JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:40

if you can 1-for-1 that, heck yes

Guest

1:40

Really annoying to think the Rays could have 3 Lowes right now

Paul Sporer

1:40

LOL, right? Josh & Nate are bros, too, so they broke up the brothers!

Guest

1:40

The Ashcraft Spring Training hype seems not to be manifesting in regular season results. Should I cut him before the ERA catches up to the walk-inflated FIP and xFIP numbers?

Paul Sporer

1:41

Definitely depends who you're picking up, but yeah it's another start of good ERA, but shaky skills. There's a world where the skills catch up, too, but that's far from a guarantee.

1:42

BRB - gotta let the pup out

totally reasonable

1:47

Should I drop Gerrit Cole for Bibee?

Paul Sporer

1:47

Definitely!!!

Wil Myers

1:47

Do you still believe in me?

Paul Sporer

1:53

I do, I'm still holding in 15s. They're scoring 5.1 R/G at home, so if you want to downgrade to home-only for now, I get. I still see this offense as a rich environment for fantasy stats. Could be mid-May when it kicks into high gear with a 19-gm stretch that only includes 2 road trips and 1 is Coors (other is Miami). It's also followed by series at the Cubs & Red Sox, so the hitting could keep going in both of those venues.

If we're dragging a low-.600s OPS for Myers this time next month, then yeah, it's to move on, but I'm going to give him and my other Reds (Fraley, Stephenson, Steer) a real chance to leverage one of the main reasons I drafted them: that home park! I believe they're on talented on their own and the park allows them to eat, it's not that the park has to make them.

Guest

1:53

benched Torres for the first time all year... homers. of course.

Paul Sporer

1:54

Oh man, that's tough!

Joe

1:54

Pfaadt or Bibee?

Paul Sporer

1:58

Bibee. Right now, his being up is a huge advantage, though I know it's rumored that Pfaadt will get the call this weekend. So if both are up come Sunday when most weekly leagues run their moves, I'll still favor Bibee, but it's close and I'd gladly "settle" for Pfaadt where available if you think the Bibee bids are going to be insane.

Guest

1:58

Thanks for answering questions today. If I need to drop one of George Kirby, Jose Berrios, Martin Perez, Graham Ashcraft, or Zach Eflin, whom should it be.

Paul Sporer

2:08

Kirby isn't a consideration here. From there, I really like what Berrios is doing and I'm ready to be hurt again! Perez/Ashcraft/Eflin, although Eflin might be a level above the other two now that he's back. So then we're down to Perez and Ashcraft. Both are getting it done without the prettiest skills screaming a pending regression to the mean as hinted by their SIERA's (MP: 4.36, GA: 4.48 coming into today and I doubt it got better) so they're really team streamer types and maybe you can duck the impending poor starts by picking the right spots. From there, we got to upcoming schedule and team support. The latter is an easy win for Perez but the former is closer with MP v. NYY then at LAA and GA at SD then home v. NYM. Not sure either is much of a winner there. So I come with a slight edge to Perez. It's a 50/50 choice. Pardon the long answer, but wanted to explain my process of getting there instead of just Perez. Plus, it highlights how close it really is and probably a 52/48 kind of decision

Maed Man

2:09

Maeda not so good today. Ober coming back? Simeon WR in the rotation?

Paul Sporer

2:09

They gotta go to Ober, right?

Dave

2:09

Any concerns that age/usage are catching up with Sal Perez? Def not dropping him yet, but trying to decide whether to use a roster spot to pick up Heim as insurance

Paul Sporer

2:11

Nah he's good for a dud month most seasons outside of that blistering 2021, look at his May last yr. I don't hate the Heim insurance just bc I love Heim, but I do think Sal will still get his

Joe

2:12

Do the Brewers really have a top park factor now with Coors and GABP?

Paul Sporer

2:14

Nah, too noisy this early to say that it's a new launching pad. That said, they've always been a solid HR park so this is likely just a loud blip that we could find in any given season for a park that consistently has 115-130 HR Park Factors.

Guest

2:14

Is Spencer Steer a starter in a 12-team 5X5 league?

Paul Sporer

2:14

It's borderline, but he'll have streaks where even 10-teamers are picking him up. I do believe that mid-May run I mentioned earlier re: the Reds could be a huge run for a bunch of their guys

Sean

2:15

I know you like Jung but his K% is so high. Need a 3B drop among him Hayes and Baty.

Paul Sporer

2:18

Yeah I was definitely thinking we'd some real K% improvement and while it is down 5 pts, it's only down to 33%. Pop is there, though, so I'm still riding with him as long as today's hand injury doesn't cause him any missed time. With the other two, I'd let team weaknesses dictate that pick. Hayes if I could use AVG/SB (his .256 BABIP will rise) or more of a pure power/low AVG bat then it's Baty.

RAH

2:23

Can Jose Abreu still crack 20 HR or is he cooked?

Paul Sporer

2:25

Not with this iteration of his power output, but I'm reluctant to give up just yet. Definitely need to see it start turning relatively soon

Jeff

2:26

Nice day in Texas right Paul? Hey I need Smyly to keep on being good after picking him up this week. What say you?

Paul Sporer

2:26

Little bit of rain, but otherwise great weather! I think Smyly is another one of those who's talent isn't really the question, but rather it's the health. As long as he's upright, there's reasonable expectation of success in most matchups

jordan

2:27

hey paul… do you like Logan Allen or Tanner Bibee more? thx

Paul Sporer

2:28

Bit higher on Bibee, but I love CLE pitchers so I'd take either

Dave

2:28

Is Verlander going to go out and throw a 90-pitch perfect game when he returns to the mound at CoPa next week?

Paul Sporer

2:28

That'd be amazingggg

Quest

2:28

Hey Paul, you dropping any current SPs for guys like Bibee and LTAllen? Looking at Elder, Syndergaard, Whitlock, and MMiller.

Paul Sporer

2:29

Would drop Thor for either. I've always been a Thor guy, but he's just not particularly reliable start-to-start and both of these prospects have a chance to be impact arms. They'll have their bumps like any pitcher, let alone rookie, but it's not at all difficult to envision either or perhaps even both becoming all-leagues relevant

Wes

2:29

Is Kopech just terrible, or is there reason to hope that he can be somewhere close to average?

Paul Sporer

2:31

I cut in the Main Event this week. He'll likely have at least some bouts of streamer viability, but there's no need to hold right now

Michael

2:31

In response to your answer re: minor league names, it's not about being on EVERYONE but can't recall any mention Mason Miller and Taj bradley definitley not one of the top names hyped on pod. Simply asking how can these guys be so great after you see them once if you didnt find them great prior? You preach "its only one game" or "one start" but after Taj debut he jumps over every other prospect arm?? It'd be nice to know how much you like them or COULD like them when we have the chance to keep over guys you're all over in preseason just to be passed up over a 5inn start

Paul Sporer

2:35

I wrote up Bradley here - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2023-re-draft-top-25-dyna... -- it wasn't much, but explained where I was coming into the season. And then when he was called up, we discussed him on the pod. Some guys I'm just going to wait to assess once they're up bc of bandwidth. I had even less of an idea what to expect from a guy with like 30 pro innings under his belt since 2021 (Mason Miller). There are wonderful prospect pods that do a great job of keeping you abreast of all these guys and many more. I'll do one-offs like this prospect pitcher pod but my bandwidth goes primarily to MLBers. I try to expand my prospect knowledge yearly, it's just not my main focus

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