure the DH opens things up for him that much, though, bc of their crowded IF (think Moose benefits most from DH). Naquin and Friedl aren't untouchable in the OF so I hear you re: Aquino as a Draft Champions late rounder, but my expectations are tempered

Bob

3:26

Look into your crystal ball. Do you foresee rebounds for Rendon, Bellinger, LeMahieu? Thank you, Paul.

Paul Sporer

3:28

I have some optimism about all 3. Rendon rakes when healthy so I'll take a shot on him rebounding. DJLM won't get all the pop back even if healthy, but I see an AVG rebound for sure. I'm probably most skeptical about Belly's shoulder, but I have found the discount fair enough to take the shot

Jimi

3:29

Betting on a Lindor bounce back?

Paul Sporer

3:31

I am, yes. Could definitely see this season being in the vein of Beltran's first yr in NY. I could see upper-20s HR with 14-17 SBs plus a substantial rebound in AVG

FancyGraphs

3:31

Paul, Generic ranking question: are your rankings more ‘where I think they will end the year’ or ‘what order I would draft them’ (team construction not withstanding); or a combination of both?

Paul Sporer

3:33

Justin and I have had discussions about this on the pod and we've both moved toward them being more of a draft list. And bc of team construction, it can never be a STRAIGHT up 1-to-whatever draft list as I know I'll bounce around as I'm building a squad, but I don't rank someone to match or be near ADP if I don't believe in them being there and wouldn't consider taking them there.

Ben

3:33

Can you tell me something nice about Yelich? I just paid a lot for him in an auction and now I am very nervous...

Paul Sporer

3:37

Still had solid plate skills, still just 30 y/o, and while he likely won't get back to his mid-30s HR/FB of 2018-20, he has a good chance to get into the 20s if he does regain health

Jimi

3:37

Hi Paul, do you think Aaron Ashby gets a starting gig out of the gate this year? What are your thoughts on him relative to other young starters (eg, Manoah, McClanahan, Rogers, etc)? Thanks again for your expertise.

Paul Sporer

3:43

I don't think he does from day 1 barring injury to someone. Lauer and Houser did enough to keep their spots to at least start season. However, no team uses just 5 SPs all year these days so he will get a shot at some pt. I love the arm and could definitely see him wrestling the role away from Houser (espec. if Houser's 7% K-BB doesn't greatly improve).

Ashby has legit swing & miss stuff while his command & control aren't so far off that he can't find success in a consistent SP role. While I obviously want him starting more than not, I like that his backup plan is as a multi-inning RP w/great ratios & tons of Ks.. .and perhaps some sneaky Ws. Worst case is he's not ready and gets sent out but then he's a cut in most redraft formats until later in the year if/when he returns. He could certainly breakout immediately and pitch like the 3 guys you mention, though that needn't be the expectation at his draft price!

3:45

OK y'all, sorry for the late start, but I went long to cover it! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there.

I've been playing Out of the Park Baseball and we started a franchise w/the Tigers in 1992 to try & change the fate of their 90s and early-00s blight. It's been a blast remembering sooo many players from that era! Pedro fanned 456!!! batters in 2001! (https://twitch.tv/sporer if you're interested!) Have a good one, y’all!

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