JotCast | The D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 22

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The D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 22

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Aaron Fitt

12:58

Their stock is definitely on the rise, but that poor nonconference SOS really hurts their resumé, which is why their RPI is still outside the top 60 despite a 9-9 ACC record (which would usually equate to a much better spot in the RPI rankings). If the season ended today, they would be outside the field of 64 because of that RPI -- but when we meet for tomorrow's Nerdcast, I have a feeling we'll project the Jackets in, because they are playing well and it feels like their RPI will continue to climb, given the competition ahead of them. I think if they get to 14 ACC wins, they probably wind up in the field.

Jacob

1:01

How would you tier the PAC-12 right now? How many teams can make the tournament? How many can make it to Omaha? How many can win it all?

Kendall Rogers

1:01

Jacob -- good question.

TEAMS IN: Arizona, Oregon, California, Oregon State w/ Utah on the bubble. I was wondering how much Cal's RPI would go up, and I think the Golden Bears would project in at this point with an RPI of 48. I am pretty concerned about Oregon's RPI at this point, but I still have faith the Ducks will finish relatively strong -- and of course, the human polls like them. UO is very solid (I saw them in person earlier this year).

1:03

What do you think the path looks like if any for this Western Kentucky team to make a regional?

Kendall Rogers

1:03

Love what the Hilltoppers are doing this year and would love it they could get into at-large contention, but right now, they're sitting in the 80s RPI wise with no pathway to get into the Top 45. Maybe if they win the league and then get to the final game of the conference tournament, that would get them there? If so, I think the likelihood of Marc Rardin's team getting in increases exponentionally.

Champ

1:03

Thoughts on Louisiana Tech making a regional this year?

Aaron Fitt

1:03

Definitely in the hunt, especially after winning that road series at DBU this past weekend -- that was an absolutely huge series for La Tech, particularly after getting swept the previous week at Arizona. Suddenly they're up to No. 56 in the RPI -- they probably need to get into the 40s by the end of the year to have a realistic shot, and there's a path. They're also in a good spot in the standings at 8-4. Winning the regular season title in C-USA would be a huge boost; currently they're two games behind WKU and one game behind surprising FIU. I think if they can win the league, I'll like their chances for an at-large.

Eric Simmons

1:03

What is it going to take for Indiana to get an at large bid? I think winning the rest of their series

Kendall Rogers

1:03

Long way to go -- 77 RPI as a Big Ten. Hoosiers will need to finish the season very strong to have a chance to make the field.

Guest

1:04

Realistically, can ECU win their remaining series without sweeping and still host?

Aaron Fitt

1:04

I think probably so, yes. Pirates are in a position of real strength right now.

Chris

1:05

Louisville has a much higher ELO and Massey rating, but the RPI is dragging behind. What would the Cards need to get to RPI wise to make the Tournament if they finish above .500 in a brutally tough ACC?

Kendall Rogers

1:05

chris -- This is a classic example where I think the DSR is more accurate than the RPI -- Louisville is somehow in the 80s RPI wise, where as DSR has the Cards at 41. That seems way more accurate to me considering what the Cardinals have done. That series at home against Clemson this weekend is massive. Win that series and I bet the RPI goes up significantly.

Andy Grnbmrnr

1:06

Who do you have winning the Pac-12 at this point? Costly weekend for the Beavs with Oregon and Arizona still on the horizon. Do you think any teams in the group of (Oregon, Arizona, Utah) have a roster capable of reaching Omaha?

Aaron Fitt

1:06

Gosh, I think at this point I have to jump off the Oregon State ship and switch to Arizona, at 13-5 in the league. Ultimately I still believe the Beavers are the best team in the Pac, the team with the best chance to get to Omaha, but they've got some things to figure out in the bullpen, and they're now 2.5 games behind Arizona in the standings. And I just think Arizona is a very solid all-around club, with three weekend starters that they can trust, a deep and varied bullpen, and enough in the lineup. Could see them making an Omaha run, sure.

Jaxon S

1:06

What is Texas’ margin for error to still be in the NCAA tournament? 🤘🏼

Kendall Rogers

1:06

Texas reminds me of Kansas State on Selection Monday last year, and TCU in early May last year. Decent conference standing, but abysmal RPI (72) for a potential at-large team. Longhorns REALLY need to win that series against Oklahoma this weekend to right the ship RPI-wise.

Craig

1:09

In addition to RPI, which is an imperfect metric, what other factors does the committee consider when determining hosts?

Aaron Fitt

1:09

Conference standings, certainly, are important. I think only one or two teams in the last 20 years have hosted without a winning record in conference play (Mark Etheridge has those exact numbers). They look at nonconference strength of schedule, overall strength of schedule, road record, record vs. Q1 and Q2 opponents, and record down the stretch, say in the final 15 games (even though all of those things are also baked into the RPI). The committee chairmen are fond of saying that it's more of an art than a science, but they have a bunch of data points to blend together. Unfortunately, too often they wind up just leaning on the RPI as a crutch.

SDSouthpaw

1:11

Can you see a path for CSUN to have an RPI low enough to get a third Big West bid? How many games do they need to take from Irvine and Santa Barbara to make it happen?

Aaron Fitt

1:11

RPI is still an issue for the Matadors, at No. 78 right now. The RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World suggests the Matadors need to win about 15 of their final 18 games to get into the top 45, which is generally a good target for an at-large team, although West Coast teams have a little more leeway and get sometimes get in with RPIs in the 50s. So there's a path, but it won't be easy.

kitag01

1:12

Excited to see the matchup between Charlie Condon and Braden Montgomery this weekend in College Station. You always hear coaches say things like, "we aren't going to let that guy beat us". How do you think the two pitching staffs will approach those two dangerous hitters?

