JotCast | RosterResource Chat

RosterResource Chat - 12/4/25

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Jason Martinez

2:03

Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! Jon and I will be in Orlando next week for Winter Meetings. As a reminder, last year's meetings started with the Juan Soto signing, followed by a couple of slow days, and then ended with the Garrett Crochet trade. Expecting another fun week.

Here we go ...

Matt

2:03

If the Angels & Rendon end up deferring some 2026 money to future years, does that reduce the Angels 2026 luxury tax hit or does it remain the same?

Jon Becker

2:04

It would reduce it since the present value of the $38 million he's due this next year would be lower, but unless it's a really extreme deferral schedule, it's not going to lower the tax hit very much. Where it would be more meaningful is lowering the team's real cash flow for 2026 by quite a bit, which could create quite a bit of room.

Ethan

2:05

What’s a fair package for Pablo Lopez if the Mets were to trade for him?

Jason Martinez

2:08

Starting pitching is valuable so it won't be cheap. Mets farm system is stacked, though, so they can afford it. For two seasons of Lopez, I'll say either Sproat or Tong, either Jacob Reimer, Jett Williams or AJ Ewing, and maybe a 3rd prospect with high upside but far from the big leagues.

Mikey Z

2:08

Berrios getting traded now or are the Blue Jays going to follow the Dodgers strategy of stocking up on as much pitching as possible and hoping all their best arms are available in September and October?

Jon Becker

2:10

The Jays would get so little back for Berríos — and they'd have to pay a big chunk of the remaining three years and $66 million anyway — that I don't see a great baseball or even economic reason for trading him, at least right now. If there's a desperate team later in the offseason or after injuries in Spring Training I'm sure the Blue Jays will bring Berríos up, but they'd also want to make sure their own six starters make it through healthy.

Shane

2:10

Who should the Nationals be targeting on the open market?

Jason Martinez

2:13

Doesn't seem like there's any sense of urgency from the Nats, but I would've thought that it's time for their "Jayson Werth signing" that signals that the rebuild is over. When they signed Werth, they had been really bad for 5+ seasons in a row (1st 5 seasons since move to DC). The current team has been really bad for 6 seasons now and we're hearing more about Gore and Abrams being trade candidates rather than the Nats making a splash in free agency.

With that said, I think starting pitching is where they'd need to start. They don't really have much help on the way in 2026 and the current group isn't good enough to compete for a playoff spot. Would be easier to add a 1B who can make an impact without spending big $. It's way more expensive to add a SP. And they probably need 2 starters, even if Gore stays. Not too hopeful on this team but would love to be surprised.

Joey B.

2:15

A's seem like they have one big free agent move they could make this offseason similar to signing Severino last year. What's it gonna be?

Jon Becker

2:17

The problem with the A's is that the obvious need is pitching, but after so many pitchers badmouthed the mound in Sacramento and last year's big signing, Luis Severino, has said how uncomfortable he feels with prep at minor league facilities, I don't know to what extent they can simply go above-market to make a deal with, say, Lucas Giolito. That said, there are always a lot of starters available and I'd think they can nab someone to eat innings, but I'd guess someone lower-upside like Zack Littell or Aaron Civale.

wheelhouse

2:18

yanks clearly need another starter, right? middling rotation right now won’t get it done

Jason Martinez

2:21

As things stand, they're probably fine without Rodon for a month and Cole for two months. Yarbrough is good enough to give them 5-6 good starts and even someone like Allan Winans can be a decent fill-in. He dominated in AAA last season.

But the reality is that "as things stand" now will be different from end of spring training and World Series contenders aren't worried about roster construction "once everyone is healthy". Because it's rare that everyone is healthy and Will Warren and Cam Schlittler have MiLB options if there is a crowded rotation by mid-season. Good problem to have.

So, yes, I think another mid-rotation starter ($10MM/year) is likely. But they're focused on October and having Cole-Rodon-Fried healthy is the goal.

drplantwrench

2:22

what do the angels need more desperately? a 3B or a CF?

