JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Kevin

2:29

Is Bellinger worth holding in an OBP league. The steals have been there but he has been otherwise very mediocre from a counting stats standpoint and obviously his OBP is terrible.

Paul Sporer

2:29

12-team or deeper, I'm looking to hold... I have to think there is someone worse to cut. In 10s or shallower, I'm open to moving on for him

from him*

TigersFan

2:30

Re: Snell - which core skills are you talking about? His Cy season was fueled by 88% LOB and .241 BABIP, which his SIERA of 3.30 that season shows how lucky he got (xERA even 3.15). Versus that admittedly great season, his K% is down 5 pts, BB% up 4 pts, and SIERA up almost a full run. What am I missing?

Paul Sporer

2:36

Diminishing SIERA/ERA splits as pure luck is the first issue. That's just far too simplistic. Just bc something is unsustainable doesn't mean it's pure luck. I was generally referring to his velo & swing-and-miss which just aren't far off the 2018 peak: 32% K/15% in '18; 32%/15% since '19. The 13% BB since '21 has to improve as I acknowledged.

He has a 3.80 SIERA since then, which isn't the 3.30 of '18, but again, not that far off which was my main pt. The 3.30 SIERA in '18 was 10th in MLB while the 3.80 since then is 23rd. This idea that 2018 was some kind of fraud and he's been bad since just doesn't really hold up when I look at the big picture.

Geddy

2:36

Max Muncy - time to move on - or give him 2-3 more weeks once he is activated?

Paul Sporer

2:36

Depends on league size

Nate

2:36

Think Anthony Rendon is getting toasty even when he’s healthy at this point? I’m weighing a buy low trade on him

Paul Sporer

2:38

Feels Bregmany where the perception is much worse than the actual results: 116 wRC+ with a 20 HR, 91 RBI, 8 SB pace. The 59 R pace is awful, but that's on his team more than him and his .335 OBP. I'd buy low

belt

2:38

Is McClanaGod a top 5 keeper SP value now?

Paul Sporer

2:38

he is!

Zulema

2:38

Is Myles Straw worth rostering, my league is 12? Im ok on steals but need triples.

Paul Sporer

2:38

TRIPLES?!??!

I mean, I guessssss

2:38

Votto has been himself since he came off the IL. Last 7, 15, 30 days look good.

Paul Sporer

2:38

He absolutely has! Walker has been awesome, too, though. They're very close.

Steve

2:39

Musgrove or Montas ROS? H2H leagues.

Paul Sporer

2:39

Musgrove

Zulema

2:41

Yes, I need triples its a category I need. :-) is for Not saying Walker when he's the clear choice over Votto lol

Paul Sporer

2:41

That's gotta be a tough cat to manage!! Nah I think they're razor close!

Trent R.

2:41

Are Logan Gilbert and Cortes the real deal or should we all expect some heavy regression?

Paul Sporer

2:42

Both have displayed bankable skills with strong stuff. I don't see any reason to believe either will collapse. If they do, it's an upset. I'd project for sub-4.00 ERAs the rest of the way as must-start options across all formats

El Guapo

2:42

Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. I’m happy w a bunch of my pitching pickups this season (Cortes, Wright, Gilbert, and Strider) but I’m wondering who I should worry about fading come playoff time? Anyone concern you in that group?

Paul Sporer

2:43

Strider in particular, sure, but too early to worry much about that. If you get too hung up planning that far in the future, you'll lose sight of the here and now and perhaps cost yourself even getting into the playoffs

Shlabotnik

2:43

(also in a triples league--it's tough to manage, yes, but there are clear standouts...along with players who don't necessarily rack them up but who are far likelier to get them than others.)

Paul Sporer

2:43

The latter being David Peralta?

McBoatface

2:43

Can't find a trade partner, so I'm going to have to cut Megill, Whitlock or Helsley when Megill comes back. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer

2:44

I guess i gotta cut Whitlock then. As I wrote in Boxscore Bits today, his perception as SP feels worse than the actual results. The 0 K gm really stung, but he rebounded w/5 yesterday. I still really like him, but you're in a tough spot so it's gotta be him IMO

Hank Scorpio

2:45

Are you in on the Kluber two step next week (at NYY, at BAL) in 12tm?

Paul Sporer

2:45

Yes, while holding my breath big time

I have him in a 12 and I'll be taking the plunge myself

Chucky

2:45

I have both Walker and Votto in my lineup. Votto is raking, Walker is 0 fer. Hopefully this lights a fire somewhere. Votto> Walker and it isn’t particularly close.

Paul Sporer

2:45

We have strong opinions on this one!

2:46

I know Votto is raking right now, but they are dead even 106 wRC+ so far this year And Walker has 14 HRs!!! A comically low .180 BABIP has kept Walker from an even better output as his singles aren't really falling, but he's right there with Votto for me

RAGBRAI

2:46

Hader's toast now, right? Will the Brewerss be able to hold on with what they have until their SPs are all healthy?

Paul Sporer

2:46

Wait, what???

Are you saying he's toast bc he finally gave up some runs or did some news come out?

Springs

2:47

Is Springs breaking out as a SP?

Paul Sporer

2:47

He is, yes. A much cheaper Rasmussen and might be even better, tbh

El Guapo

2:47

Awesome, thanks for the response! I am pretty loaded at SP (also have Scherzer, Webb, and Fried) and am trying to figure out who to deal for one more bat.

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