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Top 100 Prospects Chat with Eric and Kiley
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konoldo
12:43
What are some differences to how you two approach prospect evaluation?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
We haven't tried to drill down deep into philosophical differences. I'm thirsty for tools and projection while Kiley prefers closer guys who have more stable profiles, but that allows us to balance out in a way that we both liked as we went through the list. And teams value guys differently depending on what they're trying to do (rebuild, retool, compete right now, etc)
Dan
12:43
No Jake Rogers?  Elite defensive catching isn't enough to warrant a mention?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
He was heavily considered and will be on this week's 40s and 45s we're buying for next year
Barry Badrinath
12:44
Are you guys sitting next to each other doing the chat, using the same computer, or in completely different parts of the country?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
He's in Tempe, AZ and I'm in Orlando, FL trying to and mostly letting each other take turns in a clean fashion lol
Paul
12:44
Can we get a sneak of the 2019 list? How high will Toglia, Langeliers, and Wallner be?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
Coming monday and all three of those are in the top 30 right now
Connor
12:44
Arm grade is given on just sheer strength, correct? (re: Andujar)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Yes
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
Agents are so excited to see where we rank their 2019 clients ahem advisees that no one is talking about right now
ryan
12:45
Were any Mariners prospects close to making the list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I have their team list basically done and Carlson, White and Lewis are all 45s
Wills
12:45
Soroka command and control was viewed by many last season as already above average with an ability to possibly end up as plus plus when a is said and done. What are you guys seeing differently that makes you bearish on this tool?
Anthony
12:46
It's rare to see A-ball prospects who project for a 7 glove at third. Could Ke'Bryan Hayes realistically play an above-average SS, and would either of you consider pushing him up the defensive spectrum?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
Never thought I'd be accused of being low on Soroka but here's an exercise for you. Who has 70 command in the big leagues right now. How many of them could you have predicted when they were in the minor leagues? Does it seem a little silly to *expect* a guy to have 70 command and then he's a letdown when it's just a 60?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
For Anthony: This is a great question that I think is even more valid consider what batted ball data allows you to do with your infield. Like what StL and Tampa seem to do at SS. Hayes is a candidate for that kind of thing but some would wonder why the hell you'd move a 7 glove, the same as they did with Bellinger and CF last year.
Keith
12:47
This off-season Eric alluded to Josh Lowe's extreme upside (and risk), and in the past has mentioned his high defensive ceiling as well. How close was he to making the list? And what kind of 80th/90th percentile upside do you think he has offensively? Question for either of you. Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
Probably 5 hit, 6+ power is the upside. Still has a ways to go
TopJimmy
12:48
Thank you for providing excellent prospect info! I have done quite well with my past prospect selections (thanks to FG) by focusing on high FV guys with a great hit grade/tool/pitch recognition skills and cross referencing those guys on KATOH and my own analysis. Any drawbacks to this approach? Any way to improve? Thank you, again, for excellent info.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
This is a smart approach, use the FV tiers, if it's fantasy then throw away the defense and adjust the FV to your uses, probably adjust further for closer to big leagues, maybe once more for SB vs. speed grade and HR vs. 2B/3B power. Do a stats sanity check via KATOH. Maybe have some specific types (like contact-oriented) that you think will play more quickly when called up.
Nate
12:49
Why so few 55 FV prospects compared to last years?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Just random variance
CapnZippers
12:49
Not one Mets prospect in the top-100 or honorable mentions.. Is it really that bleak in the Mets farm right now? It sounded like Gimenez, Pederson, Dunn and Nido were all at least decent guys?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
Not sure I'd say bleak. We discussed all 4 of those for the 100 and the Mets have lots of young players that recently lost eligibility. I think my message in this chat is don't be angry or depressed.  We're talking about baseball, people.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Yeah, I'm on Gimenez and Peterson as 50s
UncleWeez
12:51
What makes you so confident that Jose Siri's tools can make up for his near total inability to take a walk? As a Reds fan, I love the tools, but I'm haunted by the ghost of Yorman Rodriguez
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
There are multiple Yorman/Siri comps in the chat. We buy Siri's bat control (which we think is insane) allowing the horrendous approach to work, but we agree he's a high variance prospect with some red flags.
Mike
12:52
Was Ronny Mauricio considered for the list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
Another 45 I'm buying for next year's list
Ricky Bobby
12:52
I wanna go fast!
Zihuatanejo
12:52
Of the Dodgers' catcher prospects, what put Will Smith ahead of Keibert Ruiz for you guys?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
Okay!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
We've both liked Will Smith for awhile and he's the rare catcher where he's above average at everything. He's steadily improved and his weakness was lifting the ball which he's really doing now. Like Keibert too and some think he's an elite framer which could be important or maybe we get robo umps and it doesn't matter, but the other tools don't really match up with the fresh prince
AT
12:54
Where would Roman Quinn fit on the list of top x players?   Just curious - he seems to have fallen off the list of prospects everywhere.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Really love Q and think he has 50 FV tools. But he can't stay healthy. We seem to have this discussion every year.
Doug
12:54
You guys seem pretty down on the current crop of pitchers. Seemed like everyone outside of Whitley/Ohtani are projected as mid-rotation pieces.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
This isn't necessarily being down on all pitchers, since you can see the pitch grades. My issue, at least, is that these lists have been proven to always have too many pitchers at the top of the lists and too many at the very top. There's inherently more risk and so we're trying to reflect that reality, since clubs do this too. Also, there were lots of hitters we liked.
BK
12:56
Also agreed with Lawgiver, you guys supply great content and we're definitely not complaining
Neal
12:56
Is command measured by command of the FB or command of the entire arsenal?
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