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Top 50 Trade Value Chat

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Ben Clemens

12:35

I think I mentioned that I had him kinda close to Tolle, Ashcraft, and Messick a bit lower

and that the big chunk of hitters I like (Gunnar, Montgomery, Rafaela, Pages, Merrill) could probably go eitehr way

but yeah, I dunno, some mixture of 'teams want pitching' and 'he's one of the best combos of established and controllable'?

12:36

one shortfall of the tier system is that I wanted a pitcher pairing for McLean, but eh, I would have been happy just floating McLean solo if it came to that

Woo was a tough eval, to be clear. Figuring out the T Mobile effect is not easy

rickdugo3000

12:36

i guess i'm just wondering if there was anything else with anthony. in red sox land there's been a lot of talk about his off the field, out and about habits. who knows. im not implying that felger and mazz are impacting your rankings but where griffin had a very similar injury and it did not seem to affect him i was wondering if there was more than just the injury dinging anthony

Ben Clemens

12:36

Nah, I mean, I get general bad vibes from the whole situation

but, I at least try not to have thoes affect my ranking

12:37

I'm only human, but I tried to note most of my considerations if they were anything other than like 'how do they hit and or pitch'

Marte, for exmaple

D-Wiz

12:37

Hey, good list! (Genuinely)

Ben Clemens

12:37

aldrinbatistarocks

12:37

As a certified colson montgomery watcher/enjoyer, I appreciated your very measured appraisal of where he's at. How different would his rating look if, and this seems relevant given the 2 most recent 1st round picks made by the Sox and some of James Fegan's reporting abt Colsons future, if Colson was an above average defensive 3rd baseman with the same offensive profile?

Ben Clemens

12:37

I think it's probably very similar, depending on how 'above average' he is

12:38

the truth is that we're going to learn more about his hitting in the next year than his defense, almost certainly

and that that's going to move the needle by more than a position switch or non switch would

Fangraphs Man

12:38

Would you consider a current-year draft pick for this if they were generational like Harper? Or would they be excluded regardless cuz they can’t be traded until the offseason

Ben Clemens

12:39

This is a good question, and links back to an earlier one about Yamamoto, so I'm going to add that too

Graham Lewis

12:39

Did you see the bit about Yamamoto having an opt-out if he’s traded? Does that change your ranking?

Ben Clemens

12:39

So, I think I'd put that guy on here

12:40

trade value doesn't imply 'will be traded' to me, and really, this is mostly a list of 'who's the best to have' not 'who will get traded'

so I'd just go with it. Though they'd have to be pretty generational, I'd say

like, the Griffin ranking is the most I've gone for potential over present in my five years running this plus one year splitting it

12:41

and that was like, everyone I talk to is one way, and I'm still shading vs. them, and they alreayd know my biases and whatnot. I made sure to note that it wasn't an easy call for me. I imagine that I'd have to be REALLY convinced that some guy who hadn't even played pro ball yet belongs

As for the Yamamoto if-traded opt out, I missed that. And probably it means that in future years I'm just gonna note it

because gimmicky, gotcha reasons for players to not be on here aren't that fun, imo

I think the list would be worse for Yamamoto's lack of inclusion, and quite frankly, it's not like he or Judge are getting traded anyway

so I think I might note that you can only trade for Yamamoto if he's into it and makes a deal with you about the opt out

12:42

but eh, I still think it's useful to benchmark how valauble people think this guy on this deal is

broeygallo

12:42

Ignoring the unique case of Ohtani, do you have a view of the shape of the value curve across the top 50? It doesn't feel linear. Just how much more valuable is a top 10 than a 25, or a 50? 2x? 3x?

Ben Clemens

12:43

oh, I can give you my tier breakdowns. Basically I'm really high on the top 4

then I have a bit of a break (the industry doesn't) before Griffin and Wetherholt, not a ton of one down to the next hitters (wood Caminero Kurtz)

12:45

but I had a subjective 'blend' of some factors I'm considering, and once you get outside about that area, peopel aren't close. Like I'm not sure how to think of pitcher value. But I do think that there's a very large value gap, like double the difference between anyone in the top 10 except Ohtani, by the time you're out of the top 19 (I wish it were top 20. Everyone above Yordan)

and of those, maybe you can have Turang and Elly a smidge lower than the rest, because they aren't around for as long

12:46

but I think there's kind of a big gap from there down. everyone 19 and up is worth quite a bit more than past that, to me

Cheeknbut

12:46

ooo ooo ooo would you describe the defensive WAR value vs Offensive WAR value due to externalities ??

Ben Clemens

12:46

yeah that's definitely part of it

Phil

12:46

I was interested that you noted some concerns about PCA's future defensive curve that you didn't about Rafaela. Is that just because CR is further into his deal, or do you see a difference there (such as CR relying more on instinct and less on speed, which I'd agree with)?

Ben Clemens

12:46

a little bit that, a little bit the relative risk

Rafaela is making so much less than PCA that I feel like your'e slightly more covered if he's just a 70 defender

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