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The D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 29
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Champ
12:03
Does Louisiana Tech have a shot to crack the Top 25? They have been on fire the last couple of weeks
Kendall Rogers
12:03
Champ -- Louisiana Tech was in the mix to enter the Top 25 this week for sure. The Bulldogs were behind a couple of teams, but they're right there. I've been pretty impressed with LT as of late. The thing about this team coming into the season is that it had a lot of experience... and we're seeing that experience at play after they had no panic at all after the slow-ish start. BTW, our Walter Villa will have some great content on Ethan Bates a little later this week.
Bob in ATX
12:04
Big series win for Texas last weekend. Because close with OSU, KU and UCF (all in the top 65 in RPI), is it as simple as going 5-4 in those 9 games to make the field? Could they get in going 4-5?
Kendall Rogers
12:04
Yeah -- the weekend was huge for UT's RPI. It vaulted from the mid-70s all the way up to 58. That is an absolute game changer. 5-4 would easily get UT into the field, and I think 4-5 would be doable, too, as long as they don't just totally stink up the joint in Arlington. Texas is suddenly in a solid spot -- but would not get complacent just yet.
Vol Fan
12:05
The Vitello Effect. Jordan Beck just called up to the Rockies! The show! Trey Lipscomb called up AGAIN. These guys were playing college ball in 2022. Now it's looking like Cal Stark is gonna be drafted when a year ago that didn't seem quite the case. Between V, Q, A, and E, they are producing and developing massive talent. Can no longer be doubted at any angle.
Aaron Fitt
12:05
Agreed -- Vols are an absolute machine right now. The level of talent they are recruiting and developing is simply insane, and of course the wins have corresponded to the talent. That program is rolling.
TxBaseball
12:05
Do you discount results from double-headers at all? Not necessarily for rankings but when you consider team quality. For both wins and losses, playing 18 innings on one day is different than playing three games on three separate nights (bullpens, player fatigue, fans, etc.). Mainly thinking about Arkansas and Texas A&M from this week
Kendall Rogers
12:05
I don't really discount doubleheaders. You are right in that it is very different. For instance, if you have a stud reliever, you may have to use him in the first game not use him in the second game, where as typically you could bring him in back to back days. With that said, they are still weekend games vs. midweek games, and that's all that really matters to me.
Zach
12:06
How many teams from the Big 12 have a chance at hosting?
Kendall Rogers
12:06
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and MAYBE West Virginia if it finishes very strong. WVU is tied with OSU in second place and has an RPI of 36. A long way to go to get into contention, but there's at least a pathway. But it looks like an OU or OSU show right now.
GoNoles11
12:06
Hey guys thanks for the great coverage. FSU finally got their marquee series victory at Duke. Are they a national seed if they just win their final three series (NCSU, at Pitt, GT)? Can they afford to drop one?
Aaron Fitt
12:06
Yeah that was a huge series win for the Noles, no question about it. They're definitely in great shape for a top 8 seed now, and I think if they win two of those final three series to get to 18 ACC wins, that should pretty much lock it up. And if they can be healthy on the mound in June, I would regard them as one of the leading national title contenders -- the quality of their arms separates them from most other top contenders, and FSU also has high-end position players to match. Very formidable club.
Bluejay19
12:08
What do you make of a resume like Creighton’s and their path to an at large? 3-0 against top 25 teams and undefeated in mid week games but currently not projected to make big East tournament.
Aaron Fitt
12:08
It is a very odd resumé. They are 30-11 overall, so obviously they've been very good all year, but that 4-7 record in the Big East is an eye sore, and losing that series to Georgetown at home was a major blow, offsetting a lot of the good they did by sweeping Coastal in the midweek. Not that Georgetown is a bad series loss -- that's a good club too. But Creighton simply must find a way to climb up the Big East standings quickly. I don't see a Big East team that doesn't finish in the top 3 in the standings getting a bid.
SadDeac
12:10
Tough weekend for Wake Forest...Hartle with a really rough start after putting together 5 decent starts in a row. Do you think he'll ever re-capture his 2023 form, or is he going to be much more volatile through the rest of the year? Seems like Wake won't be a serious Omaha contender if he's this volatile and Massey can only go 3 or 4 innings every weekend.
Aaron Fitt
12:10
You nailed it, Hartle and Massey are the two biggest keys for Wake Forest to make a title run. Hartle was SO dominant all year long last year and I think it's unrealistic to expect him to get back to that, at this point. But they still have a month of regular season games to get him and Massey on track, and that coaching staff has earned the benefit of the doubt. So I'm still keeping Wake in that top handful of teams that have the pitching to win it all -- they just need those top arms to pitch like top arms, as we've seen from them in the past. It can certainly still happen.
Heel
12:12
Chances the ACC ends up with 4 of the top 8 national seeds? Seems like Clemson, FSU, and UNC are all in strong shape currently.
Aaron Fitt
12:12
Agreed on those three, they all look like pretty good bets for top 8, assuming they are able to sustain good play down the stretch. After Wake's setback, I'm not sure I see a fourth ACC team getting into that top 8, although the Deacs could still make a late push and Virginia and Duke are in striking range, for sure. But if I had to bet, I'd bet on 3.
Parker
12:12
How do you evaluate/separate the top 4 teams in the SEC?  They are all top 5 in RPI and all within a game of each other in the standings.  Who do you like to win the league with the remaining schedules?
