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Tim Dierkes
1:34
I expect him to get suspended for at least half the year and possibly all of it, and a suspension would be unpaid.  After that they'd have to release him and eat the rest of the money
Steve Adams
1:35
Yeah -- there's no real way for them to void the contract, or at least no precedent of that happening.
Cubs
1:35
Who are 5 guys you listed as signing multi-year deals who are most likely to sign a 1-year pillow
Tim Dierkes
1:36
Baez and maybe Story make sense, since they probably expected more money a year or two ago.  If some of the Castellanos predictions from other sites turn out correct, I guess he could have to do that.
We still believe Castellanos gets paid though.
Steve Adams
1:37
I'll try to make my picks without looking at Tim's...

Baez, Garcia, DeSclafani, Soler, Wood?

Any of the guys in the 40-50 range are plausible at one year, too.
Jacob
1:37
Do you think Rodon would go for the highest-paid deal possible? Or he'd prioritize security and forego a larger one-year sum?
Tim Dierkes
1:37
We debated this a lot.  I'd say if he gets offers north of 50 mil, he might take one.  I don't know if I'd offer that given the health concerns.
Steve Adams
1:39
Tim and I talked about that at length on the phone this morning. The lack of a QO really threw us, because the team who knows the most about his shoulder just said it didn't want to offer him 1/18.

So much of this depends on the player's personal risk tolerance, and there's just no way of knowing that with Rodon. It's totally plausible that Rodon just wants to max out now, and good for him if he does. We think there's more money for him by betting on himself with a big one-year deal, and that's the route we predicted -- but there's no way of knowing for certain since it's all about Rodon's personal feelings/ambitions here.
Jeff Luhnow Alert
1:39
There is no alert, but shouldn’t the Mets go all-heel and bring in Luhnow and Beltran. All other options seem mediocre at best.
Tim Dierkes
1:39
Just for the pure entertainment value, I'd very much like to see this happen.
Steve Adams
1:40
I keep joking about this. Ultimate heel turn by the Mets.
Also ... Luhnow built some real good teams, trash-can gambit or not.
RedSoxFan
1:40
I think the red sox giving a QO to Rodriguez was shocking. Do you think he is worth 18.4 mil?
Tim Dierkes
1:41
We would have been shocked if E-Rod did not get a QO.  We felt this was an easy choice for Boston.  I don't think today's GMs get too hung up on ERA if the skills are there.
Steve Adams
1:41
I think it was a no-brainer. We've said as much on the site for weeks, and I've said it in my own personal chats for months. We predicted a $70MM guarantee -- suffice it to say that $18.4MM for one year would be a steal.
Why Not
1:41
Would Verlander sign with the Angels for a two year deal for 40 million with a club option on a third year?
Tim Dierkes
1:42
I think the Astros have a chance at retaining him, possibly on a contract like that without the club option.  But his doing a showcase suggests he might go elsewhere.  I believe this is his first time in free agency.
Steve Adams
1:43
I think that's a tempting offer but the club option weighs it down. He'll want more say over his future, I would think. Angels are a viable fit for him, but I also wonder if he'll want a more definitive contender.
Joe
1:43
Team most likely to sign a big FA that nobody has as a likely target for a top FA (say, top 20)?
Tim Dierkes
1:44
I have wondered if the Orioles can possibly go much longer without adding any real MLB talent through free agency.  Could they maybe spring for Seiya Suzuki or something?
Steve Adams
1:45
I don't think the O's are spending anything this winter, haha, sorry Baltimore fans.

I could see the Guardians making a Suzuki play or maybe spending more than people would think. First year under a rebrand. They trimmed payroll to borderline embarrassing lows in 2021, and they have pretty much nothing on the 2022 books.
Dave
1:45
Ken Davidoff in the New York Post on Sunday had Conforto going to the Phillies for 6 years/140 million.  I was thinking more of along the lines of your prediction for a one year deal.  Does he know something we all don't know about Confort
Tim Dierkes
1:46
Off the season he just had, I thought Conforto might top out in the 60-something mil range.  Steve I think put a ceiling around 80.  He could have gotten 140+ with a strong season, hence our logic to take a one-year deal.  Maybe in a better hitting environment or just a change of scenery.
Steve Adams
1:47
To me that just seemed like Davidoff's way of saying he expects teams to be willing to look past the down year in 2021 and write it off as a fluke. Had Conforto had a normal Conforto season, I'd have been in that same range.

It's more aggressive than I'd be willing to predict, but that's part of the fun of this time of year. Lots of different opinions flying around.
Chaim Bloom
1:47
If Semien agrees to come to Boston, does that move Xander to 3rd and Devers to 1st?  ...any Dalbec takers?
Steve Adams
1:48
I'll defer to the man who made the Semien/Sox pick!
Tim Dierkes
1:48
Semien to the Red Sox was my pick, and I admit it is a bit out there.  I couldn't find a good spot for Semien along with my other picks.  I'd say he just plugs in at 2B, and then if they let Xander walk after '22 and need to bide some time at SS for a year or two, Semien can be adequate there.  If Xander stays and Devers goes to DH after JDM leaves, maybe Semien can play 3B.
DM KC GM
1:49
Tim if you like Garcia to KC wouldn't Suzuki make even more sense considering he is 3 years younger and by most reports a plus defensive player. He would fit their longer window
Tim Dierkes
1:49
Yes, I like Suzuki more than Avisail.  But we also think Suzuki comes with a higher price tag, plus there's less certainty since Avisail has succeeded at the MLB level already.
Jon Gotti
1:50
Yankees should sign Semien over the other top SS, who says no?
Steve Adams
1:50
Yeah, there's a decent chance they're the same type of player, and some teams probably want the more proven commodity. Some will want the youth/upside.
Tim Dierkes
1:50
I'd expect the Yankees to be involved on Semien.  He seems maybe less likely than the others to stick for a while at SS though.
Steve Adams
1:51
Any of the top five shortstops work for the Yankees. It's just about the price they're willing to pay. And if he has to move to another position at some point, the Yankees do have a pair of high-end SS prospects behind him.
(Him being Semien)
Jay's fan
1:51
I noticed that when Trevor story was on your list even in the suitors the blue jays weren't even mentioned, yet with the jays trying hard to get him at last year's deadline and how good a fit he would be I think that if and when simien leaves he makes perfect sense abd is a very good fit to ply 2nd beside bo .
Tim Dierkes
1:52
I don't think that's crazy.  Story has never played anything other than SS, though, and there's a difference between signing to play a position for five years and being forced to do it after a trade for two months.
Steve Adams
1:52
Story/Jays makes some sense to me, but since we've got Story and Semien signing reasonably comparable contracts, it's hard to see why they wouldn't just keep Semien at that point.
Paul
1:52
Good afternoon gentlemen, What do you think the chances of the Seager brothers signing with the same team? Possibly the Yankees?
Tim Dierkes
1:52
As far as a team that could accommodate both Seager Bros, I like the Phillies.
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