JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:04

Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Dave

1:04

I think Bryson Stott was one of your 2B breakouts in the pre-season and so far he's put up numbers. But... they seem fueled by an unsupportable BABIP. How do you feel about him going forward?

Paul Sporer

1:09

The BABIP and AVG will definitely come down, but he's delivering fantasy juice, too, w/the 2 HR & 3 SB and I still think he'll be a strong double-double (10+ HR/SB) with a solid AVG

Ben

1:09

Any worries on Bradish in season ong

Paul Sporer

1:10

Not really, got merked by a good team when he lost his command

Sir Chatsworth

1:12

Mr. Sporer, I am in the unfortunate circumstance of needing to drop an SP due to a roster crunch. Shall it be Mason Miller of the Oakland A's, or Kodai Senga of the New York Mets?

Paul Sporer

1:12

Senga over Miller for me

Steve

1:12

Kelenic sell high? Hitting lefties has me believing

Paul Sporer

1:13

If you can get legitimate help for you team, I'm open to it, but there is a lot to like in this early surge. I wasn't buying in off the Spring Training but he's looking reallyyyyy sharp rn

Ozuna from the Braves

1:13

Is Jarren Duran legit? His LD% is way up

Paul Sporer

1:15

Far too small of a sample for the LD rate to have any legitimacy yet. That .524 BABIP is off the charts & will come down massively. I'm still worried about the Ks

Eovaldi

1:15

Am I breaking out at age 33 limiting walks? Siera, K/BB, Pitching+ all look great

Paul Sporer

1:16

This early success is in line 2020-22 and even 2018 before that. It's almost always a matter of health with him, not actual skill

Bruce Live in 2023

1:16

Good afternoon Paul, Is Jon Gray a drop in a 12 mixed? I don't see any upside.

Paul Sporer

1:18

Always depends who you're picking up, but if you're going for Tanner Bibee or something, I get it

Edward Von Chattington IV

1:18

Taylor Ward's performance has been subpar. Does he pick it up, or is he just not that good?

Paul Sporer

1:20

Feels like an overreaction to the low AVG which seems largely BABIP-related (.273). He has 3 HR/1 SB which is perfectly fine at this juncture. 0 concerns w/Ward

Michael

1:22

Listening/reading fantasy analysts are fun and helpful, but feels like every year there is hype around guys, in this example minor league stashes, and others are sort of forgotten or not mentioned (McClanahan, Taj, Mason) and then they’re pumped up like they’re absolute studs AFTER their first performances. Wouldn’t it be more helpful to hype these guys too? How can these names just jump over names you hyped for weeks or months because of one start? It makes it impossible for us to snag PRIOR to production, which is why we turn to analysts. Thanks

Paul Sporer

1:25

It's impossible to be on everybody plus players are always changing so I'm not entirely sure I get the beef here. Plus if you look across the industry, I'm sure somebody was on any guy who pops off. Also never know when prospects are going to be called up so can't just gas 'em all constantly.

Ron Hassey's Gigantic Face

1:25

Been offered B. Lowe and S. Lugo for Semien. Walk away or take it?

Paul Sporer

1:26

Can take it if you need an arm. Make sure to include league type & scoring for better answers!

Bill

1:27

Rodon was dropped in mixed league 15 teamer…have open IL spot…how aggressive would you be w FAAB? do you expect same effectiveness as last 2 years once he gets on field?

Paul Sporer

1:28

I'd be pretty aggressive, especially if I need an arm. Hard to say how effective he'll be coming off injury, but the chance to get a legit ace off the waiver wire doesn't happen often, so get ready to put some chips in

Jimmy

1:28

Can a guy like Josh Lowe with a 30%+ career K rate suddenly fix that and become a sustainable 20-25%?

Paul Sporer

1:32

This could be asked of Kelenic, too. The key for me is there swinging strike rate. Kelenic's is down 5 pts compared to last yr and Lowe's is down 3 pts. Those are worthy moves that give their K% drops some viability... next key is how they respond to their first cold snap. Do they fall back into old habits and push their K% all the way back up or do they hold the gains? Still too early to say either is fully changed, but encouraging enough to be excited

Joey

1:32

Is Zack McInstry a break-out this year?

Paul Sporer

1:33

I'd love that. The PT will be there if he performs and we're seeing enough results to make him a deep lg reserve for now

RTJ

1:34

Becoming increasingly worried about my first rounder Machado. Is there hope that it's just a slow start?

Paul Sporer

1:35

Hasn't even been a month. Semien didn't hit a HR for 44 gms last yr & still had 26. That's just a one-off example, but there are superstars who have bad Aprils every year. Machado is a complete set-it-and-forget-it. We'd have to get to June before I'd have any concerns about him

1:36

Are you okay dropping grayson for steele as an sp6 in a 12 team roto?

Paul Sporer

1:36

No one else you can cut? If not, I'm OK w/it. Stunned that Steele is available in a 12

Guest

1:36

glad I started Bibee today

Paul Sporer

1:37

He's looking great so far!

John

1:37

What are you doing with mikolas?

Paul Sporer

1:38

4.51 SIERA says he's not thaaaat far off the guy we expect (4.13 SIERA from 2018-22) so if you want to sit until the .402 BABIP smooths out, I get it, but I'm reluctant to cut him in 15s. Can cut in 12s as there are likely some spicy offerings on the wire (Bibee?) but he'll likely get picked back up at some pt

B'ryce Szymbobski

1:39

Paul, my man! The man with the answers! Hope you're doing FANTASTIC today.

Should I drop either of Seiya/Kellenic for Gallo in a shallow points league? I'm thinking right now that those guys have more upside, but I keep remembering that one summer when Gallo was JOEY FRICKIN GALLO.

Paul Sporer

1:39

No no, I'm definitely holding both

Bert

1:39

Buying low on Alek Thomas?

Paul Sporer

1:40

Yessss. I'm regretting my early cut in a deep lg. I did get a good stream week from Franchy when he faced all those righties, but I really liked Thomas coming into draft season and regret my impatience. I knew he'd play bc of his glove and should've given his bat time to see where it's at.

John

1:40

ESPN Points. Juan Soto owner is looking to trade him away, he's interested in my Steven Kwan, should I do it?