PHR Chat With Gavin Lee: 07/20/17
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Gavin Lee
5:06
Hey folks. Welcome to another chat.
In the thick of the summer doldrums now.
5:07
What is everyone doing to curb the sports itch? Baseball?
Patrick
5:10
Hey Gavin! Do you think the caps will still be a playoff contender this year ?
Gavin Lee
5:11
Hey Patrick!
They'll definitely be a playoff contender.
They still have an excellent forward group, and a solid top four on defense.
They're not as deep as last year obviously, but anyone who can send out Backstrom and Kuznetsov as their top two will be just fine.
Russ99
5:12
Any leads on when Draisaitl gets signed? Are we looking at long term still or a bridge deal?
Gavin Lee
5:12
I'd be very surprised if it's anything but a long-term deal, but Edmonton doesn't have to rush it.
5:13
Draisaitl wasn't arbitration eligible, so they can work out a perfect deal over the summer with him.
There hasn't been any indication that he wouldn't want to sign long-term.
Chase
5:13
Any rumblings on Vanek, Jagr and Franson? Could the Ducks be in on any of them? Thanks!
Gavin Lee
5:14
I've said for a couple of weeks that Vanek feels like an interesting fit for the Ducks, and I'm not sure why all three are still available at this point.
Sure, teams want to make sure they get their RFAs dealt with first but all three have value.
5:15
Franson is one of the most divisive players in the league, as some who have to watch him every night think he can't play a lick of defense, while others who point to analytics and point totals like him a lot more.
I'm not sure he's a good fit for Anaheim though.
Robert
5:15
I think a lot of the veteran guys are still floating around because teams don't want to pay them much, would rather bring them in on try outs or less than $2mil/1yr deals.
Gavin Lee
5:16
Sure, and maybe the vets are waiting for someone to be desperate enough.
But Vanek took a $2.6MM deal on July 1st last year
5:17
It's surprising that he wouldn't get and take a short term deal again this time around.
Chase
5:17
I just can't imagine Franson's best offer is a PTO from Chicago. He's better than a number of 3rd pairing d men and even some 2nd pairing guys around the league. This offseason has been one of the strangest of recent memory
Gavin Lee
5:17
There are a lot of people who think that, and then a lot of Buffalo fans who would argue with the assertion that he's even a defenseman at all.
For what it's worth I think he'll be a nice value add for someone.
Ian
5:18
Assuming a surprising agreement isn't reached, what would you guess Spooner makes in arbitration?
Gavin Lee
5:19
It can't be much more than $2.5-3MM. If you look at what Pageau got from Ottawa, and what an older and more productive player in Tatar is asking for Spooner can't ask for all that much.
Suspicious
5:20
How much weight do you put into possession stats? I mean, they are pretty dependent on who is on the ice with you as well as who is on the ice against you. If a coach only plays someone in a favorable matchup, then their analytics should always be falsely high, right?
Chase
5:20
Franson was a -5 on a terrible Buffalo team, which Kassian was a -17 and Kulikov was a -26. I know +/- isn't everything, but you'd think Buffalo would be a little more appreciative of what he did for them
Gavin Lee
5:20
So these go together.
5:22
If possession stats (corsi, fenwick, etc) are too influenced by teammates, then +/- is complete rubbish. It's entirely dependent on what the other players on the ice do.

Now, I don't like to say that about anything because stats don't come with an agenda, people do. Corsi and +/- both tell you things, but the former correlates much more with success.
5:23
That's the thing about analytics. No, just because Los Angeles has good corsi doesn't mean they'll win every game. That's not what corsi claims. What analytics do say, is that there are ways to..err, analyze...players that are better predictors of success than the old statistics.
5:24
If you take all the successful teams over the history of hockey, there is a strong correlation with positive corsi ratings.
But to say that good corsi=good player is also disingenuous.
5:25
Anyway, it's a much bigger topic really but to answer the first part, I do put some weight in possession numbers. They're not my final analysis of a player.
Suspicious
5:25
Thanks Gavin. Great answer. I guess I should view it more as an upgrade over +/- which it totally is. Better predictor but still not perfect.
Gavin Lee
5:25
Great way to look at it.
Robert
5:26
Maybe a tough reality for a guy like Vanek to sign with a team and then if they struggle is a prime candidate at the deadline for depth scoring. Moving that much has to be tough.
Gavin Lee
5:27
I'm glad you brought that up Robert. It's something I've struggled with for a long time in kind of quantifying when looking at contracts. These are humans, and there's only so much movement and mercenary work they can do (even if your name is Jaromir).
Vanek may have hated that he was a deadline candidate last year, and could be waiting to see if a guaranteed contender (if there is such a thing) comes knocking instead.
Ducks fan
5:28
I love Vatanen, but not at his salary. With an aging Perry eating up a large chunk of salary, why hasn't vatanen been moved to get a controllable, cheap left handed shooting forward?
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