Szymborski Chat, 12/7/2015
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Dan Szymborski
12:20
As the mariners can tell them, you can't just sign the best player available and call it a day.
Johnny5Alive
12:20
Thoughts on the A's and Madson? Seems like a very un-A's thing to do?
Dan Szymborski
12:20
I'm not a fan. Yeah, they may be able to flip him, but Madson's risky and that's a lot to gamble on a poossible flip
Jake
12:21
A few months ago, ESPN called the Phillies, Twins, Rockies, Reds, Braves, Marlins, D-Backs and Tigers the least analytically-inclined teams in baseball. All of these guys have either been in the cellar or gotten a new GM in the last few months; is it harder to dump overpaid vets through trades a la Matt Kemp, seeing as how there's a relative absence of 'idiot buyers'?
Dan Szymborski
12:21
It'll likely continue to get tougher, but GMs also aren't in overlords in charge of everything these days, either. When owners get involved, funny things can happen
Dakota McKee
12:22
What date are teams allowed to start negotiating with position player free agents?
Dan Szymborski
12:22
Several days after the World Series ends.
12:23
(Starring the off-topic ones for the Lightning Round)
Brian Cashman
12:23
Am I making any moves to trade away Gardner and sign Heyward? Or Howie Kendrick?
Dan Szymborski
12:23
Honestly, I don't know what they're doing.
Chorume
12:23
The Cardinals are projected - at the moment - for a 3rd place finish in NL Center. How much do they need a FA pitcher? Is it time to worry or just a matter of getting WAR anyway you can (Heyward and a 1B)?
Dan Szymborski
12:23
The Cardinals are a measured team and don't generally make gigantic splashes. I wouldn't definitely put them at 3rd (but I likely would) - I think all 3 teams are fairly close.
Mike S.
12:24
With the massive surplus of minor league pitching the Braves have accumulated, do you see them sending MiLB depth with marginal MLB assets to improve the starting 9? If so, who might they target?
Dan Szymborski
12:24
I do not.
GN
12:24
With the lack of quality 2B options around MLB are the Red Sox losing value by playing him in CF?
Dan Szymborski
12:25
I assume we're talking Betts. I dont' think they're losing value - CF is a crucial position as well and Betts has shown so far that he can be a pretty darn good one.
Calbear949
12:25
What is your best FA bargain signing this year? Worst?
Dan Szymborski
12:25
So far: Iwakuma, Pelfrey
JV
12:25
Would you rather have Gray and Samardizja OR Bumgarner next year?
Dan Szymborski
12:25
The former.
TommyLasordid
12:26
Dodgers keep both Chapman and Jensen, or does one get flipped in the near future? I like the idea of keeping both, but do you get full value?
Dan Szymborski
12:26
They can get nearly as much value in the 8th as 9th. Saves are just an accounting fiction.
Curtis
12:27
Chris Davis in Colorado pleases me...and I'm not a Rockies fan...What do you think?
Dan Szymborski
12:27
Oh, he'd hit a gazillion homers in Coors. And the team would win 75 games.
Lawrence
12:27
Do you think having 2 elite closers will be a goal of more teams this winter?
Dan Szymborski
12:27
Well, yeah, but it's a hard goal to achieve with the obvious elite closers that were on the market now being off the market
Owen S.
12:27
Career IP/ Career K-BB%/ Steamer 2016 projection Jansen: 340/ 31.4/ 25.7 Betances: 180.2/ 28.8 /25.6 That is some insane and inexplicable regression for Jansen. Especially considering he's never posted a sub 30.6 K-BB% except for his 27 IP in 2010. He is so freaking dominant and I'm not sure why he's not widely accepted as the #2 best reliever in all of baseball, by the community and by Steamer? All you hear is Davis, Betances, Miller, and Kimbrel when it comes to #2s. PS i loveyou. #endrant
Dan Szymborski
12:28
I don't run Steamer, so I don't have any particular insight into the whys and whatfors.
Sirras
12:28
ZiPS is WRONG about a player I like and I'm mad at you for your system having outputs based on inputs that don't agree with me! BLAHBLAHBLAHMADBLAHANGERBLAHISHOULDBERIGHTBLAH! (I'm sorry that you get a lot of this because your projections are quite nice to have, so thank you for sharing!)
Dave
12:28
Did Kang's success last year change the equation a bit as far as translating Korean players to MLB? I seem to recall that Kang did not get a very good ZIPS projection in 2015.
Dan Szymborski
12:28
He got a decent ZiPS, though nowhere near what he did in MLB.
12:29
But I don't think teams are going high-hog - you can't just assume that KBO is stronger than we though, simply because the sample size is tiny and there's no guarantee that he didn't just have a really good year
People made this same mistake with Jose Abreu, assuming that his first year was the new baseline for expectations and wiped away the uncertainty.
Curtis
12:29
How does Chapman and Jansen work in LA? Like Papelbon and Storen in DC?
Dan Szymborski
12:29
Hopefully with less choking
Eric
12:29
Hey Dan, this is Eric, creator of the new confusing chat software you are currently using. If you have any questions or trouble, feel free to shoot me an email to eric.perchuk@gmail.com and I'll help you out ASAP
Dan Szymborski
12:30
Crap
Uhh, how do I remove that?
(I'm not actually confused, I just like to cause trouble)
Brian
12:30
If Brantley really is out till August, are the Indians more likely to pull the trigger on a Carrasco/Salazar deal?
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