Top 50 Free Agents chat with Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald
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Darragh McDonald
1:56
Stearns' track record suggests he won't want to go long term but we have evidence of Boras getting deals done with Cohen directly.
1:57
If I remember correctly, when the Carlos Correa Giants deal fell through because of his ankle being made of toothpicks, Boras got Cohen on the phone while Cohen was on a beach in Hawaii.
Cohen was sipping maitais and said "sure" to 300-plus million. I forget the exact number.
Steve Adams
1:58
Believe it was 315
RCAM
1:58
The Athletic has Trevor Rogers at 4 years/$76M. That feels delusional to me. How good are you guys feeling about your 5/115?
Darragh McDonald
1:59
Let's look at the big board...

MLBTR: 5/115
Tim Britton Athletic: 4/84
Keith Law Athletic: 3/75
Ben Clemens FanGraphs: 4/104
Kiley McDaniel ESPN: 4/76
Steve Adams
1:59
Delusional in that they're too high and we're even further out of our minds? Or delusional that it's too low?

I feel generally good about Rogers getting five years. Former ROY runner-up and top-10 pick who had some miserable injury-wrecked seasons and now has rolled out a 3.16 ERA, 23.2 K%, 6.1 BB% and 41.1 GB% across his past 48 starts.

He's just pretty damn good, and he's healthy now.
2:00
Top-15 pick, whoops
Point stands, haha
Pitching next year at age 29 is a big bonus for him, too
Darragh McDonald
2:00
It appears we are the high ones. Perhaps that will look bad in hindsight but Rogers is somewhat comparable to Ranger Suarez, who got 5/130.
Jack
2:01
I know you guys didn't necessarily pick many guys to go to Milwaukee other than Bauers, but do you think the Brewers should poke around at anyone on the top 50? Who?
Darragh McDonald
2:02
When I was making my team picks, I had them on Foster Griffin for a while. They have lots of good pitching but there's some volatility in there. Injuries, workload concerns after the World Series run, etc. It makes some sense to me to add a reliable innings-eater to help them manage their young arms next year.
love 2
Steve Adams
2:03
This also came up on the podcast this morning -- plug after plug after plug! -- they just don't need to go that crazy in free agency. The pitching depth is good. They're teeming with quality young hitters and have another big wave on the horizon.

I'm never going to rag on a team for adding more rotation stability, so if they want to add a decent arm for a year or two, go for it. I also am pretty low on Garrett Mitchell, but they have so many OFs that I don't think they need to get a CF (and this year's class of them stinks anyhow).

If they want to be the team to chase Luis Robert Jr.'s upside though, by all means. They're the kind of team that can afford to take the risk. Massively ups their ceiling, and the floor is already so high that they're not really screwed if he's just hurt all year again.
trophy 1
Dustin May
2:04
Could I just run it back with the Cardinals and hop off the train early if the team still isn't in contention. Cardinals certainly have the payroll flexibility to meet your 2/30 projection.
Any similar pillow contract seekers that the Cardinals could try to maximize for one season?
Steve Adams
2:05
I gave them Kris Bubic as basically the Dustin May 2.0 deal. I just don't think Dustin May is especially good, though, so if they're chasing upside I'd rather see them go elsewhere. I was surprised he got $12.5MM last year and surprised Milwaukee gave up such a good prospect for him + Romero.
Darragh McDonald
2:05
It seems the Cardinals will probably add another May-like signing to the rotation. It could be re-upping with May. I picked Boyd in the Top 50 but there are other options. Bubic, Nick Martinez.
2:06
Bieber?
Steve Adams
2:07
If they're going to chase upside, I'd rather see them make a run at Hiromi Itoh or maybe try to rehabilitate Patrick Sandoval if they want to go on the cheaper end of things. (I liked Sandoval a lot pre-surgery ... not so much now, but I also think he'll cost under $10MM, so it's a reasonably priced dice roll)
Bieber would be interesting, yeah
Johnny 5
2:07
Are there any Japanese players who you think we might see a market collapse ala Murakami and become a value play?
Darragh McDonald
2:08
Sato and Taira were the two guys we picked for long-term deals. I could see either of them following the Murakami market collapse path. Sato has some strikeout concerns, similar to Murakami, without the same power ceiling.
2:09
Taira's track record as a starter is pretty minimal, basically just two seasons. 2023 and 2026. He was a reliever in between. Like Imai, it's possible he ends up doing a deal with a bunch of opt-outs so he has a chance to prove himself and then go back to free agency to get another deal.
Steve Adams
2:10
I generally am of the mind that Sato and Taira are going to get paid, but Hiromi Itoh seems like he's being valued as a back-end starter and might only command a year or two anyhow, so I don't mind him as a "value" buy.

