JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Kate

1:58

Odds Ramon Laureano gets moved at the deadline?

Paul Sporer

1:58

2000%?

Why ask why?

1:58

Why does he like the Tigers? Why do I like the Atlanta Falcons, Little Debbie snacks, and long tub baths with romantic music and soft soap. The heart wants what the heart wants!

Paul Sporer

1:58

LOL exactlyyyyy

Curtis

1:58

I seem to remember "peak" as being around 27y.o. for a while... do you think it's still about 27?

Paul Sporer

2:01

No, I believe the aging curve has moved up just bc guys are called up earlier. I'd have to check with Jeff on the exact numbers. I think the general curve is straight down where you're your best off rip and slowly age down until your 30s when there are bigger cliffs. Obviously individuals take different trajectories, but I tend to view the 25-27 range as the hitter peak while more like 27-30 for starters. Those ages are my rough framework... not scientifically done like Jeff's aging curve stuff.

Guest

2:01

What are you doing with Rutschman right now? I'm not panicked but having a complete zero at C is not going well for my team.

Paul Sporer

2:03

You waited this long, you can't jump ship after 61 PA. Rookie Cs are an awful bet as a group, though, so temper expectations (he'll be better than this, but might be like a 90-95 wRC+ this yr). I took some Adley shots in draft & holds where you draft 4 Cs anyway, but otherwise I'm usually a hard fade on rookie Cs.

Insert Witty Name Here

2:03

Is there a good way to rank relievers in a saves+holds league? How can you assess which RP’s will get holds?

Paul Sporer

2:08

I like Shutdowns (SD) which is a Win Probability Added (WPA)-based stat that is much better than SV or HD in terms of judging actual quality. I tend to look at SD leaders for potential HD gems bc if you are getting a lot of shutdowns, you will likely be in the high leverage spots, getting HD opps and possibly also in position for vulture W or SV. Here's an RP custom board I use: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y...

2:09

Also, RP usage is a good way to root out potential HD guys. That is just day-to-day boxscore scanning to see who gets leveraged chances.

Bill

2:09

Marcus Semien went from 124th overall best player in my league all the way to 62nd after last night. That's pretty incredible at this point in the season.

Paul Sporer

2:10

It really is! Even acknowledging it's 2 gms, it's still incredible to move that much. It was so hard to cut him despite how painfully awful it had been. While I understood in 10s or shallower, I was reluctant to fully advocate for it bc even before he hit that 1st HR, I still felt he was a 20 HR/15 SB guy and it was unlikely that the wire was offering something better in most cases.

Richard

2:10

Any idea where to find info about minor league injuries? I can't find any news about Espino and it's driving me crazy.

Paul Sporer

2:10

Twitter-search in my go-to for that sorta stuff, but it's dodgy and tough to track down sometimes

Big Joey

2:11

Is Will Smith the best catcher in dynasty leagues?

Paul Sporer

2:11

Not unquestionably. Adley and Varsho have to be considered IMO. Varsho will hold C elig. at least another year and of course Adley is Adley!

BrendanMcKayDylanWalsh

2:11

Hi Paul! Looking to replace Taylor Ward in a 6x6 12 team mixed (counts walks) without consideration of any one category. I’m looking at Pham, Straw, Yaz, Grisham, and Laureano. What say you? Thanks!

Paul Sporer

2:14

I imagine you don't have specific category needs since they aren't specified here so that rules out Straw immediately for me (would only want him if SBs were a huge need) and mitigates Laureano & Pham some, too. In that case, I'd just go Yaz -- easily the best hitter of the group this yr and has the skills to sustain while hitting high in a good lineup.

Michael Harris

2:14

Defense is awesome, but zero power and his speed isn’t translating into steals. Other than in deeper dynasty leagues, time to move on?

Paul Sporer

2:15

I gotta go more than 38 PA before giving up, espec. in 12s and deeper. In 10s, I get the quick churn and I doubt he cost much anyway so that makes it easier, too. Folks spent a pretty penny in 15s and no shot I'd throw it away after just 10 gms

Dusbin7

2:15

Recommending we go down with you in a heap of flames with Grandal or finally cut bait?

Paul Sporer

2:15

I'm holding firm

4% HR/FB is just insane!!!!

2:17

And no, he's not hitting the ball as hard as last year... fine, I'm not calling for him to be that version, but I don't see any difference between this yr and his 2019-20 self outside of that ugly HR/FB.

Dan

2:17

If Andujar gets traded will he have a full time role?

Paul Sporer

2:17

Impossible to say for sure, but I doubt someone is trading for him to not play him

Ted

2:17

Pratto is on the 40 man and Pasquantino is not. Just fair warning to everyone waiting on Vinnie.

Paul Sporer

2:17

Correct and the 40 is currently full, too. Pasquantino has been MARKEDLY better, but Pratto might get the first shot due to already being on, though

stef

2:18

Should I take a shot on J Berti? I'd drop J Rojas. Need steals

Paul Sporer

2:18

he's playing a lot better than Rojas right now and Rojas has never been some burner on the bases, so yes I'd do that

Guest

2:18

Need to drop one, Votto or C. Walker.

Paul Sporer

2:22

Gah!! That's roughhhh. I meeeaaann, I guess Walker bc of the park difference. It is a PURE coinflip. I have zero confidence in a pick here, I just want to be clear

I know that's not helpful, but I can't pretend to have a strong lean on something so close

sean

2:22

thanks again for doing these. Are we buying our boy Strider as a SP in points going forward? Feed me a healthy yes!

Paul Sporer

2:24

As long as the Braves commit to this, I'm in. Season high 87 pitches last time out. If he can get a consistent 85-90, then he can be a solid 5-and-dive with occasional 6 IP spikes. 5-and-dives can be precarious as one bad inning usually sinks the start, but his upside is rich and I'm holding him everywhere I have him and seeing this through until ATL gives me a reason to stop viewing him as SP

Charlie Morton

2:24

what's wrong with me? Should I be dropped?

Paul Sporer

2:28

The thing is, he's just not that far off! He doesn't need an overhaul to be a solid mid-to-high 3s arm rest of way. A big issue is the ineffectiveness of that curve. The swinging strike rate is down 4 pts to 15%, dropping the K rate 12 pts to 28% and sending the AVG sky-high to .292 (up 165 pts!!). Until the curve gets back, he will continue to be inconsistent. I'd bench him easily, but I'm still reluctant to full on cut in 12s or deeper

Big Joey

2:28

Paul please I need to know if I should trade Cortes for Cease

Paul Sporer

2:28

I'd prefer Cease, yes

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