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Sunday Chat - Week 2
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AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:16
survivor pools are all about stomach and fortitude, eh? The only thing I would say is that if you consider that you are not likely to win this pool, because there are so many entries (assuming it is a larger one) then you have to make some uncomfortable picks and embrace it at times.
Bg
12:16
Would you take some extra risks today knowing that you got through already with 25% of your portfolio with the eagles last Thursday?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:17
Good question. I don't know that it would change the mentality too much, but if I had them advancing some entries in a large pool, I might be more willing to get some low future value teams to advance too.
SY
12:19
Is it safe to use Denver and NYG even though they are negative EV (they are the top 2 recommendations currently)? I really want to be safe and use the number 3 Buffalo. I really regret not choosing Eagles when it was the number 1 pick on Thursday. Now I am forced to use a high future value pick to play safe.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:22
It's not safe to use anyone. They are negative EV now because the average payoff isn't over 1x, but if they allow you to use Dallas, San Fran etc in spots where they have EVs of 1.20 (when others will be using -EV picks) it works out as a 2v2 consideration.

On the safety. The chances of DEN/NYG both winning is 45% and both losing is 11%.

If you went BUF and either DEN/NYG, the odds of both winning is 52% and both losing is 8%.

So everything is relative. I think we envision teams as "safer" than they are relatively. Buffalo is more likely to win, but it's not like you are getting a massive advancement edge.
Ander
12:22
What about the saints as a option replacing giants or broncos
B
12:22
What about New Orleans @ Carolina? It seems like NO has the better D, QB and playmakers.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:27
On New Orleans, they are a very popular public pick, on the road at Carolina. Despite that popularity, the betting market is showing us resistance to pushing that line above 3, and the win odds above 60%. So the market is saying that Denver and the Giants have a higher chance of winning than the Saints.
12:28
(I personally like the Panthers, Saints overperformed in yards relative to points, hit some big plays but struggled to run without Kamara, and Panthers D and they were -3 in turnovers, an area of regression value)
AvatarTom
12:29
Hey all Tom from PoolGenius here, just wanted to chime in and say two things quick. First, thanks for being with us this year, and for participating in the chat. It's incredibly helpful for us to learn more about the types of questions and thoughts our subscribers have. Second, just wanted to stress a few things. We devoted a good chunk of our survivor strategy book to the psychological aspect of playing optimally and how difficult it is...and it seems like maybe we should expand on that even more in the future! :-) Just remember that every survivor pick should make you nervous. But a lot of people tend to irrationally inflate the relative sense of safety picking a brand-name team that in reality isn't all that much safer in a particular week. Dallas has a 1-in-5 chance of losing today, San Fran even worse at 1-in-4. Same odds to eliminate you as a .250 hitter has to get a hit in an at-bat.
Blake
12:30
My other question is about San Francisco…I know they have so much future value, but if you have multiple entries wouldn’t it be a good play to use them now when they’re a high win odds and low pick population instead of waiting to Week 4 when 40% of the pool is on them for example
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:32
I think you could justify them as a diversity sprinkle, but it would have to be a small percentage of my entries for me.

You could also save them in Week 4, and use them at really high value after that, so it's not a now or Week 4 thing only. It's a defer because they have so many good potential spots.

The EV is 1.06. That's solid, but I think it's likely they have 5-6 spots this year with an EV over 1.10, and some in the 1.20 range are possible. So if I were to guess, this isn't even a top 6 spot to use SF this year in terms of expected value.
12:34
Thanks everyone, that concludes the chat this week. I'll now be finding a spot to watch the Chiefs rebound against the Jags. Good luck getting those picks in, and let's hope for some good bounces this week.
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