JotCast | The D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 15

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The D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 15

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Joe Healy

2:04

It might be the single most impressive improvement any player has shown this season. Last season he hit barely over .200 in SEC play with five homers. This year he might lead the league in batting average in conference games! The big difference for him this season is he seems much more confident impacting the baseball the opposite way. Take the HR he hit in the finale of the LSU series as an example. That's simply not a HR he hits either of the last two years.

Brett

2:05

What’s your take on CUSA after this weekend? Could it potentially be a multi bid league with DBU having the best resume but WKU and LA Tech also having very strong years? Does a team like Western Kentucky have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament without winning the CUSA championship?

Kendall Rogers

2:05

My take is that this league is still very much wide open, but that the league is looking more and more like a one-bid league at the moment. I love what WKU is doing, but you are not getting in with an RPI of 93. DBU would obviously get in at 24, but outside of those teams, LT is 89 and Sam Houston is 62. Long way to go -- but not the greatest of postseason prospects at the moment.

DKS Vengaboy

2:07

Is Aiden Knaak the real deal? Up for any freshmen awards?

Joe Healy

2:07

Yeah he's the real deal. To me, the most impressive thing a freshman pitcher can do is take lumps early, hit the freshman wall and then push through it to be a better pitcher down the stretch. And to me, that's what we've seen with Knaak. He's leading the ACC in ERA in conference play, so if he keeps that up, he'll certainly be up for conference freshman of the year consideration.

Beavs AB

2:07

RPI out West is looking like it’s going to be a major issue. The big showdown between Oregon and Oregon State in 2 weekends, maybe the best series out West this year, will count as Q3 (!!!) games for Oregon State. How do you think the committee will factor in the RPI issues that teams in the West will inevitably have?

Kendall Rogers

2:07

Great question. There are a couple of instances where I think the RPI, personally, is just way off -- Louisiana and Oregon are perfect examples. The biggest issue facing the West and the Pac-12 in general is the fact the league is 117-75 out of conference thus far. By comparison, the Big 12 teams have a 7% advantage in winning percentage, and the SEC and ACC are almost +20%. That matters.

Kyler

2:09

If you had to pick one who do you think is more likely to make a regional Florida or LSU

Kendall Rogers

2:09

Probably Florida, but it's close. I'm not sure I'd pick either team to get to 13-14 wins in the league with the way they are playing right now -- but we will see. UF is obviously working from a position of strength vs. LSU with a better league record and the H2H.

Ben

2:10

47 runs in a road series win for UVA... that said, 47 runs and it was NOT a sweep. 1) How strong is UVA's offense (based on who they've played so far) and 2) how much do you think the pitching will hold them back from truly competing not just to get to Omaha, but to be a threat to win?

Joe Healy

2:10

Here's the thing about Virginia's pitching. Over the last few years, it never seems like it's going to be enough, and yet, they've been in Omaha two of the last three years. That staff has done a really good job of finding low-wattage guys out of the portal and turning them into usable ACC pitchers. Think Brian Gursky, Brian Edgington, etc. So while I'll agree with you that the pitching isn't impressive on paper right now (and I really don't like that some of UVA's best arms like Jay Woolfolk and Jack O'Connor have struggled mightily), I've been burned before thinking they'd never make a deep run with such a vanilla pitching staff.

Erik

2:11

Is...is the Big Ten a one-bid league?

Kendall Rogers

2:11

It's probably Nebraska and that's it unless someone gets hot or someone wins the Big Ten tournament. Man ...on a side note, just took a gander, and Iowa is now seventh in the league with an RPI of 127. That's just mind-blowing and frankly mystifying.

2:12

Georgia Tech has had some pretty high variance this year—what do you make of the Jackets?

Kendall Rogers

2:12

MB -- They have the making of a team that would either be a pushover in a regional or hell on wheels to deal with because of their offense. There's no doubt the Jackets can score a lot of runs, but I really do not trust their pitching staff at all. That makes for what should be a mighty interesting finish to the season for Danny Hall's club. They are 66 in the RPI, so as an ACC team with that bad of an RPI, there is a lot of work to do to make the field.

Naterdc

2:14

Does you think Louisiana has a realistic chance at hosting a regional if they finish strong in conference play (tough part of schedule coming up) and make some noise in the conference tournament?

Joe Healy

2:14

In terms of the quality of the team? Yes. That pitching staff is real and that's a differentiator from your typical good Sun Belt team. Most times, good SBC teams mash the ball and get by on the mound. UL is built the other way around and I think that's to the Cajuns' benefit. The sticking point is probably going to be the RPI. To your point, there are a lot of RPI points to be had on the schedule the rest of the way, but just taking a look at some of the RPI predictor metrics publicly available, it seems like a stretch for them to get inside the top 16 in the RPI, which isn't a necessity for hosting but is recommended. It's more likely that UL is an absolute nightmare of a two seed for an SEC team.

Andrew H

2:14

Does the weekend series loss to Rutgers take Nebraska out of the hosting conversation? Still think they are a tournament team, but not host material anymore.

