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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:34

I inexplicably forgot yesterday was Wednesday... no joke. I'm an old idiot. Anyway, didn't want miss this week so let's rock!

Guest

1:34

hey, paul!

in an obp league with slg added. trying to choose between keeping nootbaar at $5 and jorge polanco at $5. thoughts?

Paul Sporer

1:38

I lean toward Noot as I have the pair pretty close, but Noot having more upside. My HR/SB/AVG for them are close while Noot gets a healthy OBP boost and then close again on SLG. We have Noot batting 6th rn, but if he moves back up, then his R/RBI can exceed Polanco for sure

Larry

1:38

What's your confidence level in Acuna returning to the stud he was before the knee injury?

Paul Sporer

1:40

Pretty high. He's my #1 overall by projection, barely over Judge and J-Ram (all of whom I can take at 1.1) and I think a year removed from the injury should help Acuña get back some pop while hopefully continuing to run. 40/40 is very much in play, though obviously that's the upside, not the projection/expectation

Guest

1:40

Jordan Walker for Marcelo Mayer and Henry Davis. Who says no?

Paul Sporer

1:41

Probably the Walker manager with reports that he has a real shot to break camp

Farhandrew Zaidman

1:41

You see Gavin Lux show up to dodger stadium with biceps that look like tree trunks? We buying a breakout year?

Paul Sporer

1:44

I was already in! Here's my bit on him from the 2B rankings: I know some are done with Gavin Lux, which I can understand as the 25-year-old has just a .712 OPS in 1003 MLB PA with 11 HR and 8 SB per 600 PA, but I still think there’s more growth for the one-time Top 5 prospect. Like Stott, he’s dual eligible (2B, OF) with 20/20 potential and an ADP outside the Top 200 (pick 225 in winter drafts)... I think there is major upside for him!

Greg

1:44

Hey Paul, in a points league that values R/RBI, would you trade Witt for Vlad Jr? My MIF is very deep - Bichette, Witt and Henderson - and I have nothing at 1B. Would you make that deal?

Paul Sporer

1:44

I have absolutely no problem with that deal, especially given your situation!

TriplesAlley

1:44

What’s your opinion on where Nico Hoerner’s power will settle in? Can he get to 15-20 HR?

Paul Sporer

1:47

I'm pretty dubious on that right now barring a change that unlocks an extra level. He has a strong chance to deliver single-digit HRs this yr and while I can see low double-digits, I'd be really surprised if he surpassed 15 now or in the future

Rich Carlson

1:47

How do hitters usually fair going from NL to AL? the conventional wisdom is that the AL was a breaking ball league while NL was hard stuff. What are your thoughts on Kopech this year. Breakthrough or no?

Paul Sporer

1:49

I haven't seen or done an analysis on NL to AL hitters in quite some time and absolutely remember those same adages from when I was a kid. I think the entire league throws hard and has nasty breaking & off-speed stuff. It used to be more focused on NL SPs where you take them over AL counterparts strictly due to the lack of DH, but even that gap has closed. Specific teams & parks move the needle way more for me than AL/NL

Just Me

1:49

Need cut one OF in a 6X6 roto with OPS, Avasail Garcia, Cutch or Blackmon?

Paul Sporer

1:54

I think it's gotta be Cutch there. I like that he's going back to Pittsburgh for the nostalgia of it, but his AVG holds him back in this trio and PNC Park is unlikely to help that. Avi was BRUTAL in Y1 with Miami, but I do like him for a bounce back and Blackmon remains protected by Coors

Guest

1:57

5x5 roto. I can keep Jeffrey Springs for 9, Luzardo for 4 or Joe Ryan for 7. These seem like similarly ranked pitchers. Not sure if you favor one over the rest. Thanks!

Paul Sporer

2:01

Yep, it's really close so I'm just going to take the savings with Luzardo.

