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The D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 15
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TxBaseball
1:32
Texas A&M/Arkansas or the field? What are you taking?
Joe Healy
1:32
On a neutral site, I'm taking A&M right now. The Aggies pitch well enough to partially offset Arkansas' advantage there, and right now, they are swinging the bats a whole lot better than the Razorbacks. But if we're playing this series on the campuses, I probably take the home team each time.
Kendall Rogers
1:34
Would agree with Joe here. I used to think Arkansas had a massive advantage in terms of overall pitching, but the Aggies have a bonafide ace now in Ryan Prager, Tanner Jones is throwing well and the bullpen is suddenly pretty loaded with the emergence of Cortez to go with Aschenbeck.
PIGS
1:34
Pigs bats were starting to look good the past few weeks before regressing pretty far in Tuscaloosa this past weekend.  How much of a concern is this especially now that our bullpen has shown that it is possible to beat on at least on the road?
Joe Healy
1:34
It's a concern in that Alabama did show that Arkansas can be vulnerable on the road when its pitching isn't as pristine as it has been for much of this season. We know that this isn't the most physical offense in the league, not even close, but I'll trust what we've seen for the first eight weeks of the season, which is that it's been good enough, over what happened last weekend.
95Tider
1:35
Big win for my Tide! For a reward we get the next #1.... Tough task, but chance to win the series against A&M?
trophy 1
Kendall Rogers
1:35
95 -- Definite chance to win. I think looking back at the Vandy series for A&M, the biggest key is not letting the Aggies get off to a very hot start. That happened in the first two games and doomed the Dores. Of course, the Dores got out to a nice lead in Game Three and still lost ... but that's your best chance to knock off those guys. Can lightning strike twice for the Tide?!
Ethan
1:37
Guess it’s time to panic about LSU. Jay Johnson is a great coach but this year has been massively disappointing. Allergic to getting clutch hits and hitting with RISP.
Joe Healy
1:37
Yes and no. It is time to panic in that the Tigers are officially out of slack now. But I'd also say no in that we have at least one or two teams in the SEC every season that get off to awful starts that end up figuring it out in the nick of time. Think Tennessee, Auburn and A&M last season. Or Ole Miss in 2022. This LSU team is as talented or more talented than those teams. It's a strange thing to say, but it's a massive road series with Missouri coming up. You never want to bank on a sweep, especially on the road, but it almost feels like that's what LSU has to have to get back on course.
Jacob
1:38
Does Cal sweeping WSU on the road mean anything to you? Or are their at-large chances basically zero anyways?
Kendall Rogers
1:38
Jacob - Definitely means something to me because I've seen Wazzu, and I think those guys are pretty solid. the RPI is up to 77, which would not be in as of today, but the conference record and RPI are trending upward. Finish strong and an at-large berth is still within reach. That Oregon State series at home this weekend looks VERY large for Coach Neu's club.
Jacob
1:42
Who are you looking at most to take a big step from this year to next year, and, off of that, is there anyone you are particularly excited to watch this summer with Team USA or on the Cape?
trophy 1
Joe Healy
1:42
This is a good question, and as far as Team USA and the Cape goes, I'm always excited to get a look at the pitchers coming off of a freshman season that just gave us a taste of how good they can eventually be. For this summer, I'm thinking of guys like Vanderbilt's Ethan McElvain (if he goes out in the summer; Vandy tends to be conservative with sending pitchers out), UNC's Jason DeCaro, and Florida's Liam Peterson and Luke McNeillie. As for guys who will make a jump, I always tell people to pay attention to the guys at the top of the Cape batting average leaderboard. The guys with real feel to hit tend to thrive there and can be a hint at who's making a leap.
Matt M
1:45
Texas Tech seems to have mastered the art of finding ways to lose games in which it out-hits its opponents.  Is this bad luck that will turn around eventually, or a sign to throw in the towel on this season and hope for next year?
Joe Healy
1:45
I think there may be something to a team still learning how to win. This is now a roster that's completely removed from Tech's years of getting to Omaha and learning to win at that level takes time. That said, there's no reason to throw in the towel on anything. I have the utmost confidence that Tech is still a regional team, and honestly, though it might be tough to believe, they're not out of the Big 12 race when you consider it has series against conference leaders WVU, OU and OSU ahead of it.
FittsMagic
1:45
Does the committee take close losses into accout? Mississippi State has dropped some brutal 1-run games this year. Is there any value in that or do you just gotta win?
Kendall Rogers
1:45
Fitts -- I'm sure there are members of the committee who take that sort of things into account in their own personal take on teams, but I've never heard a committee member say "well, we put them in because they only had X amount of one run losses". A loss is a loss and a win is a win in the eyes of the selection committee.
Cody
1:47
Could Bama make a run for a regional host like last year or be a 2 seed and make it out of that region and go to another super?
Joe Healy
1:47
Yes to both. Just look at the run last year's team (and Auburn) went on late in the season to get into a host spot. That said, my concern with Bama winning a regional, especially as a two seed, is pitching quality and depth. Ben Hess hasn't been the ace many anticipated him being, and while guys like Greg Farone and Zane Adams have stepped up in the face of injuries elsewhere, I worry about the Tide's depth if those guys drop off at all as the season goes on.
Guest
1:48
LSU seems done. I don’t see them getting to 14 wins in SEC play. Your thoughts ?
Kendall Rogers
1:48
Looking at the remaining schedule, I have LSU doing this:

@ Missouri W (5-13)
Auburn W (7-14)
A&M L (8-16)
at Alabama L (9-18)
Ole Miss W (11-19)

In that case, LSU either needs to upset someone like A&M or sweep someone like Missouri. I think they can win the Alabama series, too, even though it's on the road. The pathway to 13 wins in the league after getting swept over the weekend is tougher right now for sure.
pirate
1:50
does East Carolina have to finish #1 in the AAC to feel good about hosting? Obviously they are having a great year, they are 1 game behind UTSA and UTSA holds the tie breaker. If their RPI stayed in top 12/13 but they finished second in the conference, would that keep them out of a host spot?
