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The D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 29
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Noles
12:26
What are your thoughts on FSUs national seed chances? Feel like the Duke series win was a huge step in right direction
Kendall Rogers
12:26
Feel great about the Noles. Already felt pretty good about FSU, but it looked very good on the mound for the most part in two games against a quality Duke club on the road. I expect FSU to be a top eight on Selection Monday with a legitimate shot to win the national title, given a couple of those arms come back healthy and ready to roll.
JJ
12:28
Confidence level on the Gamecocks finding a way to host?
Aaron Fitt
12:28
I suspect the Gamecocks will wind up as a host -- they've just been quietly hanging around, not getting swept, winning a couple big series (sweeping Vandy and now taking 2 of 3 from Kentucky), and suddenly they're up to 11th in the RPI. If they can get to 16-14 in the SEC, which means going 5-4 at Mizzou, vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, then I think they wind up hosting. And I think they will do it.
Omaha Husker
12:31
Nebraska's RPI is down to #25 now even with a series win. Not much to worry about from an at-large standpoint, but with the state of the B1G, how close are they to dropping out of the field?
Aaron Fitt
12:31
Oh they're nowhere near dropping out of the field, I think they've got plenty of leeway thanks to that RPI and their strong position in the standings. I'll be very very surprised if Nebraska winds up outside the field of 64 come Memorial Day. That's a good club with a good resumé, and I don't see them falling off. The lack of other strong at-large teams in the Big Ten doesn't hurt them; if anything it helps them, because the committee will surely be inclined to include a second Big Ten team if there's one with a solid case.
Grayson
12:33
Is Texas Tech suddenly in a position where it needs to win its final two series (vs OU and OSU) to make a Regional? Would going 3-3 in those two series be enough?
Aaron Fitt
12:33
I *think* 3-3 in those two series would probably get them in, you'd expect them to get an RPI boost from those two weekends, which they need since they're currently at 41, which is the right side of the bubble but still on the bubble.
Dawg17
12:33
How bout those bulldogs....what does MSU need to do down the stretch to have a chance at hosting?
Kendall Rogers
12:33
Dawg -- MSU actually has a pretty damn good pathway to hosting. RPI is at 28 right now, but should continue to go up. Take series from Alabama and Missouri (at home) to get to 16 wins, and win another at Arkansas or something, and boy, the Bulldogs would be sitting in a very very solid spot. How about that? Perhaps Chris Lemonis isn't so clueless... :)
cool 2
Dill
12:36
What does LSU need to do to make the NCCA Tournment?
Kendall Rogers
12:36
Dill -- 13 wins is the goal. Right now, LSU is at 7 wins, and I have the Tigers finishing with a series loss to A&M, a series loss at Alabama and a home series win over Ole Miss. That would put LSU at 11 wins going into Hoover. Would have some work to do. Steal the Alabama series and they'd STILL need to win a game or two in Hoover to be safe. Not a fun position to be in.
charliewt
12:37
Big West race could be interesting down the stretch with the three way tie at the top. CSUN has a very backloaded schedule but is also third in the conference in DSR and around 50 overall. In general this feels like the best Big West year since the recent offensive explosion.
Aaron Fitt
12:37
Yeah I think you're right, good year for the Big West. And I love you citing the DSR! That is definitely a case where I think the DSR paints a more accurate picture of CSUN than the RPI, where they are No. 80. Unfortunately the committee still uses RPI and not DSR, so the Matadors are unlikely to get an at-large bid -- but they could win the automatic bid that comes with the regular-season title and make the Big West a three-bid league. That would be cool to see. That's a proud baseball league and I think the sport is better when the Big West is up.
GeoDawg
12:39
Say three weeks from now Mississippi State is sitting at 17-13 and Georgia is sitting at 16-14. Georgia is projected to finish top 12 rpi while State is predicted 25-30 rpi. State has the head-to-head and record advantage while Georgia has an overwhelming rpi advantage. South Carolina goes on a run and also gets to 16-14. Who are the SEC's 5th and 6th hosts?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
In that scenario, history tells us the committee will simply lean on the RPI, and Mississippi State will be left out in the cold. But if State can really go on a run (and its remaining schedule is favorable, as KR pointed out) to climb to around 20 heading into Hoover, I like its chances over Georgia.
cool 1
Dill
12:41
What are the chances/ what does LSU need to do to make the NCAA tournament? Geaux Tigers!
Aaron Fitt
12:41
It feels like LSU really let its window get even smaller by failing to sweep either Missouri or Auburn. At 7-14 in the league, the Tigers could have really used at least one sweep of those two teams. Now they've got A&M, at Alabama, vs. Ole Miss. If they win all three of those and get to 13 wins in the league, I think they sneak in. But I don't really like their chances, and I don't think 12 wins will get it done.
Andrew
12:42
How close was Troy to being ranked this week?
Aaron Fitt
12:42
In the mix for sure -- Troy's resumé suddenly looks a whole lot better after sweeping Coastal on the road, putting them in great at-large position. We nearly ranked Troy in the preseason because we are very high on their talent, and it feels like they are peaking at a great time. If they can win this series at home against the Cajuns this weekend, I feel pretty confident they'll be ranked next week.