Kendall Rogers

2:14

I do not. Nebraska put together a solid non-conference resume and is still 16 in the RPI. That's right in the thick of the hosting mix, it just means that there's a lot less margin for error moving forward, especially with how iffy the rest of the Big Ten is right now.

Brendan

2:15

Kentucky is legit, no doubt about that at this point. Is your opinion of them going to change much regardless of how well or poorly they play throigh their last five weeks? Is it fair to question them if they struggle?

Joe Healy

2:15

I think it's totally fair to question them if they struggle to get wins against teams like Tennessee and Arkansas still ahead of them on the schedule, and even more so if they don't play well in those games. Because two things can be true. UK is legit and also, it's possible that they're just a cut below the true national title contenders in the SEC and it's not a slight on what they've done to acknowlege that if it plays out that way.

Sam

2:16

Kentucky gets their first big boy this year at home in a park that doesn't necessarily fit Tennessee’s style of swing-it-and-bang-it. How do you see this weekend working out?

Kendall Rogers

2:16

I think Tennessee is the scarier team to me.... but Kentucky has been incredibly consistent in all phases so far in SEC play. It's hard to bet against UK at home, but I think I lean the Vols in this one.

Toast

2:17

I remember several weeks ago, the D1 team was digging their heels keeping UF in the Top 10, despite being just a few games over .500... while FSU hadn't lost a game. Can we get an admission of guilt from you that y'all stayed too anchored to your pre-season rankings? It seems that the masses were right.

Joe Healy

2:17

I mean, yeah, but that's part of ranking teams every week. We're going to get some things wrong and we're going to get some things right. I agreed with the logic of us hanging on to what we thought Florida would be, and armed with the results we have now, that was incorrect.

Timothy (WV)

2:20

With JJ Wetherholt and Logan Suave back in the lineup, and the Mountaineers on a 7-Game Big 12 Win streak... What are their chances of making a Run at being a Regional Host, and what would they need to do the rest of the way to make that happen this season?

Kendall Rogers

2:20

Probably pretty good if they finish in the top 2 or 3 of the Big 12. Right now WVU is 27 in the RPI with plenty of RPI opportunities down the stretch, not including the conference tournament.

Brendan

2:22

What are your thoughts on the NCAA rules that are going to keep UC San Diego out the postseason this season?

Joe Healy

2:22

I think it's silly. The reason given for the four-year transition period is so that it dissuades schools from making a hasty jump to Division I, but we've had so many teams make that jump in the last decade (not a criticism in any way, just a fact) that it doesn't seem like anyone is being dissuaded. I've always said that the NCAA should just do a good job vetting the financial and structural health of a school's athletic department and then trust that they're ready to be a Division I participant, with everything that comes with it. The list of teams that jump up to Division I and are immediate contenders are a much smaller number than those that jump and end up taking a while to get going. GCU and UCSD are a couple of recent examples of teams that were clearly ready, but unless there's something obvious I'm missing, I'm not sure why we've legislated a limit to their success.

Jacob

2:23

Does San Diego have a chance at an At Large if they don’t win conference tournament?

Kendall Rogers

2:23

If San Diego's RPI held firm in the 30-40 range, it would still have a very solid shot to make the postseason. I feel like where a WCC team goes wrong in the at-large pecking order is when that RPI gets north of 40-ish.

2:25

Is RPI in College Baseball what NET is in College Basketball? Should it be relied on or not is what I am curious to understand?

Joe Healy

2:25

It's a more primitive version of the NET. College basketball actually did away with RPI in favor of the NET. The gripe about the RPI (which I agree with, by the way) is that it's overly simplistic and takes too few factors into account. It's also fairly easily manipulated. At this point, there are certain programs that have more or less unlocked the perfect RPI scheduling formula. Kudos to them for that because it's the metric that the sport uses, but I've never liked the idea that scheduling correctly has an outsized level of importance.

Guest

2:25

Cajuns have most of the tough series coming up. If they continue to win series do you think the rpi could get up high enough to enter the hosting picture

Kendall Rogers

2:25

Guest -- UL has no way to reach the Top 16 in the RPI no matter what it does the rest of the regular season, but it can reach the 20-30 range. That means there's at least a pathway with the rest of the regular season + the conference tournament.

Mike

2:26

Do you think the Ragin Cajuns can get an auto bid? How far do you think the Ragin Cajuns can make it? Pitching is there but can the batting hang?

Joe Healy

2:26

Lots of UL questions this week; I love it! If they continue to win at this clip, yes, they'll be an at-large (which I thin k is what you're asking). Its RPI isn't good enough right now, but it has the toughest part of the schedule in front of them and if they win enough of those games, the RPI will take care of itself.

Chris

2:28

Is there a better starting pitcher than Trey Yesavage?

Joe Healy

2:28

Hagen Smith, but after that, the list is extremely small and Smith may be the only name on the list. His numbers are bonkers and it continues to amaze how well ECU seems to develop a new staff ace like this most years. That rotation, even beyond Yesavage, gives the Pirates a shot to beat anybody in the postseason.

Pete

2:30

How important is that RPI number as opposed to season records especially with the RPI issues out west? Would a team that wins 32-35 games with a RPI around 45 be more likely to get an at large than a team that wins 40 but has an RPI around 75?

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