JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

2:15

Fully manual, researching every player by hand like a newb ass newb

Guest

2:15

Do you start with their steamer/zips etc projections and then adjust, or go in blind?

Paul Sporer

2:16

There is a baseline in the Tanner Bell Smart Fantasy Baseball spreadsheet that I use, yes, but I still essentially start from scratch on my Excel and move the numbers over. It's nice to have a guard rail of those (which I think are Steamer) just in case anything is completely off base

David (formerly Sonoma State University)

2:17

Please help me convince my 10-team fantasy baseball league to go NL-only instead of total MLB. There were exactly 2 trades made all year…..

David (formerly Sonoma State University)

2:17

I am also an old idiot - it’s an 8 team league, not 10, which makes it even more dire. Plz advise.

Paul Sporer

2:18

I guess if you can get what you need off the wire, trades just aren't as plentiful, I hear that. If it's a league that has thrived on trading in the past, I do think shifting to NL or AL (I'd imagine you said NL specifically for a reason) would certainly bring in some deficiencies that would need to be met via trade. Have you started the ball rolling on a discussion yet?

Max_Mantis

2:22

Does ATL really roll with Grissom as starting SS? Seems risky for a contender, especially on defense.

Paul Sporer

2:22

Seems like it! Justin and I aren't a huge fan and I could definitely see Orlando Arcia getting a decent bit of playing time especially given Grissom's glove. Elvis Andrus could be a fit for them, too

Guest

2:24

So I was listening to the negative comments on Gunnar on the pod, but after Bregman, if you need a 3b, who the hell you taking? Plus who goes after him that is a better bet?

Paul Sporer

2:27

Max Muncy for sure for me and then I'd probably just rather take the price difference on Ke'Bryan Hayes and Josh Jung over the premium for Henderson. Wrote up Muncy today, btw https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/max-muncy-got-his-groove-back

Max Munchies

2:27

Keep two of Trea Turner, Kyle Tucker, Manny Machado. Standard 5x5 plus total bases. 3B looks like a top heavy position, but do I leave the goodness of Tucker or Turner to draft chance?

Paul Sporer

2:29

Agreed on not loving 3B, but I have to go Trea/Tuck! Depending on your draft spot, maybe you get Manny back?

Sean

2:29

Listened to the 2B pod yesterday, think it's one of those spots where you guys could've drawn a distinction between the 15/12 team crowds. In 12s, it feels like the big-middle, makes it the perfect place to wait a grab a couple of players with good upside and floor (Estrada, Lowe, McNeil, Marte, India, McMahon (10Gs), Grissom, Stott, Gorman). What do you think?

Paul Sporer

2:33

That's fair, though I concur with the big middle for both formats. I acknowledged a 24-player cluster in my intros ranking that isn't too dissimilar ranging from one Urias to the next: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-second-base-rankings/

RAH

2:33

How much risk do you assign Jesse Winker this year?

Paul Sporer

2:34

I think his standard annual injury risk is built into his price (pick 272 ADP) with no premium attached to the improved home park. You couldn't pay me to take him leaving CIN for SEA last year, but now I'm back in at the discount. MIL isn't quite CIN, but it's a helluva lot better than SEA!!

Does Chewbacca use TP?

2:34

should I take a flyer on Alki Baddoo again this year? Should I seek counseling for asking this?

Paul Sporer

2:38

LOLOL you're in a safe space for that question. There is ZERO price attached and I'm going back to the well in deep leagues!

Guest

2:38

Gavin lux had been obscenely highly touted as a prospect, is there room for power growth or was that just ye old juice ball

Paul Sporer

2:39

It's power time, baby!

No. 9 putting in work.

Guest

2:39

Gunnar walked 12% of the time and has SS eligibility, pedigree and no K issues, we will see

Paul Sporer

2:43

I don't think he's bad, just not a top 100 pick yet. What's your projection for him? I don't see a ton of speed, solid pop (upper-teens, low-20s) and a decent AVG. I kinda regret the Vaughn Grissom bit we did as it was only meant to highlight that we think he's over-priced, but I do think he's easily better than Grissom this year

Art

2:43

Why are people picking arozarena, mullins and adolis over Carroll? It seems like the only rookies who sucked are the covid developments guys, plus who other than Tatis and Carroll can be 1st rounders next year

Paul Sporer

2:47

Plenty of other guys could emerge into 1st rounders, but Carroll's skills are loud! I'm definitely not taking Adolis over him. The other 2 have track record and we just haven't see it from Carroll yet, plus he can't hit lefties, which puts a heavy burden on his work vR to drive the major breakout his backers are predicting. The market loves him for someone with such a scant MLB track record as the 17th OF and top 75 overall. His min is pick 49 which puts him above that whole trio so maybe that was your pick?

Asker

2:47

You ever met Adrienne from Yoga with Adrienne in Austin?

Paul Sporer

2:47

Austin is pretty big, I don't know everyone here lol

Sean

2:48

I know profile is a little boring, but Luis Garcia feels undervalued. He has a solid PT leash, multi-eligible, should hit for a good average in a good spot in the Nats lineup and could threaten 20/10. Am I right?

Paul Sporer

2:48

yes, I think he's got some sneaky deep league value!

Sean

2:48

Maybe I misunderstood, I thought you were both saying that you preferred to hit the top of the market at the position and avoid the middle.

Paul Sporer

2:48

I think that was Justin. I like a lot of those 2B in the middle and think there'll be some interesting potential breakouts

RAH

2:49

Do you think Carlson will be a fair shake to rebound in STL? Do you think he'll even begin the season in STL?

Paul Sporer

2:51

Well the news of Jordan Walker having a good shot at breaking camp (https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-1-17-23/) clouds DC's outlook a bit, though I don't Juan Yepez is guaranteed anything specifically. I'm still a Carlson fan and even in last year's crap season, he was above avg (106 wRC+). I'd be surprised if they just quit him and I'm not going to either with his affordable 320 ADP

Matt

2:51

Hey thanks for saying hi at Fall League, cool seeing you and Jason in person after all the pods. I got two hats, rafters and scorpions, what is your fav logo now that they have new logos?

Paul Sporer

2:52

Of course! I love hanging out with folks at AFL every year. I hope you make it back again in '23! Scorpions is my favorite and I also had to get a hat of theirs!

Paul

2:52

Hey same name, isn't it annoying searching for Luis Garcia on Fangraphs?

Paul Sporer

2:53

LOL it's been so tough! But I think there's a new trick... Washington's has the accent over his name of the 2 who've played 2020-2022 and the other is the Houston pitcher!

Kyle

2:53

~~~~~~~~~BEWARE: AKIL BADDOO SAFE SPACE~~~~~~~

Paul Sporer

2:53

Always!!

new to this

2:53

Last year Torkelson seemed to hit the ball hard, with a decent launch angle (15) and barrel rate (8.4). He walked a bit and and didn't K off the charts. Yet his xBA and xSLG were both miserable. Why?

Paul Sporer

2:54

I really don't know. I watched damn near every Tigers game and he absolutely looked the part of a major leaguer sans the uninspiring results. I'm not bailing on him, it might just have been a straight up bad year. New dimensions could help a tinge, too, though they are better for lefty hitters

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