Greg

2:02

Hey Paul, long question here. I have a loaded dynasty roster, but I'm trying to figure out my next step and how to maximize my situation. I have Tatis, Bichette, Witt, Henderson, Riley, Bregman. We start a SS, 3B, MIF, CI and have a utility slot, which means one of those guys is on the bench. Tatis obviously can shift to CF or RF, but I have Trout and Harper there. I could hold pat and go into the regular season as is, but I'm trying to figure out how to maximize this opportunity and sell someone from that group of infielders. Some targets I've started trade conversations on are Vlad Jr., Acuna, Alonso, Nola, Fried, Cease, Woodruff. How would you proceed in this situation? I can talk myself into going into so many directions but struggling to come up with the best option.

Paul Sporer

2:03

I think I'd probably hold this year so you don't leave yourself short given that Tatis is guaranteed to miss 20 gms finishing his suspension and Harper is out half the year. So I don't think a move is necessary as you shouldn't have to put a stud on the bench. I'm certainly not averse to trading for a stud, but I wouldn't bend over backwards to do it

Chucky

2:04

Dynasty, keep 10 forever, no contracts. I’m actually toying with the idea, absent a trade, of keeping George Kirby over Nola. Thoughts? Which ONE gets the boot in the same league, Robert, Gunnar or Corbin Carrol?

Paul Sporer

2:07

I really like Kirby, but I'm not sure I can get him over Nola just yet, even in dynasty. You seem ripe for an upgrade trade, though, packaging Nola/Gunnar/someone for a top 3-5 overall kind of guy? Assuming a team with one of those uber-studs has the space, of course. I know saying "do a trade" can be annoying advice as it's hard to make trades so absent a trade, I'd still prefer Nola over Kirby and then I'm cutting Gunnar from that trio

Kyle

2:07

I think both you and Justin said you were creating projections this year - would you be able to share $ amounts with us? Perhaps as a complement to your rankings.

Paul Sporer

2:07

Yes they will be coming once they're all done!

TXFan

2:07

Does Jose Leclerc go wire to wire as Rangers closer?

Paul Sporer

2:10

He had a really sharp 2H so I can't rule it out, but I'm also a Jonathan Hernandez stan so I've been getting some shares of him in 50-rounders. I do think Leclerc is clearly the guy right now, but there are very few closers I'm comfortable tabbing as wire-to-wire guys on January 19th and Leclerc is not one of them

Cedric Mullins

2:10

Is it hard to be podcast partners with someone so brilliant and funny?

Paul Sporer

2:10

I wouldn't know, better question for my co-host Justin, tbh

Best Ball

2:10

Best ball drafting is getting harder lately IMO. Many fewer players with full playing time

Paul Sporer

2:10

Definitely opens it up a bit more for sure

Dave

2:11

In terms of RBI/run production, would you rather have a great player on a low-scoring team like the Pirates or Nationals or a merely good player on the Dodgers or Yankees?

Paul Sporer

2:11

Probablyyy the great player because we've seen dudes go 90/90 or even 100/100 on crap teams so gimme the pure talent

Brandon Marsh

2:13

Am I this year's Cedric Mullins?

Paul Sporer

2:13

Imagine lucking into your best call ever and having it be set up as the perfect opportunity for an anticipated yearly article only to not take advantage of it..... just imagine that!

Josh Rojas

2:14

Let's say you were flying to California this weekend and were going to have brunch with your friend and his wife and kids, how big of a pancake would you eat?

Paul Sporer

2:14

Relatively big though I prefer the FAR superior waffle

Jeff

2:14

Hi Paul, last season wins held me back from winning our 5x5 league. Any tips for this season? Just stick with established veterans? Seems so hard with starters throwing shorter outings and plenty of middle inning guys. Thanks!

Paul Sporer

2:15

They are a pain in the ass these days, more so than ever before, but yeah I wouldn't make hard adjustments to my strategy bc of their volatility. Better teams present more chances, of course, but your exact same guys from last year could feasibly pop 8-10 more wins this year on variance alone

Guest

2:15

How do you do projections? Did you design some kind of system or is it more manual?

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