MLB teams are always pretty wary of guys with lesser velocity who rely more on command and weak contact. The market didn't think much of Foster Griffin's NPB breakout, and he was pretty damn good in his return. I think Itoh gets paid more than Griffin last winter, but I don't think he's going to break the bank and can see a path to him improving his stock and making a good bit of cash on his second contract.
Me(duh)
2:11
Another offseason, more disappointment for Tigers fans. Beginning to think the problem is Ilitch, not Harris.  Very little currently on the book long term, yes?  They COULD afford that Skubal guy, in theory, right?
Steve Adams
2:11
Sure could. But they didn't make a big effort to extend him, and this would be pretty antithetical to the manner in which the Harris-led front office has operated
Guest
2:13
Do you think the Padres will re-sign Ty France? If not who would they go for to play 1st base?
Darragh McDonald
2:14
There are lots of moving pieces at first base this winter. Free agency has Ty France, Jake Bauers, Alec Bohm, a few others. Realistic trade candidates include Rafael Devers, Andrew Vaughn, Spencer Torkelson, Alec Burleson, Christian Walker, Royce Lewis.
Steve Adams
2:14
Yeah I think we all lean toward that as a possibility -- and a stronger one than most team-specific picks. He loves it there, they love him. He was considering retirement and has a new lease on his baseball life thanks to his time there.

If he ends up elsewhere, there are tons of options. Jake Bauers. Move Cronenworth to 1B and sign one of the many 2B. Trade for Alec Burleson. Trade for Torkelson.
cool 2
2:15
Ha, basically said the same thing. We need to coordinate better. My bad haha
laughing 2 cool 1
Pykkman
2:16
When are the signings going to start?
Steve Adams
2:17
We get this every year. The MLB offseason is notoriously slow. That'll be lessened this year by the pre-lockout rush, but I generally think we're still a week or more out from seeing many notable deals start to come together.

I fully expect the last few days before the CBA's expiration to be utter bedlam
Hao-Yu Lee
2:17
Tigers don't need a second baseman.  I more than proved capable of playing there this past year.  Plus I am young and my best years are in front of me.
MoTork City
2:17
I don’t think we have an opening at 2nd Base, unless you’re projecting Lee at 3rd Base.
Darragh McDonald
2:18
Lee's a decent bat but bad on defense.
Steve Adams
2:19
Yeah, I think he's a fine hitter who's not great defensively. And the Tigers can shuffle some pieces around in the infield to make it work. Agree that there might be cleaner fits in the outfield -- disagree that this front office wants to spend 3-4 years on the top bats who'll all be 32 next year.
Giants Pitching
2:19
Do you really lean towards the Giants not pursuing a top of the order starting pitcher for their #2 spot or was it just that the predictions happened to skip them there?
Steve Adams
2:21
They were pretty averse to signing long-term SP deals last winter. Their owner basically came out and said he wasn't going to do it.

They also need SO much help both in the 'pen and rotation that I think they need to spread their resources across multiple signings.

And they already have a TON of long-term deals on the books. Do they want to add another 4- or 5- or 6-year deal with a big-name free agent SP? I'm pretty skeptical of that.
Darragh McDonald
2:21
Yeah, I don't know what to make of the Giants. They were really aggressive in adding Chapman, Adames and Devers deals and then seemed to hit the brakes hard last winter.
2:22
I feel like they will only modestly invest in the club for the next few years as they wait for their teenage prospects to arrive but that's mostly just based on last winter's modest approach.
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