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Ober-reaction

2:41

I mean he's always been homer-prone, and he's on pace to go 7...

Karl Hungus

2:42

Tommy Pham is having a day

Paul Sporer

2:42

A better team would probably be rocking him, tbh. It's really only Pham smoking him right now lol

Eloper

2:42

If Loperfido gets full PT in Houston, how deep a league is he an add? OBP vs AVG matter?

Paul Sporer

2:43

Definitely jumping on board in 15s. It's more team-dependent in 12s where I might take the shot if I have an open spot, but wouldn't necessarily bend over backwards to scoop him.

Trade

2:43

What pitchers would you trade Carrol or Judge straight up for in a 12-team redradt?

Paul Sporer

2:45

I mean Judge should cost pretty much any top flight SP still. I'd try to get a discount, but I'd pay full market price if the discount just wasn't there. On Carroll, I don't hate buying low but w/the shoulder issue & resulting power outage, I'd want a discount

The Bee Guy

2:45

I sure was the best reliever that the Dbacks have rolled out all year at yesterday's game. Sounds like they may have to now condemn Chase Field for infestation.

Paul Sporer

2:46

LOLOL if the Oakland Coliseum can avoid condemnation w/all its issues, this is child's play for Chase

18thstjoe

2:49

is it over 100 degrees in Austin yet?

Paul Sporer

2:49

Not yetttt. Staying pretty manageable so far still. Peaking around mid-80s and still dropping into the 60s/50s over night. But soon it'll be an endless string of 100+ days

Spaceman

2:49

Paulie, a big thank you for the chats, Starting Pitcher Charts, The Sleeper...Bust, and all the work you do for us. Love your passion for our sickness! BTW, please explain "W OBA RK" column on your Starting P Charts.

Paul Sporer

2:51

Thank you so much for the kind words!! wOBA is weighted On Base Average -- a better, more detailed way to credit player's actions as they relate to their impact instead of just saying a single is the same as a HR like OBP (on base percentage) does. For more: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/woba/

So in the SP chart, the rank is where the pitcher's opponent ranks in wOBA v. his handedness for the season. In a couple weeks, I will have 2 ranks on the page: their full season rank and the last 30 days. There's no need to separate season and L30 just yet, though

Frat Damon

2:51

MATT. DAMON. BRO.

Paul Sporer

2:51

HELL. YES. DUDE.

Erik

2:52

Are there morals in fantasy baseball? Someone in my league offered Trout and d'Arnaud for Salvador Perez. Person receiving Trout thinks he'll only be out a week while reports suggest otherwise. Vote to veto the trade or let the trade happen?

Paul Sporer

2:53

As long as they are aware that he's hurt, they can make their assessments on how long. Now, I'm not sure how they get to a week w/a torn meniscus, but that's a bit on them. I understand the inclination to protect someone from getting hosed, but we can only go so far with it. That the manager in question knows Trout is hurt is enough for me to let ppl manage how they want even if I don't agree w/it

Guest

2:53

Greene has not actually been giving up that many homers this year I think we need to move away from that narrative.

Paul Sporer

2:55

He needs WAY more than 35 IP of a 5% HR/FB to shift that narrative. Even w/the 0.52 HR9 so far this yr, he has a career 1.5 HR9 mark. He is also a heavy FB guy playing in one of the best HR parks in the league, HRs are an ever-present threat

Mitch

2:55

Are you sold on Lodolo and Detmers after the 1st month? What is their ceiling on your rankings?

Paul Sporer

2:58

Looove Detmers. More of a like with Lodolo bc like Greene, his 24 IP of 5% HR/FB and 0.38 HR9 do not quell the severe HR concerns we have with him. That said, I'm still starting Lodolo consistently in all formats. There isn't necessarily a ceiling on either's rank if they continue to pitch well. I feel like Detmers's upper range is probably a little higher bc of the aforementioned HR issue and dangerous park for Lodeezy, buuttt neither leave the lineup all that often for me. Even w/the tough 2-step that includes BAL this wknd, I was still in on Lodolo

Mike

2:58

Who wins this deal in a deep h2h dynasty league. Ben Brown and Royber Salinas for Brandon Pfaadt?

Paul Sporer

3:00

I don't think it's about "winning" deals. You gotta give to get unless you're just in a league of less savvy managers that you're just ripping off, but I don't really find that fun. So I don't like the win/loss framing. There can and often is distinctive winners and losers of trades after all the dust settles, but at the time of trade, both teams should be intrigued by what they got and have a little pain related to what they gave. This trade passes that test IMO as you can make the case for both sides pretty easily

Mik

3:00

Sell on Buxton before your opponent finds out he may have just hurt himself running....