Joe Healy
1:50
I don't think finishing second is a dealbreaker for hosting, especially if it turns out that UTSA wins the league and ends up being an at-large kind of team (though with a current RPI of 84, the Roadrunners have a long way to go before they can talk about that). Time and again, we've seen the committee lean hard on RPI as the predominant measure of which teams host, so I'd say as long as they stay in the range in which they need to stay there, the Pirates will be okay.
Brian
1:50
How is Indiana State not ranked?
Kendall Rogers
1:50
Brian -- Great question. Really like what the Sycamores have yet again, but they're behind some other teams in the pecking order. My biggest issue with the Sycs, for now, is that they haven't won a series against a team that will sniff the postseason, though Murray State is having a very solid year. Good club? You bet. More deserving to be ranked over some other teams? Not yet, IMO.
Goducks!
1:52
ducks look good. Season ticket holder and been to most every home game. Great conf record, haven’t lost a conf series, and wins vs Arizona and Ok. Rpi something to be worried about?!
Kendall Rogers
1:52
I think the Ducks are a very solid club. I liked the offensive potential when I saw UO at Globe Life earlier this season, and guys like RJ Gordon and Grayson Grinsell have thrown really well. The issue for the Ducks is just that the Pac-12/California schools are just putting together brutal RPIs. For instance, Oregon has played series against RPIs 225, 83, 278, 167, 79, and only two of those are out of conference.
FittsMagic
1:52
What was the reasoning for moving Kentucky ahead of Tennessee and Oregon State after a midweek loss and sweep of one of the worst teams in the SEC?
Joe Healy
1:52
Just speaking for myself since I'm just one voice of several, the fact that it was a road sweep (even over a team that's bad right now) carried some weight, as does the fact that UK is four games ahead of UT in the league standings against, frankly, a pretty similar group of SEC opponents. At some point we just have to look at an SEC team 14-1 in conference play and rank them accordingly.
Guest
1:54
How many Big 12 teams do you see making a regional? I think 5
Kendall Rogers
1:54
WVU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are very safe bets to make the tournament at this juncture. I'd throw Texas Tech, TCU and UCF in there, too. Kansas State and Texas would be two other teams I'd watch, and I might lean toward KSU being in as of today -- so seven teams. Still very fluid, but six seems like a very safe bet for now.
John
1:56
What are your thoughts on this Lamar team in the up and coming weeks?
Joe Healy
1:56
This Lamar story is super fun, and we did discuss them for our Top 25 this week. As someone who grew up loving college baseball in Texas in the late-90s and early-00s, it warms my heart to see the Cardinals performing like some of those classic Jim Gilligan teams of the past. A sweep of Oklahoma tells you all you need to know about how dangerous Lamar could be in a regional. With an RPI just outside the top 40 right now, they are within striking distance of an at-large spot if they don't win the auto bid, but with a decent number of games coming up against teams with bad RPIs, the Cardinals' margin for error in that regard is pretty thin.
PowerMajor
1:56
Is it fair to say that at this point, Lafayette/Irvine/Coastal are competing for the lone host site for a non P5? Are there any others (maybe DBU?) who could sneak in and any chance of more than one?
Kendall Rogers
1:56
Might wanna keep an eye on Indiana State as well. We will see if its RPI continues to stay in this range, but the Sycamores are up to 8 in the RPI. Outside of ISU, I love Louisiana's club, but the RPI being around 50 at this point is a total non-starter. That leaves the door wide open for someone like Coastal Carolina. As for DBU, I think this is a really really good club, but the last two weekends have probably put the Patriots well behind others in the pecking order.
Josh
1:59
While everyone is panicking over LSU and Florida....how far is UCF falling in terms of hosting potential if they can't get out of their own way in the Big XII? And could WVU go from first four out to potential host in just 2 weeks?
Joe Healy
1:59
Last weekend was tough for UCF. It was already a team no one was quite sure what to make of beforehand, so it did itself no favors in being swept by WVU. And because of how condensed the Big 12 standings are, the Knights are 10th in the standings now, which is wild. The good news is that also means that it won't take a crazy run to get back into the postseason race, especially with an RPI that has some helium. And to the WVU question, yes. The RPI will have to move a bit for hosting to be more of a reality, but it's in the neighborhood now.
SECHomer
2:03
If I understood you in the past an SEC team needs 14 league wins AND to be over .500 overall - is that correct (And Do SEC Tourney wins count in that number).   Where would the RPI need to be to get in with 13 wins .   I sense a number of SEC teams are going to head into the last weekend needing to win a couple to get to 14.
Joe Healy
2:03
It's a bit of a moving target, but you're generally correct. First off, by rule, you have to be over .500 overall to earn an at-large bid. But if you're an SEC team with 14 conference regular-season wins, you're looking at above-average odds of making the cut. If the RPI is in the top 25 matched with 14 wins or that team makes a run in Hoover, that should get them in. With 13 regular-season conference wins, there needs to be some combination of a really high RPI, a very soft bubble and a few wins in Hoover. Unlike last season when it seemed like we went to Hoover knowing exactly how many teams the SEC was going to put into regionals, I agree with you that this year it feels like we're going to have at least a couple of teams trying to fight their way into the good side of the bubble.
AJ
2:04
How surprised/impressed has Blake Burke's resurgence been? Liability in the lineup at the end of last year to making a  case as a top 5/10 hitter in the country now
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