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Paul Sporer

3:28

Houck for sure... and that's not just bc of Crochet's recent bumps. Would've preferred Houck even when Crochet was cookin

Jasper

3:28

Hey Paul! What's the best way to interpret expected stats? I.e., my guy Lawrence Butler has a .289 wOBA / .389 xwOBA! Is he gonna breakout, or is there just something broken with his approach?

Paul Sporer

3:32

I personally don't get too hung up on x-Stats, buuuuttt I care about the components that go into them so in the case of Butler, his xwOBA is basically just a shortcut of saying he has a great BB% and low BABIP that should regress bc he's smoking the ball (12% Barrel, 55% Hard-Hit). Rostering him in deeper leagues, but more of a watchlist type in 12s and shallower... maybe I'll try to jump on at the first sign that he's getting hot, perhaps in a week with a ton of righties since he appears to be in a straight platoon. They have 2 lefties in 3 gms this weekend but then just 1 in a 7 gms next week so maybe we scoop this weekend and see if the hits start falling?

Izzy

3:32

Why do so many people view Seager's 2023 as his baseline? Last year was Seager's best year year. He's been injured and has had a bunch of good, but not great years.

Paul Sporer

3:40

Not sure I've seen much of his 2023 being considered the baseline, but also don't really agree on the good/great year thing. A super weird .242 BABIP kept him from a great 2022 when he stayed healthy for the first time in a while and popped 33 HRs but hit just .245 in 151 gms. Before that, he had a 147 wRC+ in 2020-21 which is undeniably great. The injuries bit in '21, limiting him to just 95 gms but he was great on a rate basis. He opened with a 135 wRC+ in his first 1413 PA which is a top 20 mark in that time -- 17th to be exact (min. 1400 PA). That's pretty great.

If anything, I'd say 2018-19's run of 111 wRC+ in 656 PA (just 26 gms in '18) are the anomaly. Health is the undeniable negative mark on his ledger, but he does have a lot of great years - if incomplete - that rightfully has many thinking the 2023 isn't necessarily a one-off spike, at least not in terms of the per PA production. The health may well be... hell, he's already been hurt this year and might still have some effects of it.

3:43

I don't mind taking a guy who's been 12th in wRC+ over his career (min. 4000 PA) with a 2nd-3rd round pick. His ADP only moved up 16 spots off his 2023 mark. I don't think 2023 is the baseline expectation for Seager, but another high end season is on the table if he can play 500+ PA again. That last part is always in doubt, the talent is not.

Bosoxual

3:43

Is pivetta going to be for real when he comes back? He was cooking at the start and 2H last year

Paul Sporer

3:48

That's always hard to say because we don't know what sort of residual effects the injury might have. And we don't know that even if he does struggle that the injury is even to blame. That said, he's lining up for at ATL upon his return so let's sit that one out regardless. But at this point, Pivetta is a start v. all but the best of the best right now. A Super Team Streamer (STS) if you will. ATL, LAD, BAL, HOU, trips to NYY/CIN/COL (and maybe not even COL, tbh), would be the sit considerations for an STS. I might even take some shots at home with particular STSs.... but Pivetta in Atlanta fresh off the IL is an easy sit

Elvis the Pelvis

3:48

Paul, I've done my chores and run my errands, even written some poetry, but you're still here! Thanks!

Paul Sporer

3:48

I am, butttt we're going to go ahead and cap it here!

quadrangular

3:49

At what point do we discuss Josh Naylor's gradual transformation into Vlad Senior (AKA the good Vlad)? Dude looks really good, I admit I didn't see this power coming

Paul Sporer

3:50

I'm super in on Naylor as a superstar. Health is the biggest hurdle, but the fantasy superstar skills are there, especially if he's allowed to keep running and can churn out 12-15 SBs across 500+ PA.

3:52

Y'all really killed it with the queue, thanks so much! I will have my boxscore morning show both tomorrow and Friday on Twitch -- https://twitch.tv/sporer -- starting at 8 AM CT tomorrow and then around 10:30 AM CT (I say around bc it's after the podcast which doesn't have a set end time) on Friday. You can definitely come ask your fantasy questions there. We just hang out and check the last night's boxscores while tangenting on all sorts of great baseball and sometimes non-baseball-related topics! So come on by if you're free. Thanks so much for coming out. New SP ranking coming soon!

Biscuit

3:52

Is there such a thing as too much buying low?

Paul Sporer

3:52

Yes, because they might not all rebound

3:53

Maybe just a couple cases you really believe in, don't invest on the concept

OK, bye for real now!

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