Paul Sporer

3:01

Don't be scummy. That kinda stuff works once and then you're the guy no one wants to trade with bc you're trying to get over on your opponents. Obviously you want to win and to do the best for your team, but if the only way to do that is by ripping ppl off then you're an undesirable league mate

Sacramento A’s Fan

3:01

Is Mitch Keller droppable in a 10-team mixed league?

Paul Sporer

3:05

Yeah, I can get behind that. Standard recommendation I'd definitely put him on the watchlist after the cut bc I'd gladly pick him back up if he finds a groove, but there's too much talent circulating around 10 teamer waiver wires to keep running him IMO

Aaron Nola Fanboy

3:05

Hi Paul! In my 10 team dynasty league, I was offered Willy Adames for Michael Busch (before the 2 homer game from Willy). Any thoughts on Busch for the future, and if it would be worth it to move him for Adames?

Paul Sporer

3:08

Long-time Michael Busch fan who was glad to see him get the opportunity in Chicago. He's been great, but I really like this deal. It's not an egregious sell high or anything bc there's a world where Busch is a consistent 30 HR type guy for the next 2-3 yrs, but I'll take the near-30 HR SS in exchange!

Boris

3:08

Jo Adell! Sell now, or hold and pray in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer

3:09

I doubt you're really gonna net much on a sell, so ride it and hope he's at the beginning of the breakthrough we've been waiting on for some time!

seth

3:09

for next week, which 2 of these three are you starting: Gil (vHou, @TB), Abbott @SF, KCrawford @ATL. could also throw JHoffman in instead (S+H league)

Paul Sporer

3:15

Oooh that is tough. I'll lock in Gil w/2-step even though it's not easy. I'm really torn on Abbott v. Kutter. Kutter is the better pitcher but the matchup difference might fully bridge the gap between 'em. Part of me wonders if this is a good bench spot w/Kutter and hope to miss some of his due regression. He's pitching well and earning plenty of his success, but obviously the 0 HRs allowed won't last and the 82% LOB rate is due some regression, too. I have a hard time benching guys who are cooking, especially when I saw them as potential breakouts this year, too. That's probably a form of confirmation bias, though, so I have to be careful. Damn, I'm really agonizing on this one. Push come to shove, I'm taking the talent and going Gil/Kutter

sad league member

3:15

Recently a veteran, and somewhat "used car salesman-like" member in my dynasty league picked up Loperfield off the ww (2 weeks ago). To many of our horrors, on Monday he traded him to an expansion/brand new member of our league for Cole Ragans. We don't believe in vetos, but this one is a potential game changer and very concerning. Talk me off the cliff Mr. Sporer! Is there any scenario that this is a decent trade?

Paul Sporer

3:20

Mannn, I'm pretty stridently anti-veto, but this one requires some digging. First things first, I'd just ask the manager who got Loperfido what their thinking was in the deal. Bc truthfully, you can't even really make a devil's advocate case for this one even if you're a huge Loperfido fan. There is a world where he's a solid fantasy bat, hitting .270 with pop & speed, but that almost doesn't matter because the simple fact is that you can get SO much more than just Loperfido for Ragans.

Take the temperature of that manager and see what's what. If it's straight collusion, ya gotta boot the both of 'em. If it's just someone getting taken advantage, you probably have to let it ride and then consider not inviting the ripoff artist back next yr. Again, we all want to win, that's the point of playing, but if I don't think taking advantage of worse players makes you a savvy or good fantasy player so I have no desire to play w/those types. Don't be too hasty, but try to get more info about this abomination

Ippei You Back

3:21

Someone dropped Detmers in a 12 team cats. Do i cut my 6th OF Chourio/Nimmo/Varsho for him?

Paul Sporer

3:23

Presumably start 3 OF league? I'd go for Detmers and between those 3, it's probably Nimmo. Not that he's been bad, but I like the upside of Chourio & Varsho more!

David

3:23

If the lopsided trade is the case of a bad fantasy player being taken advantage of, that owner is the one that needs to go, not the guy who needs to go, not the one who "took advantage." I want guys in the league who are trying to win, not inadequate owners.

Paul Sporer

3:27

I'm not averse to removing the worse manager, too, but I don't wanna play with people who are actively just trying to rip people off to win. There's no skill in that. Your point is well taken, though, would rather just merk both. Now I understand it's not easy to just smoke 2 managers and find replacements. So that doesn't have to be the go-to, but maybe talk to the ripoff artist and be like hey I understand this is competition and we're all trying to win, but this is inherently bad for the league and kinda sucks,

And before someone tries to say MLB doesn't do this if the Rockies get ripped off by LAD or TB or something, I know... but our dumbass fantasy leagues aren't MLB. Even acknowledging that the Rockies are a terrible FO, the gap between them and the Dodgers FO isn't anywhere near as large as a shark fantasy player and someone who has little idea what they're doing. Yes, even in the Rockies case.

Micah

3:28

QS League: Would you take Houck or Crochet ROS?

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