Josh
12:45
Who is the ACC Pitcher of the Year leader in the clubhouse right now, Arnold or Burns? For me personally I'd go Arnold but wanting to get your thoughts gents, thanks as always.
Aaron Fitt
12:45
I also lean Arnold right now -- his ERA in conference play is 2.70, and Burns is at 3.48. Burns' strikeout numbers are insane, but Arnold's are great also -- and both guys have also posted good walk rates. The dark horse is Aidan Knaak at Clemson, who is 3-0, 1.85 in conference play, best of any pitcher in the league. Also a 53-6 K-BB in 39 innings. Insane production from a true freshman, and he needs to be right there in the conversation with Arnold and Burns. If the season ended today, Knaak should probably be the pick, in fact. But I'm betting on Arnold when the dust settles.
cool 1
Josh
12:47
Florida's final midweek game this week vs USF is huge in terms of overall record to remain at .500 or better to be eligible for NCAA trny. And given the series' they have left (esp Tenn) they may have to win 2-3 games in Hoover to continue to be eligible and they're likely to have a draw that has them potentially play A&M, Ark, or Tenn in 2nd round. Yikes.
Aaron Fitt
12:47
You are exactly right. We broke this down on the Nerdcast last week... it's a daunting path for Florida with zero margin for error. Every single game counts a ton for them.
Fuego
12:47
Does Louisiana have a chance to host a regional?
Kendall Rogers
12:47
Fuego -- No shot to host a Regional for the Cajuns. RPI is way too high at 50. Reminds me of TCU a couple of years ago when it won the Big 12 but had an RPI problem, and hit the road to the College Station Regional. Same type of scenario IMO
Pablo
12:48
Is John Savage on the hotseat?  Whats going on at UCLA ?
Kendall Rogers
12:48
John Savage is a championship head coach, so any talk of him on the hot seat is laughable. But there's ZERO doubt this season has been disappointing and not a very good sign as the program heads to the Big Ten. Obviously, the Bruins have been unable to overcome losing Gage Jump and Thatcher Hurd, and they've also had some injuries this year. But no matter what, zero reason why UCLA should be as bad as it is. Really bad timing to have a bad year, IMO.
Aaron
12:48
San Diego had a dominating series sweep over Gonzaga and have won 19 out of their last 21..How do you feel about them in regards to postseason?
Aaron Fitt
12:48
That was an absolutely enormous weekend for the Toreros -- Gonzaga had been playing lights-out and had been in first place, so to sweep those guys was pretty loud. I think San Diego is now a rock-solid at-large team with a top-30 RPI and a two-game lead in the WCC. Barring a collapse, they're in.
Aaron Fitt
12:49
OK gang, that's all for me today -- great chat this week, thanks for all the excellent questions. See you next week!
Joe
12:50
With State’s remaining schedule vs Alabama, at Arkansas, vs Missouri and assuming we go at least 5-4 in that stretch, is that enough by itself to host?
Kendall Rogers
12:50
I don't want to cause a frenzy, but I really like State's pathway to hosting right now. Would I pick them as a host TODAY? Maybe not -- but I am betting on the Bulldogs being there on Selection Monday. I can't believe it!
Andrew
12:53
This may be a bit of a bizarre hypothetical, but one that I’m interested in. Let’s assume Louisiana holds on to win the SBC regular season. If they go 0-2 in the tournament, and finish with an RPI say in the mid 40s, could the SBC regular season champ miss the NCAA tournament?
Kendall Rogers
12:53
If Louisiana wins the SBC, it will be in the tournament for sure. Zero doubt. BTW, while the RPI is not favorable for Louisiana, it's worth mentioning that the DSR rankings have the Ragin' Cajuns at 20 -- which to me, is clearly a more accurate depiction of this team at the moment.
Zach K
12:55
Where do we see Kansas right now in playoff picture? Won 10//
Kendall Rogers
12:55
Moving on up. Solid league record (12-9) to go with being 9-1 in its last 10 and winners of six-straight games. I'm still not in love with the RPI 64 -- that is troublesome, but keep winning games and KU will be bubble in.
PatsHorns
12:57
Despite their recent skid, DBU has bounced back with a couple quality wins the past two weeks. Although their remaining schedule is very below average in terms of RPI what more do they need to do in order to lock up a spot in the NCAA tournament, and is there any scenario left in which they end up hosting?
Kendall Rogers
12:57
Pats -- if DBU can find a way to win the Conference USA regular season title while maintaining the RPI, I think it would have a great shot given the non-conference resume. That doesn't mean they should be 'ranked' right now, but at least provides the pathway to hosting provided X, Y, Z occur.
Birdman
1:06
Thank you all for the continual outstanding coverage of college baseball ! Louisville has been up and down a bit this year and currently sits 10-11 in ACC play after a brutal conference schedule . 3 series left with upcoming games at BC , UNC , home against Notre Dame . If they are able to possibly finish at 16-14 or maybe 17-13 in conference play , would that enhance their possibility for an at large bid ? I know that also have additional RPI chances against Vanderbilt and Indiana . Certainly missed an opportunity against Clemson this weekend , as they should have won 2 of those games at least .
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