JotCast | Top 50 Free Agents chat with Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald

Top 50 Free Agents chat with Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald

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Steve Adams

1:35

Since Bendix took over they haven't spent more than $13MM on a free agent. Their history of spending prior to him was pretty sparse, too. I think they could credibly be picked to sign any of the short-term starters or two-year relievers on the back of the list, but Bendix has operated near exclusively on the trade front for prominent additions to this point.

I don't think any of us by design omitted the Marlins. And while we acknowledge that team picks are a low-confidence crapshoot, we're all still TRYING to be correct, which makes it tough to put Miami on a meaningful contract. I don't know for a fact but assume I also didn't pick any Guardians. Same line of thinking.

Darragh McDonald

1:36

The Marlins have almost nothing on the books and theoretically could do all kinds of stuff but they have been very, very conservative in recent offseasons, as Steve laid out there. I'm in "I'll believe it when I see it" territory on them spending.

Steve Adams

1:37

Yeah -- I'd love to see them splash some cash around, it just hasn't been in Bendix's wheelhouse and the biggest amount Bruce Sherman has put down on free agents since he bought the team are:

Avisail Garcia: $53MM
Jorge Soler: $36MM
Pete Fairbanks: $13MM

Garcia and Fairbanks really burned them. (Especially the former)

Brian

1:37

Even after getting QOs, you believe Morejon and Bednar will both decline and still get $60-$80MM?

Steve Adams

1:37

Yup

1:38

Morejon is an absolute monster. Bednar is one of the most consistently excellent relief arms. He had one awful year, but Darragh made a good point to help me get up to that level with the prediction ... that's also true of guys like Hader and Edwin Diaz. Tanner Scott got $72MM with a fraction of that track record. And, this year's playoffs put powerhouse bullpens on full display in this silly little copycat game we all love

Darragh McDonald

1:39

Steve Adams

1:39

Contract Tracker plug from Darragh! Hell yeah. Haha

Darragh McDonald

1:39

Courtesy of our wonderful Contract Tracker, lots of precedent for really good relievers rejecting a QO and still getting the bag.

Craig

1:39

I thought the discussion on Devers surplus value during the podcast was interesting. He would be the clear #2 FA this year with weak bats, does that change the current contract valuation for teams?

Steve Adams

1:40

I don't really think so. We've seen in the past that teams in today's very, very analytical environment don't often overspend as a reaction to a thin market.

1:41

We tried to course correct for a thin class of bats a few years ago when we gave Cody Bellinger the $200MM+ bag, and teams basically just said, "Nope. If we think guys stink, we're not going to overpay the few who are good, we'll just trade for alternatives or stick in house"

I think in today's game, teams are very, very model- and algorithm-oriented when it comes to player valuation. A lack of good bats isn't going to get Randy Arozarena an extra $40MM the way it might have 15 years ago.

Darragh McDonald

1:42

As Anthony laid out on the podcast, if Devers is considered roughly as good as Alonso or even better, then the remaining money isn't too bad. Off the top of my head, I think it's about 210MM left to be paid out? And Alonso's deal with the O's was 150-160ish.

1:43

As Steve said, teams probably won't move off their value of Devers just because of the market conditions but it is true that he would be the clear #2 free agent if he were out there. In another year, they might not be too motivated to make a trade because free agency has similar alternatives. But that's not true right now, which might increase the chances of a deal coming together.

Average MLBTR Reader

1:43

What happened to Tim? He usually participates in the prediction article and chat. He even wiped himself clean last night by writing, "This will make it easy to mock any MLBTR writer who falls below the Mendoza Line." Is he scared to go up against us readers this year?

Oh BTW, I really enjoyed it. Thank you!

Steve Adams

1:44

Tim's just focusing more on the business side of things right now and didn't fully participate in the Top 50 deliberations and writing this year. He jumped into a few of our discussions when we were making our rankings and predictions, and we texted him as a tiebreaker on more than a few guys when were all at an impasse. Hopefully he jumps back into the ring in future Top 50 editions, but he's got a lot of balls in the air right now -- to say nothing of like 74 children

1:45

(It's four kids, haha, but I have two and cannot fathom how he manages four, so I opted for hyperbole)

Cool Mama Bell

1:45

How difficult was this list to project given the CBA uncertainty?

Steve Adams

1:46

We can't know how it'll play out, and the last time there was a lockout, things wound up looking pretty normal, so we just treated it like a normal offseason. You play the hand you're dealt.