Kendall Rogers

1:12

You might want to take cover for takeoff this weekend in College Station. It's supposed to be warm and windy in College Station this weekend, and that means a stiff breeze going straight out to left field. I think Condon is a little easier to at least try to pitch around, where as I don't think I want to pitch around Montgomery to face one of the tougher ABs in the SEC in Jackson Appel. I should be up in CS for one of those games, and the NerdMaster General Mark Etheridge is also making an appearance.

Vol Fan

1:13

Blake Burke. Christian Moore. It's fun to watch their homer competition, but what about Burke's improvement at first base? The guy is over there catching ball while doing a somersault, running over to get the bunt and firing it to third, etc. Don't ya wanna ask Burke, "What did you do over last summer and fall of '23 to up your game so dramatically at defense and even at the plate this year?"

Aaron Fitt

1:13

That's a good call -- watching some of that series this weekend, I was really impressed by Burke's defense, and I know it's something Joe and Mark have been talking about for a while now. He's really turned himself into a very good all-around player -- a huge maturation for a guy who used to be more of a one-dimensional thumper. His at-bats are better, he's hitting a lot more doubles in addition to hitting homers, and he has become a quality defender. Really neat story of a guy who always had talent working hard and putting it all together.

Vol Fan

1:14

Vols and Kentucky felt like a super regional. Tony V said it's scary to think there are even better teams out there. Don't you think the Aggies and Vols have the best line up offensively? Those two teams going at it would be the ultimate show down.

Aaron Fitt

1:14

It did feel like a super regional, and I'm not surprised that it got a little chippy too -- that was an intense weekend, and I think both of those teams are Omaha-caliber, clearly. And I do agree with your statement about A&M's and Tennessee's offenses. That would be quite a show.

Cajuns Digi Camo Jersey

1:14

With the Cajuns' RPI at 43 following this weekend, and a tough schedule to finish the season, at what point can fans take a deep breath and be confident that the Cajuns will receive an at large bid?

Kendall Rogers

1:14

The Cajuns have done enough to this point to make the tournament. But you're right, from an RPI standpoint, I would want to finish strong just to leave nothing to chance. I do really like this team. I still feel great about the front-line pitching, and the offense can step up when it needs to. I like the Cajuns at home against USM this weekend.

JEL

1:16

Gonzaga turning it around in WCC conference play after brutal start to non-conference slate. If they take conference tourney, and qualify for post-season, do they have enough mettle to make to a Super?

Aaron Fitt

1:16

Yeah, quite a turnaround -- and winning that series against Portland this weekend was another big statement for the Zags. They are the clear favorite to win the conference tournament now. And I like teams that are battle tested because of playing such a strong nonconference schedule -- that tells me those guys won't be intimidated if they can make it to a regional. They could indeed make some noise.

Drew - Go Ducks!

1:18

Okay, convince me to *not* be worried about Oregon. If we’re being honest, they lose this weekend to OSU..their Rpi (ridiculous) isn’t good. They have 3 winnable series to end the pac12, but what should my worry level be?

Aaron Fitt

1:18

RPI Needs Report says the Ducks need to win about 10 or 11 of their final 15 games to get into the top 45. I'd say if they can win 9 of those 15, they'll be in pretty good shape, particularly if that means winning three of their final four series, which would get them to 18 or so wins in conference. I think that would get them in fairly comfortably.

B1G

1:22

With the stronger teams not all coming out flames blazin in the big ten race, how do you foresee it playing over the next month+ with Illinois and Michigan near the top?

Aaron Fitt

1:22

Great question -- and I have no idea what to make of the Big Ten at this point. I'm still not ready to fully buy in on Illinois, and with series left at Maryland and vs. Iowa, we'll see what the Illini are made of down the stretch. They are 10-2 in the league, and they do have a nice road series win at Indiana, but the last two conference series came against lesser teams in the league. Michigan has a more impressive resumé to me, with series wins vs. Maryland, at Iowa and vs. Ohio State. Wolverines have been pitching a lot better than they did early, and I'm wondering if they might just be the team to beat in the league.

WPS918

1:24

How concerned should Arkansas fans be with the lack of production offensively?

Kendall Rogers

1:24

I gotta admit, I'm concerned about Arkansas' offense to some degree. There are certainly guys throughout that lineup that can have a hot game, etc, but at the end of the day, if it quacks like a duck it's likely a duck, and the fact is Arkansas' offensive lineup at the top is not in the same area code of teams like Tennessee and A&M. Frankly, it puts a ton of pressure on guys like Hagen Smith to pitch at a very high level every Friday ... thankfully, Hagen is pretty damn good.

Oh Say Can You ACC?

1:24

Can we talk about how we really have to squint to see a ninth team (GT) out of the ACC right now? Could the Big East or indistinguishable middle of the Big 12 benefit from this, or are we just going to default to bottom-division SEC teams?

Aaron Fitt

1:24

I talked about Georgia Tech's path earlier -- they just need to boost that RPI, and they'll have opportunities ahead to do it. So they're very much in the hunt, even though right now they'd be on the wrong side of the bubble because of the RPI. But I do think this is a year where we'll see more middle of the pack Big 12 teams or Big East teams or CAA teams, Sun Belt teams get in -- things of that nature. The SEC feels on track to get 10 bids, but Ole Miss or LSU will have to really make a run to get to 12 or 13 SEC wins in order to have a shot. Still don't think I see that happening.

Baxter

1:28

Tennessee has hit 29 homeruns in their 3 SEC road series this season, and also hit 4 while playing at Globe Life. Can this narrative about only hitting homers at Lindsey Nelson and "Wait till they play in a bigger ballpark" die? Not necessary directed at the D1 guys (though there has been some suggestion of that), but the college baseball nation as a whole goes on and on about this. Vols just mash anywhere.

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