JotCast | Top 100 Prospects Chat with Eric and Kiley

Top 100 Prospects Chat with Eric and Kiley

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Eric A Longenhagen

12:21

No, really no developmental progress. Saw him in the fall and was the same as he has been since being drafted from a polish standpoint.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:21

Last week Kiley asked where on the list we'd put a prospect who was with absolutely certainty going to become Kevin Pillar. What's become of that question? Will we get an article on it, or at least your thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel

12:22

Not saying that's what Pache is, since there's obviously bust risk due to the offense, but Pache was the target for that thought experiment. Now that you can see how we grade his tools, you can probably see what I was getting at.

He Hate Me

12:23

Some have speculated that BOS has targeted college arms in the draft upper-middle rounds of the draft — guys that don’t have sky-high ceilings but have relatively quick paths to being to big-league-bullpen-ready — to have them available as near-future July 31st trade chips. Two guys from the 2016 draft, Shaun Anderson and Stephen Nogosek, fit this profile and yielded Eduardo Núñez and Addison Reed, respectively, in July 2017. Is this really a thing? Do other teams consider this during their drafts? Do 2017 draft picks Jake Thompson and Zach Schellinger (or even Kutter Crawford, Dominic LoBrutto, Hunter Haworth) fit that profile?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:23

I think, yes, teams will alter their draft strategy to serve the big league club's place on the competitive spectrum. Cubs have done this, too.

SALLY fan

12:23

No Ryan Vilade, even on the honorable mentions? Younger, better defensive value, more productive, and better bat speed than Lutz. What's missing from him right now?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

High 45 FV that we discussed for the top 100 and both like. Probably ends up in tomorrow's article of sub-50 FV guys we think go up in value next year.

Dan

12:24

Out of Arias, Rosario, Barley, Ornelas and Almanzar, who is the most likely to be a top 100 prospect next year?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:24

Arias, but I like all of those guys.

12:24

Kyle Lewis didn't even get a mention. Is this all injury-related? How much hope does he still have?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:26

Certainly it's injury-related. Dr. Martin didn't exactly instill confidence when she wouldn't commit to all three of Lewis, Carlson and White being ready for ST in a press conference last week. How many times did Lewis start up and shut down last year, four? Five?

Vic

12:26

Being that M Andujar raised his FV from 45 in 60 in one year, is there a remote possibility that Shed Long could see a +10 jump in his FV with a strong 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:27

Part of the reason we shoved Andujar is because we think he's making substantive launch angle changes. Shed already has a swing that produces loft and has less room for growth in that specific area. I do think Shed will be top 100 next year, though. Just maybe not a 60.

Ben

12:27

What's keeping Chance Adams from being a top 100 prospect?

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

Lots of Chance Adams questions from Yankees fans. I feel like it's important to look at this in terms of expectations. Adams was taken in the 5th round with almost no expectations, immediately took to a starting role and moved quickly, turning himself into a prospect. We have heard that his stuff ticked down a bit and is now more solid average than swing and miss. That means for a pick with almost zero expected value, NYY got a 23-year-old MLB inventory arm that will probably be a back-end guy. That's really good! Be happy!

Eric A Longenhagen

12:31

Also, here's a full in-person Adams report from the summer. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-61/

screwball

12:31

Is Honeywell's screwball actually a changeup? this would make me very sad

Eric A Longenhagen

12:31

Changeup and screwball butwe didn't want a screwball column on our spreadsheet which populates the grids you seen on the list just for Honey, so it says splitter.

12:31

Corey Ray was placed over Lutz on the Brewers top 10, but then Lutz made the top-100 and Ray was just a mention. Quick change of heart I guess?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:32

This is just a function of me doing those ealry lists on my own and then adding Kiley's info/sourced opinions, etc. It made more sense to make some small tweaks than to just stubbornly ignore this new info we had.

