JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Pat L

4:01

Teoscar Hernandez, Taylor Ward or JD Martinez for 2023 in 6x6 Roto with OPS?

Paul Sporer

4:06

I'm still very big on Ward. The shoulder injury really hampered his summer but once he got healthy again, he raked in September. A healthy Ward has massive upside in that lineup (assuming the other key pieces stay healthy, too, of course) and I'm targeting him a good bit this year

diadem

4:06

What do you expect from Rodolfo Castro?

Paul Sporer

4:11

Intriguing deep league play who will be held back by the lineup in terms of R/RBI, but I have him down for 24 HR/8 SB as a full-timer. I see Steamer has him for just 99 games, but I think Pittsburgh turns him loose to see if he can build upon his decent 2022 run

Jasper

4:11

Good tidings Paul! You and Justin frequently remind chatters/readers/listeners that there is not a ban on shifting, just a limit, but I still feel like not having three guys on one side of the infield or a 2B out in short RF is going to have a positive impact on lefty pull hitters who consistently hit the ball hard. Fans may be over-stating the impact, but perhaps you guys are under-stating it?

Paul Sporer

4:15

I don't think we're understating it so much as just not stating anything definitive while others are banking on Guy X or Y having some huge impact from it. It's just more of an unknown to us, especially as to who will benefit. There will be some guys who have MAJOR changes but guessing who is really tough given the nature of year over year batted ball distributions

Maris

4:15

How solid is Sean Murphy in Atlanta with d'Arnaud around?

Paul Sporer

4:17

It's a definite volume hit, but the park & lineup improvements should not only balance that out but also result in a net positive (plus it's not like TdA is Mr. Heathy)

Hank

4:17

It’s nonsense that we can put a man on the moon but can’t find a way to have Ohtani’s offense and pitching stats both count in weekly leagues.

Paul Sporer

4:18

I think at this point sites aren't trying bc ppl think he'd be too overpowered which I think is kinda silly. Let him cook! Yes he'd be the unquestioned 1.1, ok so? Maybe we shift to 3rd round reversal as the standard for Ohtani's prime then? Meaning it goes 1-10 (or however many tms you have) in the 1st, 10-1 in the 2nd and then 10-1 again in the 3rd before picking up as a standard snake again in the 4th

Real Deal?

4:19

Happy new year, Paul! While the man is clearly young and talented, is Spencer Strider absurdly overhyped or properly hyped? Same in dynasty context? Thank you again.

Paul Sporer

4:20

I totally get the hype. He's amazing. Yes, it's just 2 pitches, but they're both AMAZING. And that kind of swing and miss stuff is sooo valuable. I understand some will have pause simply bc he has just the 1 season under his belt, but the talent is unimpeachable and I see why some are ranking him in their top 5 SPs

Magic

4:21

What is the fantasy hill you think you'll be dying on this season?

Paul Sporer

4:22

I don't know if it's something I'm dying on (in that I'm not sure anyone is attacking me for it), but I refuse to overreact to pitcher injury risk. Or rather, I refuse to give the perceived healthy pitchers any sort of substantive boost over the ones deemed injury risks. There is no such thing as a safe pitcher. Draft the best talent and hope you can stay healthy.

Suzan

4:22

Do you know when each of the projection systems will hit Fangraphs?

Paul Sporer

4:24

I do not, I will see if there is any info on that. Perhaps Derek Carty (https://twitter.com/DerekCarty) and Ariel Cohen (https://twitter.com/ATCNY) could offer some insight on when their stuff would be ready if you give 'em a shout on Twitter!

Jose Siri

4:24

Steamer loves me! Are you buying it? (240 avg/17 hr /17 sb in 453 at bats). It puts him as a top 100 hitter (#98).

Paul Sporer

4:33

I see the pwr/spd upside, but I have concerns about whether or not TB will commit to him unless he strongly improves the 33% K rate, especially since he doesn't walk at all to mitigate the pain of that swing-and-miss. As a pick around 300, the risk is covered in the price, but he's not someone I'd push up all that much based on the Steamer projection. Just too risky w/the ugly plate skills

Hank

4:33

Have Strider for a $1 in my keeper…you don’t need any other details to know that’s exciting!!!

Paul Sporer

4:34

That's so sick!!!

4:34

Over or under on 5 starts at 2B again for Mookie Betts?

Paul Sporer

4:35

Under. Just so hard to bet on something so fluky like that (though it has happened 2 yrs in a row).

Craig

4:35

Do you foresee Zac Gallen repeating the success he had last season? Solid reduction in BB/9 from 2021 to 22. Does he have room to take another leap?

Paul Sporer

4:39

Another leap is tough to see bc then you're talking slam dunk Cy Young winner (as he was the 6th SP last yr). He will almost certainly regress from the mid-2s ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP, but that doesn't mean he can't be great again. And from a fantasy value standpoint, better support from his team (12 Ws last yr) could counterbalance the ERA/WHIP regression and keep him firmly in the Top 10 SPs.

TooDamnTall

4:39

Is there a landing spot for Sano that actually makes him appealing in fantasy?

Paul Sporer

4:40

Not really, IMO. Obviously the standard Cincy and Coors would be great parks but do either have any reason or the lineup space to commit to him? I just don't really see it right now

4:40

Steamer has Vinnie P only playing in 130 games. Does this feel pretty light outside of a complete flop? If he plays 145-150, could he squeeze into your Matt Olson tier?

Paul Sporer

4:45

Yeah that shocked me a bit, too. I put him down for 145 and even that might be a bit light as he dominated lefties in his MLB sample and shouldn't be subject to any platooning. With health, he can be a 150+ guy

4:46

OK y'all, I have to get going! Back to the projections! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one and I'll be back next week at the standard time of 1pm CT

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