Top 50 Free Agents chat with Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald
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Relievers
1:13
For players who didn't make the list, should we assume you'd project them for deals less than $12m / 1 yr (i.e., your #50 contract)? I'm thinking of guys like Gregory Soto, Kevin Ginkel, Jason Adam, etc.
Steve Adams
1:14
Generally, yeah, but there are some guys that we all think could've been on the list but who didn't get the consensus. I think there's a chance someone gives Alec Bohm two years, for instance. (I sure wouldn't do it, but just saying)
Darragh McDonald
1:15
Yeah, there are a handful guys where we debated something like 2/20 but ended up at 1/10, so just off the list. Soto and Ginkel were definitely in that bucket.
Steve Adams
1:15
Ginkel's another guy who could get a decent two-year deal; quietly solid track record, decent rate stats.

And when we're talking $10-12MM+, there aren't many free agents I'd be shocked to see bring that home
Darragh McDonald
1:15
Anthony is working on a post now about this for Front Office subscribers, highlighting some guys who just missed. Keep an eye out for that this week.
Steve Adams
1:16
If Anthony were able to join today, I imagine he'd be singing Sean Newcomb's praises.
Buster
1:16
I really liked the predictions on Imanaga to the Giants. Makes a ton of sense. Should I the Giants go hard after Itoh and Taira too? Go all in.
Steve Adams
1:17
Yeah Imanaga's homer issues mean he basically has to go to a team with a big park. (Well, I suppose he doesn't HAVE to; the Reds keep signing Emilio Pagan to pitch in their bandbox and he's the most homer-prone reliever in MLB)
Either Itoh or Taira works as a fit in San Francisco... but that's true of pretty much every starting pitcher on the list. That team needs so much pitching help.
Darragh McDonald
1:18
If the Giants are trying to win in the short term, then sure. It makes sense to spend on pitching. They should act like a big market team now that they have the whole Bay Area as their territory.
Tyrone Taylor
1:18
Have I earned a multi-year guaranteed deal? Is 2/14 out of the question?
Steve Adams
1:19
We kicked around two for Taylor, but he's typically pretty limited in his role. I wouldn't be stunned or anything, but there aren't too many two-year deals for part-time CFs on the short side of the platoon -- particularly those who tend to be glove-first guys
Darragh McDonald
1:19
Not out of the question but I would bet against it. Tyrone feels a bit like another Taylor: Michael A. Taylor.
Steve Adams
1:19
Bader took one year a couple times and was always more of a regular than Taylor
Yup -- MAT is a good shout there.
Darragh McDonald
1:21
MAT was a good defender and occasionally flashed some offense. He still never really got paid. 1/4 was his best free agent deal. He did get a 2/9 extension, I guess.
Bauers
1:21
I know yall predict I'm accepting the QO, but suppose another team wants to keep that from happening. How much would another team have to offer to make it not worth taking the QO? I'm thinking 2/40 or 3/60 would be hard to get that much if I regress much at all in 2027 and retest the market. What are the odds a team would be willing to pay that?
Todd S
1:21
Where are you guys on Bauers if he doesn't accept the QO?
Steve Adams
1:21
Bauers to the moon
I love the dude and think he's getting 50MM+ over three years, even with the QO. But that's me personally and the rest of the group -- Tim Dierkes included -- leans toward him accepting.
Darragh McDonald
1:22
Yeah, if he gets something close to 20MM annually on a multi-year deal, then he should probably take it. Slightly lesser salary but it's worth it for the extra long-term security.
1:23
A bit skeptical he gets there though. We also talked about Bauers a lot on this week's podcast. Anthony mentioned that Bauers is currently a lot like Jurickson Profar from a few years ago. Talented guy, bounced around without success, huge breakout in early 30s. Profar got 3/42 with no QO attached.
Steve Adams
1:23
We talked about this on the podcast this morning, too. I think he can make more, but I also understand if, from a purely human perspective, he says to himself: "Hell, I was going to retire not long ago, and now they're offering $23MM+ to keep me on a team that just won the World Series. Sign me the F up and bring me a rally cig."
MoTork City
1:24
Boy, the projections of Jazz and Arraez to the Tigers are terrible. We need some help offensively, but those guys aren’t it.
Darragh McDonald
1:25
Well, the market is rough if you're looking for offense. There aren't many bats I would consider a better investment than Jazz this winter. Detroit has an opening at second base and lacks a base-stealing element Jazz could provide.
1:26
We also predicted a short-term, opt-out deal for Jazz, which is something the Tigers love.
Steve Adams
1:26
I just don't think the infielders they have -- McGonigle aside, obviously -- are especially good. And it's more than a little puzzling to me that they didn't call Max Anderson up late in the season. That doesn't make it any kind of lock that they don't believe in him or want to trade him, of course, but there was no reason not to do so and they still just kept him in Toledo.

Scott Harris has also spoken openly, on multiple occasions, about improving his club's contact skills, which makes me like the Arraez fit. But all our team picks are is just drawing up one plausible scenario that kind of works with some semblance of cohesion (with respect to our individual picks elsewhere). If the Tigers say screw that and go sign Seiya Suzuki instead, good on them. It'd be a better move. But Harris seems pretty averse to longer-term FA deals and I think the best bats are all getting four to five years.
1:27
Brandon Lowe could be a good compromise there, too. Or they could go the trade route. I'm not saying I think there's like an 80% chance of Arraez going there or anything, just as Darragh and Anthony aren't doing that with Jazz.
Darragh McDonald
1:28
It's also worth emphasizing that we have very little confidence in any of our team picks.
We do our best to have those make sense but still only get maybe 10 out of 50 right.
Joe Fox
1:28
I’m thinking someone is giving Skubal 4yrs $200m, $50 each year, no deferrals, opt out after each year. And he will take it
Steve Adams
1:29
We picked him to get 47 per year over nine, so I think we just view him differently, haha. I do wonder what the annual number would have to be in order to convince him to go four years with opt-outs. I suspect it is a LOT higher than 50.
Upwards of $65MM per?
70?
Darragh McDonald
1:29
It's always possible a guy pivots to short term, like Bichette and Tucker did last winter. But I think it would take more than 50MM per year for Skubal to do that. Tucker got 60MM per year.
Wire Fan
1:30
Is Sao's contract going to be a reflection of how sure a club believes he will stick at 3rd?
Steve Adams
1:32
It's more a reflection that everyone's flying really blind when it comes to NPB superstars being posted. I wouldn't bat an eye if someone gave Sato 200MM, nor would I be surprised if the market spat on him and gave him $40MM.

I try every year to talk to some MLB scouts who focus on Japan and South Korea to inform some of our predictions from those markets. I got a few opinions on this year's group, and there are really positive marks for his bat speed, exit velo, etc. -- but the defensive home is a question for sure.

I think there's probably a chance we came in light there, and I'd be lying if I said we weren't a bit gunshy after predicting nearly $200MM for Murakami last year only to see the market say, "Nah, no thanks."
Darragh McDonald
1:33
Yeah, some scouts say it's best for him to stick at third and be developed there. Others said he should just be moved to right field right away. All 30 teams will probably have different opinions about that.
Fish Fan
1:34
Who are the Marlins looking to get, i didnt see any in the predictions? Another offseason of not spending money and searching the bottom of the barrel?
Marlins?
1:34
Why did no one pick Marlins to land any of the top 50 free agents?
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