Jon Becker

2:24

I think they pretty desperately need both, but if they had to bring in just one (not necessarily true, though, of course), I think 3B. Denzer Guzman was awful in his first taste of the majors, whereas in CF they could plausibly just let Teodosio, who's an excellent fielder, be a stopgap until they bring Nelson Rada up.

Devin W.

2:24

How soon will Joe Mack be the starting catcher in Miami?

Jason Martinez

2:28

I really want to pencil him into the Opening Day lineup. He's on the 40-man. Sounds like he's a terrific defender. Left-handed hitter with some power. HOWEVER, I can see the Marlins holding him back at least long enough to get that extra season of club control and I'll guess they hold out until early May.

He can still get the full season of service time if he's Top 2 in ROY voting but he's probably at a disadvantage because he won't get as many at-bats as a catcher and being a MLB catcher is also very difficult. So the Marlins might take that into account when making that decision.

Chris

2:29

For a while the Yanks were criticized for being too RH hitter heavy for their ballpark, now theyve swung back where a lot of their lefties (and Jasson) cant really hit LH pitchers well. Have they boxed themselves in to platoons all over?

Jon Becker

2:32

I don't really view platoons as something that a team boxes itself into, it's just a strategy brought on by personnel that can often work really well. I think the bigger issue (for right now, very early in the offseason!) beyond that the platoons will have to happen is that they don't really have good righty platoon options, especially while Caballero is covering for Volpe as the starting shortstop. Their projected lineups based on opposing handedness are here, and you'll notice that right now we have Grisham and Dominguez both as full timers, and the Yankees probably don't want that for at least one of them, if not both. Amed Rosario was great for them at the plate but is rough defensively and can barely fake it in the outfield, so I could see them looking into more OF-specific guys like Refsnyder, Lane Thomas, or Tommy Pham.

Chadwick

2:32

Am I crazy to think the Rockies should trade Dollander this offseason? The new leadership should have zero faith he'll be developed correctly with the existing player development system, and he still has value now.

Jason Martinez

2:35

My initial thought is that the Rockies can't afford to trade away 6 years of a potential frontline SP. But I also think DePodesta is in a position where he can make some crazy out-of-the-box decisions based on the information gathering he's done since being hired. If he's concluded that they have to target a certain type of pitcher and Dollander really isn't that type, I think they'd at least try to move him. But price would be high and his value might not be very high based on his 2025 season went.

Bubba

2:35

Even with seemingly massive funds, payroll can't be unlimited. What do you think the Mets do with Diaz, Alonso, huge holes in the OF, and getting a front of the rotation pitcher?

Jon Becker

2:38

You're right that payroll can't be unlimited but they also have $60 million left to spend before hitting this year's end-of-year payroll, so they could plausibly get most or all of that done while under last year's payroll, especially if some of those boxes are checked via trade. My guess is they'd be happy to have Díaz and Alonso back but evidently aren't willing to pay near sticker price (or else they'd be signed by now!), and they could be more on the trade market for top-line SP just because there are quite a few of them out there who have a non-zero chance of being moved.

tooooooo

2:38

we are creeping up on Murakami's deadline - has there been any smoke lately?

Jason Martinez

2:41

Not really any good rumors. Just speculation. Will be interesting to know how much he cares about playing 3B (at least for a few seasons) vs 1B/DH because the teams that will probably just pencil him into 3B aren't very good right now. Angels, Pirates, Rockies seem like good fits if he wants to play 3B. Not so much for a contender, who would more likely want him to play 1B/DH.

Hundreds, possibly thousands

2:42

What do you think the Cards are asking for Arenado, and will anybody bite?

Jon Becker

2:43

Hard to see it being anything more than salary relief. Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if the Cardinals would almost rather have a PTBNL if the acquiring team will pay more of his salary. This is mostly about getting Arenado a (final?) chance to win in the playoffs and open up playing time for Saggese/Wetherholt.

mike

2:44

Do we think Buxton is dealt? If they deal him, they just have to deal Jeffers, Lopez, Ryan, right?

