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Sunday Chat - Week 1
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AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:13
Typically, it's better to not spread it so thin across 7 teams. You just make it more likely that you mirror the public and get eliminated at same rate. Also, it's better to have some outcomes to root against, if you take all 7 top options, you basically have no outcomes that strongly benefit you.
mrathburn
12:14
i got burned last year going 5 teams in week 1. going 3 this year.
if you take 7 different teams, you can figure 3 will lose and you are screwed.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:16
obviously the more entries that you have overall, the more teams you might want to add as a small percentage of that. But there's a limit of how many picks make sense to optimize for the week.

Like if I was taking a contrarian stand against one particularly popular team, I might be more willing to diversify which chances I was taking against them to make sure I got through with some in case of a wipeout.
12:17
by the way, thanks for all the questions, I see your follow-up thank you's but haven't added them to chat since I sometimes see them after I've answered another Q, and it might not make sense for them to appear in the chat order where it would fall.
PapaJaps
12:19
is the site going to change recommendations being that Andrews is out
Baltimore still second ranked pick
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:19
So far, the market hasn't reacted strongly, and it's had over 12 hours to do so. I think that's partially because Baltimore has a pretty good second tight end in Isaiah Likely, and has more WR depth than last year.

Our models are already lower on Baltimore than the market odds, so if they are being recommended, it's because other factors favor it, even if we are a slight lean to Houston against the spread based on our models.
Josh
12:22
Hey Jason. Is the future value of Minny enough to make them a heavy play in my 6 entry survivor pool? Ive seen the line move fairly significantly and it's giving me pause. Currently have them for 3 entries.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:22
I guess it depends on the size of the pool. I do think the win odds drop should shift them some downward, but not sure what your particular pool is showing for pick rankings (check those for that pool and see who we have graded similarly to Minnesota, you could always switch to one of those if you think Minnesota is not what you want.)
mrathburn
12:22
im going sea x 2, wash x 1, atl x2
cleveland is pick now wow
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:23
if you are getting Cleveland as a pick rec in survivor that doesn't seem right. They are still an underdog with win odds around 50% and also have some future value.
funkstatic
12:23
Why do the recommendations fluctuate so much on game day an hour before kickoff?
I've got 6 entries in one pool that have shifted 3 times in the last 2 hours
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:25
Two things: one is line moves right around the time of active roster designations, which is 90 minutes before kickoff. So any injury news becomes confirmed at that point for early games.

Also, this week, there are several teams graded similarly, so small changes can switch things.
mrathburn
12:25
i meant the line moved to pick in cle/cin. no way id touch either team in survivor
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:25
ah yes, it's probably because we took Cleveland as a Staff Pick and also listed it as one of our Upset Plays this week :) I am sure that's what the market is reacting to.
Brandon
12:26
So is Baltimore the team to pick in pools with only around 50 entries? I'm able to see who everyone has picked in both pools and Baltimore is the most picked team. Does it make sense to pivot to Seattle in pools that small?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:26
this is a case where you can use the EV calculator to run the actual pick rates and see how that changes EV.
Chad
12:27
Any value in picking either Bears or Packers?  It is basically a pick and if you have a strong lean towards one of the teams, could that give you a leg up on the competition later in the season having used a sub par team already?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:27
In survivor, sub 60% is getting too risky.
Amit
12:27
AZ is going to be multi touchdown underdogs all year, they should be this week.  Even in multi entry, i would be atleast 75% Washington.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:28
Lots of people feel this way, which is why they are rising in popularity, and thus lowering their EV
12:29
crazy stuff happens in Week 1. In 2 of the last 3 years the team that eventually got the first overall pick won in Week 1 in big upsets that destroyed popular survivor picks.
Amit
12:30
Those teams had hope.  Az from the onset is designed to tank.
HSM10708
12:30
I am debating min or wash.  thoughts. 450 in pool prize i winner 150000
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:31
depends on how I think the pool will pick, since I am playing opponents. It's a pretty close call (safety, versus contrarian) and either is reasonable
funkstatic
12:31
Is there any research you guys have done to find at how many entries one hits diminishing returns in survivor? I'm in a huge pool where you can buy a ton of entries every year
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:32
I actually just recorded a video on this on Friday https://poolgenius.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/v...
I am about to wrap this up, it's been fun. Lots of good questions. I'm going to leave the chat open for about 10 more minutes past planned time, if you want to send any review comments on what you thought, feedback, etc.
Chad
12:33
Who would be your top 3 picks if you have to pick the loser?  Same as Survivor but you pick a loser each week and not a winner?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:34
saving Arizona and Houston (high future value). Considering Rams, Colts, Panthers. If I want to get a little wilder, maybe even Miami with the LT out at the Chargers.
Steve
12:34
In a pool of 100 and I have 8 entries. About 20 mins ago, 3 recommended picks switched from MIN to BAL and MIN is no longer recommended at all. (Others are sea and was).. reason for this?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:35
the line in Minnesota has dropped to -4 and a win odds shift down to 65%, making Minnesota slightly less attractive. If the others were already close, that could be enough to cause the shift.
12:37
Okay I am done with strategy answers, but if you want to send feedback do so. Specifically, if you have a preference for a chat feature like this, versus the Sunday AM strategy video we sent out last year, let me know in the comments.
Chad
12:39
I like the chat much better.  Its more specific and comes at an up to date time before kickoff.  Thanks
funkstatic
12:42
Chat is better than video, I agree!
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