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Sunday Chat - Week 1
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AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:46
Hello everyone, welcome to our Week 1 chat
11:47
This is our first effort at this, and I am sure we will all learn some things together. Just know that for now, if you ask a question and it doesn't appear right away, that it is in moderation for me to review
Derek
11:47
good morming!
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:47
good morning Derek
Ander
11:48
Why the line on Vikings dropping
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:48
It looks like DE/OLB Marcus Davenport was ruled out and inactive, which is the biggest piece of player news that could impact
11:49
that has caused a downward shift of about 2% in win odds. So late updaters may see Minnesota drop a bit in the pick rankings, though their EV is still neutral and the thesis is similar. (save future value)
Derek
11:49
Quick question,  just noticed that Washington jumped up and is now one of my suggested picks, replacing Seattle in one. Did the lines move a bit?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:50
it could be other impacts, and also that we have had teams grading out similarly at the top this week, so small changes can move one team just in front. I don't see a big downward move with Seattle
Josh
11:51
Happy Week 1 Everybody!
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:51
We certainly hope so, Josh. Let's check in at 7 pm and see how we feel.
Nick
11:53
The Falcons EV this week is 1.15. Why aren’t they #1 survivor pick?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:53
This is really good question. Our models are really high on Atlanta. While we trust our models directionally, we didn't want to have a team that was favored by only 3.5 showing up as our top pick (which it would if we did nothing). So we do have some manual control to de-emphasize certain teams. 

Atlanta makes more sense as a portfolio addition, and not the main meal. We saw this issue a few years ago, when our models were extremely high on the Jags in Urban Meyer's first game.
Evan
11:54
Hey guys, excited for the new season! Why so many changes to the picks pre-game??? I've been refreshing my page every 20 minutes or so and get new pick suggestions each time! My head is spinning lol. Currently at ATLx2, SEAx2, BALx1   -    Been a combo of SEA, MIN, ATL, WAS  & BAL
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:54
I think this is a function of about 7 options being close to each other (pick grades between 100 and 95 in a lot of pools) so that subtle line changes or popularity changes can move a team slightly, but around another.
11:56
and to build on this point, the only clearly non-strategic pick are things like KC/PHI (high future value, not their best odds for year). But the other options present either future value savings, high EV, or some combination.
JT
11:56
Hey Jason,
Is the chat replacing the Sunday videos?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:56
for now, yes. The turnaround time and shelf life of a video is pretty short if we put it up on Sunday, and this is more reactive. But we are still experimenting and making decisions.
Chad
11:58
Should the emphasis be a little more on Washington, Minnesota, and Atlanta as this is potentially the best week for all of them as opposed to Baltimore, Seattle and Jacksonville?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:58
if your only focus is future value, yes. But EV matters too. Washington, for example, is a negative EV pick (well below 1.00) because of high popularity.

You save teams like Baltimore not just to do it, but to use them in weeks where they have a really good EV because they are a big favorite and the public is concentrated on some other riskier picks (i.e., a week like this).
Pete
11:59
Happy Week 1!   Had a quick question - I'm in a couple of very large pools (more than 10K entries).  Will this affect the config in PG?  I think 10K is the max #of entries you can set for each pool so I left them at that limit.   Thanks in advance & love the data analysis your team provides!!
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:59
Yes, I'm also in some pools with over 10,000. It shouldn't impact the recommendations at really large sizes. Those pools are almost certainly heading for pot splits and lots of entries getting to end, so the advice on heavy emphasis on future value is still the same whether we thought you had 10k or 50k.
12:00
I would just accurately report the pool size once it gets below 10k. The size matters in decisions not only at outset but as year goes on.
Orr4ever
12:00
Hi Jason,
What do you recommend for my pool which locks before the first game of the week (Thursday KC-Det) for pick strategy? Recommended picks have changed quite a bit for my seven picks since then (1655 entry pool). Thanks!
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:00
You just work with the best info you have at the time. The good news is that everyone in the pool should be in the same boat.
Ryan
12:02
Hi Jason,

Excited for another year of NFL survivor! I have a question about multi-pick pools. I have one pool where we pick 2 teams in weeks 3, 5, and 6 only (kinda random). When I set up the pool and tell PG that multi-picks start in week 3, it tells me "you might run out of teams are you sure thats correct"? It seems to think multi-pick may be "always on" once it starts.

What's the best way to handle this in pool setup, just keep it as starting week 3? Or say it starts week 16 so that it knows there are only 3 multi-pick weeks? FWIW you can also buy back twice until week 6.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:02
Yes, good question, I play in a similar one that starts in Week 2 and requires 2 in every even numbered week. Yes, tell it that it is correct.

You need to have the accurate first week of multi-picks because that is when we start asking you and providing multiple picks if you need them.
12:04
We don't currently account for which weeks you have, so in your case, you might need to glance at the specific weeks in our season planner, see which ones have multi-picks and which teams are most valuable for those 3 weeks, and then if you see those teams come up in a recommendation, switch it to a similarly graded team to save them for your specific pool.
12:05
and by that, I mean situations where you have one early multi-pick week, then a later one, for example, as opposed to consistent multi-pick weeks once they start
JJ
12:06
Hi my top two picks are Seattle & Baltimore, third is Wash. Does it make sense to go Baltimore & Washington, saving Seattle in case I need to buy back in the afternoon (if first teams lose)? And I'm surprised Baltimore so high - was hoping to use later. Cheers
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:06
See part of my response above to Chad at 11:58 regarding the case for Baltimore.

Are you sure that when you buy back, you make another pick this week? That doesn't seem typical. Usually you just come back the next week.
12:07
Here is that Baltimore answer, for those coming in now:

You save teams like Baltimore not just to do it, but to use them in weeks where they have a really good EV because they are a big favorite and the public is concentrated on some other riskier picks (i.e., a week like this).
Chad
12:08
Denver was showing up at times in my portfolio.  Is the consensus on Denver overall to stay away?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:08
Denver is a riskier play at the odds (I think the line has moved down to a FG) so they only make sense in some really large pools and large portfolios as an alternative type pick.
JJ
12:09
Yes we can buy back in immediately, as long as game hasn't started. Thx
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:09
hmm, interesting, and you have to do that? as opposed to buying back in for Week 2?
JJ
12:10
The scenario would be if I lose both early games, I'd want one entry through at least if possible, so why I'm thinking of saving Seattle
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:10
okay, my question is if you have to re-buy and specifically pick a Week 1 team, that is the only option, you can't re-buy in at Week 2.
12:12
if the only way to re-buy is in the same week, then yes, it makes strategic sense to pick early games and have the option for later. If you don't have to do that, though, and can re-buy for Week 2, it seems to me you are just adding more risk.
Ander
12:13
I have 11 entries is better to spread it around with 4 teams or 7 teams
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