Kendall Rogers
12:12
Great, and tough question. As for right now, look ahead to the postseason, I have the most conviction in Texas A&M and Tennessee, and then Arkansas in that order... and obviously Kentucky after that. I just think A&M and Tennessee have the right blend that you need, where as Arkansas has an elite pitching staff with an offense that tends to sputter a lot. That really concerns me looking ahead to the postseason. All three/four teams have difficult finishes. Maybe A&M? Flip a coin ...
RaginCajun
12:14
More comment than question. It’s crazy to think that the 4th best RPI conference, won’t have a team host a regional. Wish the Cajuns would have taken care of business earlier in the year.
Aaron Fitt
12:14
Yeah, you're right, Louisiana's RPI is just a nonstarter for a host candidate, and the other good teams in that league are too far back in the standings and/or RPI to make a run at it.
Chris
12:16
What do you think the Aggies need to do down the stretch to seal a top eight seed?
Kendall Rogers
12:16
19 SEC wins is the pathway for A&M, and right now they're at 15. Basically, they'd have to collapse at this stage to not be a Top 8.
MB
12:16
Did you guys happen to see the Georgia Tech pitching this weekend? 👀👀👀
Aaron Fitt
12:16
Yeah, how bout that? Cam Jones going the distance in the middle game was enormous -- I voted for him for ACC pitcher of the week even though he gave up a few runs, because that was such a big-time performance. Tate McKee is a super-intriguing talent and was awesome on Sunday too, and Finateri was nails on Friday. That feels like a sustainable rotation -- they won't be THIS good every week, but it feels like a group Tech can count on down the stretch. Which makes that team very dangerous, because we know they can rake.
InsideVilleBsb
12:19
I asked this last week, and after a 2-2 week, Louisville still has an RPI that is lagging way behind all other metrics and rankings. 15-15 in the loaded ACC this year should be enough to get the RPI into the top 60 and they would likely make the Tournament, correct?
Aaron Fitt
12:19
Yeesh, Louisville being stuck at 77 in the RPI is definitely a problem. They're at BC, at UNC and vs. Notre Dame down the stretch, with good midweeks at Vandy and vs. Indiana. The RPI Needs Report at Boyds World estimates the Cards can climb into the top 45 if they win 10 of their final 13 games, so I would think winning about 8 of 13 would get them around 50. Typically, that's not good enough for an ACC team, even with a .500 conference record, but it would at least give them a shot.
Mason K
12:19
How is DBU not in the top 25 over Utah? Better record, RPI, SOS, Q1 and Q4 record. Can you make sense out of it?
Kendall Rogers
12:19
You're wanting to make sense of why a team who lost THREE straight series to Western Kentucky, Air Force and Louisiana Tech isn't ranked over Utah, which has won every single series this year outside of a road series vs. a top six team? I really like DBU's club, but under no circumstance should it be re-ranked just yet.
Dan
12:20
Is it fair to say the top 4 national seeds are pretty much set at this time, baring may epic collapses of course?
Kendall Rogers
12:20
Would be very surprised at this juncture if Texas A&M, Tennessee and Arkansas aren't three of the top five national seeds. I still feel good about Clemson, where as I wouldn't be shocked if someone like ECU or Florida State ends up being the fifth national seed over Kentucky. We'll see how UK is down the stretch.
TxBaseball
12:21
How far down your top-25 rankings would you go and draw the line before you would feel confident the winner of the national championship is above that line? I know anything can happen in college baseball, but its hard for me to see someone outside of the top 3 not winning the whole thing.
Aaron Fitt
12:21
I actually do think there there are some teams lower down in the rankings that could get hot and have the personnel to win it all in Omaha. Certainly East Carolina's frontline pitching makes that team a viable contender (even though first-time Omaha teams almost never win it all). I mentioned FSU earlier, if they're healthy in June they have real arms too. Wake Forest, if Hartle and Massey can get going. That's the group of teams i have my eye on.
Jim
12:22
Could we see a scenario where all 3 of Florida, LSU and TCU miss the postseason? Seems wild to think about. 3 preseason top 5 teams. Which of those 3 have the best chance to make the field as things currently stand today?
Kendall Rogers
12:22
Definitely could happen. LSU has some serious ground to make up to get to 13 conference wins, TCU is '11th' out of 13 teams in the Big 12 despite having a solid RPI .. Florida is the team I feel the best about right now. The Gators have 9 league wins with 9 games to play. I think they get to 13 conference wins before Hoover.
Cougs24
12:23
how does charleston’s series win at campbell influence their tournament hopes?
Kendall Rogers
12:23
Most certainly helps. C of C is in almost an identical position with UNCW in the at-large race, and the Cougars have the head to head over the Seahawks. Cougars safe? Not really, but most definitely there now and trending the right direction overall.
Daffy
12:24
Thoughts on Oregon after their toughest weekend of the year? Obviously a series loss is never ideal but it seemed extremely competitive with some great pitching. Are they right back in the rankings with a series win over Utah this weekend?
Aaron Fitt
12:24
Yeah the Ducks certainly held their own in a tough rivalry series on the road, in the toughest place to play on the West Coast. And as you mentioned, the Ducks pitched great, which is very encouraging. I still see Oregon as a regional team, with a chance to make a run in the postseason, but after losing 5 of their last 9 games they may not just jump back into the top 25 next week. Maybe going 3-1 vs. OSU and at Utah would do it though.
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