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Anthony Franco
9:14
What eventually moved me off any huge outside acquisition was the payroll being at franchise heights and an expectation they'll want to leave some room for a run at a Fried extension this winter. The front office has been really aggressive about keeping the existing core around forever
Tim Dierkes
9:14
I also think we are not saying they're punting on the offseason.  Alex Anthopolous in his five offseasons has done the Ozuna re-signing, the Will Smith signing, and otherwise stuck to big one-year deals and a few minor two-year deals.
Steve Adams
9:14
The Braves' first move will push them into luxury tax territory. If that's signing Swanson at a $22MM AAV, they're paying a 20% tax on somewhere around $18MM of that $22MM. The next signing after that would push them into the second tier of luxury penalization, bumping the tax rate to 32%.

I just don't think many Braves fans realize where the payroll is at. Terry McGuirk said "we could be a top five payroll club" (paraphrasing), but what he didn't highlight is that they're already barreling toward that before doing practically anything this winter.
Tim Dierkes
9:14
To put them on Dansby, sure, they've done plenty of big contracts for their own guys.
Steve Adams
Tim Dierkes
9:15
deGrom or Rodon is an entirely different animal.  Could happen, but a total break with AA's precedent.
Steve Adams
9:15
To echo Tim and Anthony, sure Dansby is still plausible. Or another SS, I suppose. But their payroll situation doesn't make me excited to say they're the likeliest landing spot for any of the top guys.
Tim Dierkes
9:15
We all think some kind of LF signing is plausible as well, but we only have a few corner OFs on the list in general.
Steve Adams
9:16
And, not signing a top SS or SP does not mean they'll punt the offseason. Trades exist. There are 100ish free agents beyond the top 50 who'll sign Major League deals
Tim Dierkes
9:16
Yes, important points: the list doesn't include trades, and tons of good players outside of the list are signed and help teams.
9:17
I think it's fair to say that the four of us who made predictions are not expecting the Braves to sign the biggest FA names.  That is not certainty, and I also wouldn't read into it beyond that statement.  Doesn't mean a quiet offseason.
Steve Adams
9:17
Anthony's Fried extension point is a good one, too. You extend Fried, you're into luxury territory before you make a single move.
Tim Dierkes
9:17
Also, our thinking on payroll would change if they unloaded a bunch of money or something.
Jeremy
9:17
Which players was there the biggest difference in opinion on? I feel like Senga in particular could greatly exceed projections.
Anthony Franco
9:18
Hmm, this is a good question
Steve Adams
9:18
I came in ultra low on Josh Bell and somehow let Tim talk me up to the moon.
Tim Dierkes
9:18
Some of the guys we talked about a ton included Josh Bell, Noah Syndergaard, and Carlos Estevez.  A lot of debating how many years they will get.
Anthony Franco
9:19
Thor, Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon were divisive
Oh, Tim and I like Zach Eflin a lot more than Steve does
Steve Adams
9:19
Oh yeah. Syndergaard's a good one. None of us really thought his '22 season was particularly exciting, but we still had him at four years for awhile, basically thinking someone would pay for the name even though this past season didn't really do much to portend upside.
Tim Dierkes
9:19
We saw a class of SP in Taillon, Manaea, Thor, and Taijuan who we all think could get four years, but easily might not.
Steve Adams
9:20
I hate the 3/36 pick on Thor, but I hate basically any prediction on him. I think he should try for the best two- or three-year deal he can get with an opt-out, because his 2022 season was the epitome of garden-variety, boring fourth starter.
Tim Dierkes
9:20
Anthony is the #1 Carlos Estevez hype man, and if that dude gets a three-year deal, I owe him a shirsey of Carlos on his new team.
Steve Adams
9:20
Hey I want a shirsey too
But yeah Anthony's words were "Estevez is getting three years and I will die on this hill"
Tim Dierkes
9:20
Can we get a pick of the TDA shirsey?  Does this thing allow images?
9:21
*pic
Did I ever send Jeff Todd a shirsey?
Anthony Franco
9:21
This reminds me that I'm still owed an E-Rod shirsey as well
Tim Dierkes
9:21
Oh shoot.  On it
Steve Adams
9:21
I have the McCann shirsey hanging in a shadow frame thing in my office; I embarrassingly have not framed the TDA one yet haha
Anthony Franco
9:21
As far as top of the market guys, Senga was tough as the questioner pointed out. Huge error bars on most NPB guys
Tim Dierkes
9:22
Steve has gone to bat for catchers every year and it always pays off.  This year I was careful to fully respect Christian Vazquez.
Anthony Franco
9:22
Correa also had a pretty wide range early on, although we eventually all agreed to push him up towards the top of the class
Steve Adams
9:22
"Fully respect" -- I had him at $11MM per!
Birddog
9:22
Orioles GM Elias says it's time for "liftoff." How much should I temper my expectations? Personally would love a Correa signing, but understand their market may not suitable for high end pursuit.
Tim Dierkes
9:23
I'd mostly forget about the top 10 FA, and most players after that are possible.  Probably not ones who received a QO.  Should be the most fun Orioles offseason in a long time.
Anthony Franco
9:23
Yeah I'd love the Correa fit there but it just feels too aggressive to project without much spending history from Elias on which to draw. Think it's more likely they dip into the middle tier of the starting pitching market
Steve Adams
9:23
I won't be stunned if he signs Correa -- he drafted him in Houston -- or Dansby or Xander, but I also didn't feel comfortable predicting it. I'm generally expecting more measured spending in the middle tiers.
LGM
9:24
With Taijuan estimated for $13M AAV over four, were you guys surprised he didn’t get a qualifying offer? What AAV would you expect is the floor to get a QO?
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