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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
ugh, pull up a chair dude
Jeff
12:53
Thank you for taking the time and effort to put together such a thorough prospect package!!
Anthony
12:54
Not a top 100 question, but can Andrew Vaughn go 70 hit, 55 game power?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
Definitely possible, probably more 60 hit with good plate discipline, which may end up playing how you think a 70 hit tool would
LudeBurger
12:55
I love you all (you too, Sean and Meg!) for this list. I hate you all for making my day completely unproductive.
Mike
12:55
How could you losers not include any Red Sox!!11!

Kidding aside, great write up on  Boston a few weeks back. Who in the lower minors could sneak into the top 50 with a strong 2019? Thanks for all the great work.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
Triston Casas may have the best chance, but not sure he can get all the way to top 50 unless he goes insane, since he's probably just a 1B
Random
12:55
When you say sent it to teams do you mean you sent your list to every MLB team?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
no
Ron
12:56
What happened with Seuly Matias to knock him out since the last ranking?
Walter Sobchak
12:56
Do you believe Kyler Murray is making the right choice?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
on Seuly: just scared of the K's
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
It sounds like there's a non-zero chance he goes #1 overall and the betting line is 9th or 10th as the over/under. That combined with lesser concussions at QB and I'm thinking yes.
Jay
12:56
Did Ryan Weathers just miss? As a 45+ or something?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
Yes, was 45+ on draft list, just like Singer
Nancy Yost
12:57
Why was my prospect rated lower then the other guy I like less?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
Being angry is just part of life on the internet and we're clearly mad at you
faffri
12:58
Do you ever get comments from actual players on the list about the list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
No and they shouldn't worry about it. Even the guys we put 40s on we think are super talented and have a chance to be big leaguers. Pro baseball is super hard.
Mac
12:59
Theoretically, you would think that the average grade in the bar graphs under the players should be the overall grade for the player. However, it seems as if this approach gives a lower FV than most of your grades. Should higher FVs in the chart be given larger weights than bust and 40/45 to account for this? Of course this a very unscientific analysis of the data given, but I'm just curious on the apparent discrepancy.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
We made a weighted WAR figure to make sure our percentage odds made logical sense with our rankings. Through about the top 20 it almost perfectly agrees with our rankings, then beyond that it starts to get really hard to perfectly capture every part of every player and have an algorithm agree with everything. Like a guy in rookie ball has bonkers tools so there's a high chance of an 70+ outcome. But is it higher than Nick Senzel with above average to plus tools in Triple-A? Probably not. What about a guy with above avergae tools in Double-A? All the various ways to break it down get more difficult the lower down you go, but it's pretty clear on the top 20-25 or so.
JP
1:01
What is it about Dustin May that you like better than someone like Casey Mize or Chris Paddack? Projection?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
Vs Paddack: no injury history, better breaking ball
Vs Mize: no injury history, proximity (though that gap may close quickly)
They're all close though, obviously.
Jen
1:01
If you had to scrap one pitch from Whitley's arsenal, which would you scrap?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
Please don't make me (the cutter I guess)
HK
1:02
Say you know that player A will produce 20 WAR in his team controlled years and 35 WAR in his career, and B will 15 and 40 respectively, then how do rank them? What if it's 20/30 and 15/45?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
I've posited this to scouts and execs forever as the Aramis Ramirez vs. Ben Grieve question. Do you want to be right about the player (but he hits his potential after his first 6 years) or do you want the most bang for the buck (Grieve went nuts in years 0-3 when he made the minimum)
1:03
There isn't a "right" answer, but scouts pick Aramis and execs pick Grieve, almost every time
Annoying Chat Person
1:03
The idea for the probable FV distribution graphs was to get us to stop asking you about outcome likelihoods, wasn't it? Well played, McDongenhagen. Well played...
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:03
Haha it was to convey information that we were conveying...which could also be to get you people to shut up
1:04
or my friends that text me everyday about odds that Hunter Greene becomes an ace for theri dynasty league trades
Jay
1:04
Odds Hans Crouse is a starter long term?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:04
For me, way less than 50%, maybe 20%?
PM
1:04
Any plans to add the potential outcome ranges to a sortable chart?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:04
Down the road, yes
YO
1:04
Did Tony Gonsolin/Jeter Downs come close to the Top 130?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:04
Both were in the conversation
Downs was a 45+ on the Reds list
el Guapo
1:05
How much does swing and miss in Tatis' game impact his placement relative to Franco or is that not really a consideration?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:05
it was ultimately the thing that did it
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