JotCast | Top 50 Trade Value Chat | 7/24/2026

Top 50 Trade Value Chat

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Ben Clemens

12:47

but also, yeah, for my money Rafaela's instincts are the best there are

angryyankeesfan

12:47

Did you consider how a new cba could affect pre-arb players if the arbitration system is changed?

Ben Clemens

12:47

I did not. It would obviously upend this, and by how much depends on by how much arb is changed

12:48

but basically my view, based on what I've seen from both sides, is that changes to team control are likely to not be HUGELY impactful

higher minimum salary makes all the cheap guys a little less valuable, for example, and higher arb scale would as well, but eh, I just don't see a ton of movement happening there

as I mentioned in the intro, I did round down slightly on long contracts, because that feels like a place where there is meaningful uncertainty relative to the arb scale

12:49

but like, just slightly. if this exercise turned into me reading the CBA tea leaves instead of me ranking baseball players, I wouldn't really want to do it anymore

cosmichero

12:49

If power is more expensive to trade for than fielding or hit tool, why aren’t the 80 bats above the wetherholt/mcgonigle/pca/witt tier? Is it the contracts?

Ben Clemens

12:49

well, because the other tiers have the potential for more total juice, even if the juice you're getting is less valuable per ounce

12:50

like okay, PCA for example. ZiPS forecasts + my win curve have him with 300 million of surplus value

let's discount that

b/c it's defense

i dunno, 250? 225?

12:51

I have Wood at 200

I'm not 100% sure on these numbers. and I also didn't just stack rank based on surplus value or anything, I don't have a 'here's what teams value per dollar perfectly' because I don't think teams exactly enumerate that either

but that's generaly how I'm squaring it

if the power guys did a bunch of other stuff well too, they'd be higher

12:52

like if Caminero was a plus shortstop, I'd have him ahead of McGonigle

Baseball Learner

12:52

I look at the big three bashers(wood kurtz caminero), and then I look at Jordan Walker. If the past two seasons hadn't happened and I was just looking at his prospect report plus this years performance he seems very close to them, no?

Ben Clemens

12:52

Yeah sure

but like.... they did

12:53

also like, surely you have to consider that Kurtz, who I think is the weakest of that tier, has played maybe 1100 professional PA and has done nothing but hit

Skills feel more stable. Walker, who I really like, has fewer years of control and I'm a lot less confident in his bat

like it or not, projections matter for this, and projection systems are way higher on the guys who consistently do it over years than profiles like Walker's

12:54

he played in the majors last year and had a 66 wRC+! I sure hope that form is over and done with forever

but you know, he did

I should have mentioned him int he big bats at the end of the 50 group

he was in there too

and I talked to people about him

I think that the general view I got was kinda 6 of one, half dozen of another

12:55

I remember asking one person if they'd think I was crazy for having him on, and they said def not, but that he wasn't a must

I thikn that's about right. here the risk is just, is this real? or are you buying the mirage

and that's a subjective judgment, and a tough one at that

drplantwrench

12:55

how does lebron signing with the 76ers affect the angels trade deadline approach?

Ben Clemens

12:55

well it makes me, as someone who really wanted to see LeBron and Steph play together, very grumpy

12:56

are there any Angels decision makers who are Warriors fans? or potentially Heat fans?

Baseball Learner

12:56

How much of Schlittler's ranking is based on the assumption the if he lost a tick and needed to find a breaking or off speed pitch to balance things he could?

Ben Clemens

12:56

Yeah, I basically think that he could

I don't think he'd do it seamlessly or anything, but I feel that good pitchers generally have ways of adjusting

12:57

I htink the reason that the people I talked to in general had Burns ahead of Schlittler is that they see traits in him that make them think he'd be better at adjusting

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