Kiley McDaniel

12:33

And there's also been some questions about why was a guy ranked here in a list a year ago and is here now. We're always gathering new info and calibrating the FV system for how many guys should be 50 or 55 and now there's a new person with new information to mix in. So it isn't some vendetta against your team or some guy got worse in the 2 months when he wasn't playing. This won't be quite as jarring going forward.

KyleTucker watcher

12:33

Pleasantly surprised to see how bullish you were on KTuck, much more than other lists. Is the AZFL showing nothing too read deep into?

Trey

12:34

Surprised that Keibert Ruiz isn't in the Top 100. What was the reason why? How close were other Dodger prospects like Yusniel Diaz, DJ Peters, Mitch White and Jeren Kendall to making the list?

Kiley McDaniel

12:35

Always been a big Tucker fan, easy plus raw and plus bat control with good enough pitch selection. In 2017 he essentially just made the adjustment many players around baseball have been making to tap into their power more in games with more loft in his swing and he was athletic enough to do this and also hit the ball with more authority without swinging and missing much more.

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:35

Obligatory "Otani is not a prospect" complaint

Eric A Longenhagen

12:36

We had Keibert on the Honorable Mentions section. We think he's a 50 and that you can slide him anywhere in the 50 FV tier if you argue for him the right way (again, please read the intro to the list, folks) which in Keibert's case means heavily weighing his minor league framing metrics. Diaz I think is a flat 50. White's velo was down in the fall, Kendall and Peters are 45s with swing and miss issues. Kendall's are mechanical (and more fixable) while I thin kPeters' are more approach-based.

12:36

Moniak completely off the list, no mention. Was his year truly that bad?

Kiley McDaniel

12:37

We discussed this, but Ohtani is an unknown entity with no MLB experience and will be treated like an Acuna type by his club--we know he has tools and performance but we don't know exactly how good he'll be and he's had enough injury issues to make his short-term future a little murky. Very different than say a Jose Abreu type who wouldn't be on this list.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:37

He's a 45 that I'm buying to bounce back next year. Just on this year's reports he projects to something like what Manny Margot did in the big leagues last year which, when you back out some FV due to risk/proximity, made him a 45. We discussed him.

^Mickey Mo

Jay

12:38

The hype for this chat is so real rn

ATCQ

12:38

Okay, so I'm clearly having some trouble with "present" scouting grades. How can it be that near-ready, top-20 prospects such as Gleyber, Tucker, Bichette, Vlad Jr, Tatis Jr, Eloy all have a "present hit tool" of 30-40? Isn't the whole point of these guys that they can hit MLB pitching in an above-average fashion?

Kiley McDaniel

12:39

Nope! If we and their teams were sure that they would do that, then they'd probably be up now. The idea for many of those guys is that they will have 50 present hit/power maybe at the end of the year but very few players can jump from High-A to MLB and not miss a beat.

Anthony

12:39

Do you see Wander Javier being a realistic threat to be in this range midseason? I assume he's a 45 right now?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:39

Yes to both

Anthony

12:39

Do you two prefer McKay on the mound or at first?

Kiley McDaniel

12:40

This will be covered in a feature of prospect week. I have him top 100 at both and prefer the bat, whereas Eric prefers him on the mound

Eric A Longenhagen

12:40

In short
Eric: as a pitcher
Kiley: at 1B
But we both think TB is going to try to do both and will at least be able to figure out which one is best at some point.

Jay

12:41

Yu-Cheng Chang made your list but it's kind of a mixed bag in terms of where (and if) he shows up on prospects lists around the industry. I'm not asking you to talk about other outlets lists but rather what you think it is about his profile that might cause this variance.

Kiley McDaniel

12:43

He's a unique guy in that he's power over hit and an infielder but not a no-doubt SS. Never been a big pedigree guy or have huge tools but has figured out how to get the most out of his tools. Look at HOU and CHC and tell me a .250/20 homer shortstop/every other position guy doesn't post 2-3 wins and be an important piece there. We were definitely on the lookout for future Jose Ramirez types since we feel that the prospect game should be better at finding those guys

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