Jason Martinez

2:48

I'll say probably not. The price will be (and should be) ridiculously high considering how good he was in 2025 and how team-friendly the contract is for the next 3 seasons. Even if they expect to go backwards for one more season, they'd have their homegrown superstar on a competitive roster for 2027 and 2028 with a lot of young talent and (hopefully) a higher payroll that allows them to add some impact players. Seems like Buxton would be fine with that. Would be very cool if he spent his entire career there and played on at least a few more playoff-contending teams.

If they do trade him, there are really only a few teams that have the farm systems to acquire him. Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox all come to mind. But it will be costly. I'd guess 3 top-50 prospects and more.

robertobeers

2:49

From your 3rd party perspectives, what would a realistic salary cap look like? Not from the owners or the players perspective but from your evaluation of where it should be

Jon Becker

2:53

I'm pretty anti-cap mostly because I think it just gives an illusion of fairness when there are a million other things that team have been and would continue to be better or worse than other teams at, and I don't love essentially taking choices away from players based on who has money left to spend before a league-mandated cap and who doesn't. BUT, if we're saying there has to be one, I could be convinced of something like a $120 million floor and $300 million cap, using luxury tax calculations, and both would go up, I don't know, $3-5M a year? But most owners wouldn't want a floor or cap that high, or such a wide spread between the two, whatsoever.

Dodgers Blue

2:54

The Angels have to add another starter or two, right? Does someone like Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt or Merrill Kelly fit into their budget and make reasonable expectations for potential signings?

Jason Martinez

2:57

Not sure how much Arte is willing to spend but Minasian/Suzuki are only signed thru 2026 so I know they're hoping to go all in. The easiest way to raise their floor is by adding another starting pitcher so they have a solid 1-2-3 punch. Kikuchi-Giolito/Kelly/Bassitt-Soriano is fine. As of now, they have 3 huge question marks in their rotation. Detmers back to the rotation after ending the season on the IL with an elbow injury is a risk. Grayson's injury history and Manoah's inability to bounce right back after TJ are concerning. They should probably add 2 of those aforementioned guys.

Dodgers Blue

2:57

Name your Top 3 SLEEPER team signings for Bo Bichette.

Jon Becker

3:00

As far as I've seen I don't think any of these teams have been connected in any meaningful way (no particular order):

Tigers (could start out at short and then slide over to third when McGonigle is up, or second in 2027 if Torres reaches FA)

Angels (as established, they do need a 3B and might be opening up some money by deferring Rendon's deal)

Braves (this would be extremely against type for them and would almost certainly require their largest contract ever, but he'd make that lineup truly formidable top to bottom)

Also, as a bonus, this has a zero percent chance of happening but wouldn't it be fun to see him in Colorado, playing for his dad's old team? He might mash 80 doubles a year playing at Coors, too.

3:01

Wondering if maybe you could be light on Carter Jensen's playing time. I feel like given his usage/performance last year, he might DH any day he isn't relieving Salvy. Thoughts on this?

Jason Martinez

3:06

I have him in the 350-400 PA range, which is a lot for a backup catcher. Even Drake Baldwin had around 450 last season. I have him at 570 this season after his breakout rookie season.

In the case of the Royals, I think there's a path for Jensen to get 500+ PA. India or Massey could struggle at the plate. If both are hitting, one would likely have to DH. They could also add another bat who gets at-bats at DH.

Dodgers Blue

3:06

With Austin Riley coming off injury - and Ozzie Albie's history of injury every other year it seems, do you feel the Braves are poised to add a true short stop to move Dubon back into a super flex position - or, at least add another well-rounded bench guy to help plug in all over the infield?

Jon Becker

3:08

I think they'll look to upgrade on Dubón for sure, and Kim seems like the likeliest option as long as he's out there on the market. If they don't upgrade on Dubón I wouldn't really expect them to add another bench guy, they've got a lot of coverage with Wisely/Bruján/White all having good versatility, plus Nacho Alvarez, who could start in the minors to keep him playing regularly but had a very good (small sample!) AFL showing.

Fernando Tatis-Buck Jr.

3:08

Does a Tong, Jett, Peterson (1y rental), Morabito, Mauricio package get me to queens?

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