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Sunday Chat - Week 2
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AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:30
Hi everyone, welcome to the Week 2 Survivor chat. Here's the morning article with notes on where our pick recs are going. I don't think much has changed in the 90 minutes since I wrote that. https://poolgenius.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/w...
11:31
Denver has moved up slightly, to -4. A lot of the other bigger favorites have seen the lines drop a bit through the weekend, but no notable movements in the last hour. That said, the inactives and active rosters for the early set of games are rolling in now, so we may see movement for early games if there are any surprises there.
11:33
So get your questions in, and I'll take as many as I can through 12:30 pm ET.
11:36
It looks like the Bills line has now settled at -7.5. It was at -9 at some points yesterday, but has been at that number since early this morning. So we may see the Bills fall a bit in the grades as a result, as if their win odds go down a bit, so does the EV, and the value of using them as a big favorite for safety.
11:40
the Dallas line has also settled now at -8, and that's a move down. Pinnacle and BetOnline have dropped it there this morning, a lot of the US books might be still at -8.5 but books like Pinnacle can tend to be a market indicator of where things are moving.

We were already light on Dallas because of future value reasons but that line move could have downstream impacts on other pick grades because of their popularity.
Nate
11:43
What do you think about the Lions/Seahawks game? At the beginning of the week I was getting a recommendation of using about 20% of my remaining picks on the Lions, by Wednesday-Thursday that was switched to the Broncos or Giants.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:45
That line has been moving downward, and doing so against public pick popularity. Our models have also been lower than the market on Detroit's win odds. So I would say that now, even by market odds, the Lions are only slightly above the Giants/Broncos, but have a fair amount more future value. That's why you've seen that swap.
11:46
The injuries for both sides in that game create some more uncertainty. Detroit has several players out including LT Decker. Seattle has multiple offensive linemen out.
Alan
11:48
Why not save Buffalo and only use Denver and Giants? In a large pool this seams to make sense , I think
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:50
You could certainly do this. It depends on your risk tolerance. Playing three of them across a group of picks gives a little more balance and diversity to how you play things. Playing both Denver and the Giants alone gives you a 42% chance of getting all entries through (at great future value savings) but a 13% chance of total elimination.
AP
11:51
A lot can happen this week. SF and Dallas future value is high but seem like safe picks this week.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:53
They are "safer" but neither is a massive favorite. Dallas is now down to  -8 and SF to -7. They do give you a better chance to get through this week than some other picks. It is almost certain they will be higher value later because you could soon have weeks where they are over 80% to advance, are being picked by less than 10% of public, and even more are on riskier options.
Ike
11:54
Yea you gotta throw in risk with giants and Denver who are both ass. Bills should bounce back to get you to next week.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:55
to win survivor pools, you will at some point have to pick teams that are uncomfortable, because they are in better spots than normal.
AP
11:55
I just don't trust Russel Wilson...
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:57
I also don't trust Russell Wilson as being as good as he once was, but (h/t Toby Keith) maybe he can be good once as he ever was, when going against a Commanders team that looks to be not very good either, as evidenced by their struggles against Arizona and Sam Howell taking some bad sacks and holding the ball too long.
AP
11:58
I feel the goal here I believe is in the first early weeks is to get to the next round we don't really know the teams yeat and how well they can play and they can be riskier than we think
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:58
Our goal is to win survivor pools. Advancing is important. Advancing with entries that can win late is too. All teams are riskier now, even the ones we think aren't.
AP
12:00
Absolutely it's a balance.
Ander
12:00
I’m being recommended 3 broncos and 4 giants and 1 bulls and I’m not feeling good about it
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:01
Ultimately, you decide how to pick your entries. We give our recommendations and advice. You can see how we grade the teams for your pools. If grades are close, we think decisions are somewhat similar. But if you aren't comfortable with a position, you can ultimately decide. Think of us like the advisor.
Tony
12:01
I have four entries in a pool with 608 remaining.  Why would the suggestion be DEN x 2, I get NJ and Buf
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:02
In a pool with 608, it's almost certainly going to the final couple of weeks, and you will need to make lots of picks. Denver is a pick that, if it gets through, gives that entry an edge over the field later in terms of using the better teams at higher value.
Justin
12:03
I have no Lions and 4/8 are broncos.  I went against you guys and used 1 Philly.  If I wanted to add back in lions should I replace Den or Buf or NYG?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:03
If you use Detroit, they probably make sense as a replacement for the Giants or Broncos picks, since the risk is similar and the rationale similar (the Lions just have more future value potential but it's not massive)
Chad
12:05
In a loser pool, any stronger lean comparing Las Vegas with the Jets-for the team to lose.
Thanks
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:06
I think Las Vegas has more future value in Loser Pools, but the Jets (or even the Rams) are picks to consider. I don't think any of them have so much future value you should get too much riskier by taking 3-4 point dogs this week. Jacksonville, I guess, would be the one that would make the most sense in large pools on "low future value" grounds.
Blake
12:07
At what point does the pick population on the Bills, Giants and Broncos get too high.  I noticed in Circa those 3 combined for almost 75% of picks
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:08
Circa is contest-specific, people are saving Dallas (Thanksgiving), San Fran (both holidays), Eagles (Christmas) and even Detroit (probably favored on Thanksgiving slate). Which pushed heavier picks to those 3.
Nate
12:09
It seems like I'm being recommended 3 teams to split my remaining picks: Giants, Broncos and Bills. (already had some picks get through with the Eagles) . Should I split all the remaining picks evenly between all 3 teams or weight one more than the others?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:10
Our portfolio recommendations likely distribute them based on your specific pools and sizes. Denver, to me, is a slightly better payoff than the Giants because it's more likely a particular pool is heavier Giants based on our data. So I would probably not be exactly equal on those two for that reason.
Randy
12:11
I'm lost on why the pick would be the Giants. This seems like a hot topic.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:11
No future value. A week with no team now favored by more than 8, so the win odds gap, while riskier, isn't as massive as it might be in other weeks. To win big contests, probably need Dallas and SF in better spots down the line.
Jm
12:12
I’m in large pool have 2 entries thinking of giants on one then safer for second don’t feel good about Buffalo or Dallas hate to use San Francisco
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:12
I don't think there's any "great" or obvious smash picks this week. They all have downsides. I too would hate to use SF before getting to Week 4 and either using them at home against Arizona when they will probably be -14 or higher (or save them if they will be massively popular on some entries)
Chad
12:13
The mile high air will be uncomfortable for the Commanders.  Always a big home advantage for the Broncos.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:13
Let's hope you are right
Vegas
12:13
Atlanta is moving up the rankings but not being selected. Thoughts???
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:14
Good question. Atlanta is now at -3, with 60% odds. Those are still lower than the Giants/Broncos/Lions group. If they rose another 3-4% they would be in the mix.
AP
12:15
Good luck everyone today. I have 2 picks and going Dallas and SF. If  I had to pick between Giants, Broncos and Bills I would take the Bills. Can't stomach the other 2.
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