Probably helps that we -- certainly I, anyway -- have long been operating under the assumption that games won't be missed. I still think that.

Darragh McDonald

1:47

Broadly, we didn't give it too much consideration. The last time a CBA was expiring in 2021-22, players still got paid roughly around expectations in most cases. There were some specific guys where it came up. On Bauers, for instance, I think the lockout maybe makes it slightly more likely he just takes the QO.

Nick

1:47

Bubic and his agent have to look at Pittsburgh, they have a track record in that park and LHSP (JA Happ, Jose Quintana, Francisco Liriano, Tyler Anderson). Even if only a 1 year prove it deal to increase value and re-group in the market a year later.

Steve Adams

1:48

I think Bubic needs to go somewhere that has a more clear runway for him to keep a rotation spot. Great park for him in Pittsburgh, but a starter looking to make good and show he's healthy probably doesn't want to sign with a team that already has Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler locked into spots.

Darragh McDonald

1:48

Bubic in Pittsburgh makes sense, sure. I put him on the Rays because they also tend to do a good job of helping guys hit their ceilings.

Royal

1:49

I know he wasn't on the Top 50, but two questions regarding Mad Max:

Was Scherzer close to cracking the top 50?
Was he omitted because there is a chance he doesn't continue and what odds do you give him pitching next year?

Steve Adams

1:50

No, we didn't really consider him. He's in his 40s. He signed for a year and $3MM last winter, and had another injury-plagued, generally poor showing.

I love Mad Max. Hope he pitches forever. But I don't think he has a place on a Top 50 list that's ranked by our perception of the players' earning power.

Angels and KSE

1:50

Mo just said that they're going to be engaged on the 6-year free agent market. What's your thoughts on that?

1:50

I understand, that the Angels recent history, especially under Perry suggests the Angels haven’t make a big splash. But with new ownership coming in, don’t any of you think, they will make a big splash? To show Angels fans things will be different.

Jack Lazorko

1:50

Do you think the Angels will be more active in free agency after the lockout ends since they will be under new ownership with deep pockets?

Steve Adams

1:51

Angels fans are awash with hopium. You love to see it! (That is not at all intended to be condescending btw -- genuinely happy for their fans)

Darragh McDonald

1:52

It's certainly possible they just look to spend their way to greatness. Kroenke certainly has the money for it. But I think making the Angels good is a multi-year project. They have to improve the scouting, player development, analytics, etc. That's hard to do overnight. I think they will probably rebuild and try to be good by, say, 2030 or something. But who knows?

Steve Adams

1:53

I think they kind of have to be involved on the back end to some extent, as they just have so many holes to fill. But I'm not expecting them to play for top-end guys. Maybe Kroenke's just going to come in and ratchet payroll up to $300MM or something, but even then, doing that in one offseason seems unrealistic.

They can be involved in the six-year market -- which, to be clear, is referencing "six-year free agents" / guys who naturally hit free agency by accruing service time..... not six-year deals -- and still avoid pursuits of Skubal, Arozarena, Peralta, etc.

Ross Atkins

1:53

Given the possibility - whatever chance you give it - of a salary cap (or stronger penalties) coming into play after 2027, is it possible that teams aim for 1-year deals with free agents when possible? Using an example of Kevin Gausman, who was projected at 2/44, would a team with a payroll that could come into play just prefer to sign him to, let's say, 1/$30M or something if he's amenable and avoid the uncertainty?

Steve Adams

1:54

Some clubs might, but that really wasn't the case in the 2021-22 offseason. I think there's a real chance Gausman takes one year and just goes back to Toronto since he loves it there, but I think if he wants two years, he probably has the track record and talent to get there.

Luis Arraez

1:54

Me. Twins. Reunion. Good?

Steve Adams

1:54

Sure. Sign Arraez to play 2B -- which he seems intent on -- and slide Kody Clemens over to first base. I tend to think they'll aim for a more power-oriented bat though. They need the pop, and their lineup had one of the lower walk rates in the game, too.

David

1:55

You really think Stearns will go after Skubal at 400MM+?

Steve Adams

1:55

I don't. But I think Steve Cohen might.

Darragh McDonald

1:56

Yeah, that's basically the thing.

Steve Adams

1:56

I doubt any GM/POBO is fired up about going $300-400MM+ on Skubal. Boras is going to be negotiating directly with a lot of owners on that one.