JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

3:03

Hello everyone! Sorry I had to push back a bit, but I still made it!

Concerned Dynasty Owner

3:05

Do we think Matt Brash and Jhoan Duran ever get back to being starters? Or are my shares of them in points leagues going to be very sad going forward?

Paul Sporer

3:08

Brash, I don't think so. His command just isn't there and he was so good in the pen upon his return. Plus, he didn't start when he went to Triple-A, either. I think he's a reliever now. Duran miiight be able to get out if he can find a true 3rd pitch. I'd still bet against, but it wouldn't shock me whereas I would be shocked if Brash made it back to starting

Chris

3:08

I got an email that folks in Michigan can't participate in NFBC any more. I might migrate to RT Sports. Do you have any experience with them?

Paul Sporer

3:10

Oh no, really?? That sucks! Isn't there legal betting in Michigan? I'm surprised they would bar NFBC. I have played some RTSports and have no issues w/the site! They host the industry LABR leagues, too

ScottTINSTAAPP

3:10

new year and fully getting back into the projections and draft prep grind feels so good!

Paul Sporer

3:11

Right? While I don't really take any time off from baseball, there is a tangible feeling of things really getting going after the New Year, especially as the football folks start filtering back in

steve

3:11

Am I crazy to think Andres Gimenez has 15 HR and 30 SB this year?

Paul Sporer

3:13

No that's certainly possible. He went 17/20 last yr so dialing up the SBs is absolutely in his range of outcomes

Infinity ERA

3:13

Hi Paul, where do you have Sonny Gray ranked this year? Thanks

Paul Sporer

3:17

My SP projections aren't done so this still from October, but I had him 56th in those and I'd be surprised if he moves a lot from that range (+/-5 spots)

Daniel Bardo Pond

3:17

In your Second Base Rankings you mentioned Gavin Lux has 20/20 potential. I get the SB upside - Sprint Speed and SB success rate are both excellent and the new rules should help. But where’s the power increase coming from? EVs and barrel rates aren’t great and he has over 1,000 PA now with below average power #’s. I really want to believe there’s more in the tank, just need a biiiit more convincing. Thanks, Paul!

Paul Sporer

3:29

One of the downsides of the Data Era is the inability to see beyond it for growth in players. Breakouts don't always make themselves evident in the numbers. Body changes, approach changes, and other avenues of development are still possible for Lux entering his age-25 season. He does have 1000 PA which isn't a nothing sample, but it's also spread out over four seasons, only one of which was close to a full season (last yr). He had a .270 ISO at AAA and .198 at AA so we've seen pop from him before.

Matt

3:29

What do you think is Harper's fantasy value this year?

Paul Sporer

3:30

A max of 65-70 gms of relatively standard Harper production (130 or higher wRC+)

John Olerud's Helmet

3:30

Sir Paul! All Hail Thee!! Is a George Kirby CY Young prediction too bold or not bold enough??

Paul Sporer

3:30

It's not too bold, it's a right amount of bold to me

RTJ

3:30

How do Trea Turner's counting stats change on Philly from LA ?

Paul Sporer

3:35

With the aforementioned Harper out for half the year, the Phillies lineup takes a hit and will thus be worse than the 2022 Dodgers, but if Turner shifts back to full-time leadoff then he should still have a great shot at 100+ R (a figure Schwarber reached atop the PHI lineup last yr)

DET Hopeful

3:35

Sure would love to see that the Tigers have signed Edwin Rios. Seems like a great dice roll for a team with no solid 3b yet. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer

3:37

I'm a sucker for Rios, too, and have long dreamt of what he could do just being turned loose for 500+ PA. There'd be plenty of Ks for sure, but also plenty of HRs. Maton is probably filling the strong side of the platoon over at 3B now, though, despite Rios still being available

BlueJayMatt

3:37

How does signing in Toronto affect Brandon Belts outlook?

Paul Sporer

3:42

It's a neutral park move (both home and divisonal). TOR's lineup is better than SF's, but that improvement is probably mitigated by moving to the bottom third of the lineup

Jim

3:42

Do we care about comerica dimension changes?

Paul Sporer

3:44

Definitely. They help lefties and half their lineup is left-handed, including some of their most draftable bats (Greene, Meadows... I'm not quitting Baddoo, either).

Chris

3:44

I'm not entirely clear on the details, but the email re:Michiganders and NFBC explained that due to the new law they were unable to secure a license in time to keep operating here. "With these new legalized sports betting laws, fantasy pay-to-play game operators get put into the same category as the sports betting operators and it makes it tough for us financially to make ends work, which is the case in Michigan." Fingers crossed for 2024, then

Paul Sporer

3:44

That's such a bummer, but yeah I really hope y'all retain the rights for 2024

Anonymous

3:44

Bummer Carlos Correa won't be padding the 3B ranks this year, but what can you do. Jose Ramirez at 1.1 defensible again?

Paul Sporer

3:45

Agreed re: Correa! That would've been a great boost to the weak upper crust at the hot corner. J Ram definitely defensible even if 3B wasn't light, but does add a tinge of 1.1 intrigue due to the lack of gems there

v2micca

3:45

Is Mike Soroka still just a waiver wire pickup this year, or could he actually be worth one of the final draft picks?

Paul Sporer

3:46

Right now just waiver wire in anything that is a standard setup (obviously draftable in 50 round Draft Champions), but if he looks good in Spring, I like him as a reserve pickup

Magic

3:46

What is the biggest surprise you've encountered during your attempt at creating your own projections?

Paul Sporer

3:49

I kinda knew this from other projection makers, but it is stunning seeing up close & personal what a little move in a category or two can do to a player's overall projected $$. I give someone 7 RBI and 2 SB and he moves up 6 spots! It obviously depends where they are in the ranking and all that, but it's wild! I've been having a blast with it and it's really helping me learn more about the player pool. Long process, but I'm lucky enough to have that time and it's part of my job as opposed to having to do it in addition to a standard 9-5. SS miiiight be out today after the chat as I'm finishing the write ups, but if not today then 100% tomorrow bc the #s are done

Jim

3:49

Am I full of BS? Kyle Gibson 2023 line. 12-7. 3.66 era, 1.26 whip. 171 innings.

Paul Sporer

3:49

Justin, put your actual name in the chat, you don't have to hid as "Jim"

3:51

Jokes aside, the new Camden could be an absolute godsend for Gibby and while I wouldn't put that as the expectation, it's a fair upside. I'd be interested in curating his outings to avoid the toughest parks or even just straight up home-only

Pete

3:51

In a 16-team league, is Kerry Carpenter worth taking a low-cost flier on?

Paul Sporer

3:54

I think so, especially with the aforementioned changes in Comerica. He had the breakout power season w/30 HR in the minors last yr (though 22 were at AA as a 24 yr old which is a bit old for the level) and stood tall during his MLB cup of coffee with another 6 HR in 113 PA. He has a bead on the strong side platoon role at DH where he could pop mid-20s HRs.

Anonymous

3:55

Your 1B pod got me thinking: if Volume is king, maybe you like everyone at 1B this year because it's the easiest position to load up on PA. Do you fall *that* far behind in SB with 1Bs at CI and Util?

Paul Sporer

3:56

I think you can definitely maneuver around that and secure the SBs up the middle and OF. I'm very open to the idea of stud 1B, 2nd tier 1B at CI, and 3rd or 4th tier 1B at UT. As I'm sure you could tell, Justin & I loved the position so I like that idea

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