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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Steve Adams

2:02

Salutations.

Let's get things underway! Thanks for the questions in advance, but feel free to keep 'em coming throughout the next hour!

wayneroo

2:02

Greetings.

Steve Adams

2:03

Likewise. We're off to a formal and polite start here folks.

sgrossman

2:03

If Max Scherzer has a Max Scherzer year, do the Nats re-sign him? How much will it likely cost them to do so?

Steve Adams

2:06

I'll depend to some extent on whether they're able to get extensions with Turner and/or Soto completed this spring. Right now, the Nats' luxury obligations in 2022 sit at $84MM, so they certainly have room. But if you add on a $35MM-ish AAV for Soto and something around 30 for Turner, suddenly they're in the 140-150 range while still needing to address numerous spots on the roster.

Of course, that assumes the luxury tax system remains in place, which we don't know for sure. They could radically alter things during next winter's CBA talks. At the very least, the tax threshold could (and should) rise substantially.

As for Scherzer's contract, I think he'll look at Verlander's two-year, $66MM extension as a benchmark of sorts, looking to top that in AAV and perhaps seeking a third year. I'd guess somewhere around the Bauer total (3/102), and without the opt-outs.

Reynold S.

2:06

Which bullpen do you prefer - Phillies or Marlins?

Steve Adams

2:09

I'll take the Phillies group. Obviously the bullpen was a mess in 2020, but Neris is still good, and I love the budget pickup of Archie Bradley. I think Jose Alvardo has the potential to be a monster, and if Kintzler/Watson make the club after signing NRI deals, that's a solid top five in the group. David Hale always gets dudes out, too, despite being constantly shuffled on and off the Yankees' 40-man roster.

I liked the Marlins' low-cost pickups of Dylan Floro and Adam Cimber. I don't buy into John Curtiss like they apparently do, but they didn't pay a huge price to get him. The Bass signing was fine, and Yimi Garcia is underrated. But on the whole, it's just a less-exciting group for me.

Guess I'll just stick in the NL East since we've got many questions from there......

Lee Harvey Oddball

2:09

Out of Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard, who gets an extension and who gets to walk?

Steve Adams

2:10

Even though Lindor has the highest asking price, I also think he's the likeliest to sign. The Mets won't say it, but there's a little bit of fan pressure on their new owner, Steve Cohen, to spend at the high levels so many fans dreamed about when he was approved as their new owner. Lindor seems open to signing if a team is willing to pay market prices. If the Mets will go into the $350MM range, I bet he'll give it very real consideration.

2:11

I don't think the Mets will meet Conforto's price -- they wouldn't go to 150 on Springer, and I think Conforto's ask will be in that range or higher -- and if you're Synderrgaard, why sign early rather than show your health for 2-4 months before hitting the market?

2:12

It's not crazy to me to think that Thor might come back, pitch well, and still accept a qualifying offer though.

Blue Joy

2:12

I am not up to speed on service time rules. Insofar as Nate Pearson is still rookie-eligible, does that mean that his service clock also has not started? Does that also mean that he did not use a minor league option in 2020? Is there a service time impact from keeping him off the field until May?

Steve Adams

2:14

A player begins accruing service time as soon as they're promoted to the Major League roster (or injured list) during a season. So Pearson accrued service time last year -- but the Jays already played the game to manipulate him. You need 172 days of service to constitute one full year of MLB service, and Pearson was credited with 169 days last year. It was a pretty blatant and obvious service time dance from them last year.

He's controlled through the 2026 season at the moment

Millie-waugh-kay

2:15

Any news on Travis Shaw with his opt out date coming up in a few days? Is he on track to make the roster? Who is a DFA candidate to make room if they add him, Ray Black?

Steve Adams

2:16

He seems to have a pretty real chance to make the roster -- unless the Brewers do something like sign Maikel Franco?

They won't really have to DFA anyone to add him to the 40-man. Mark Mathias' shoulder injury is apparently pretty serious, so it seems like he's a 60-day injured list candidate. Perhaps Ray Black could go on the 60 as well, though I'm not sure about the severity of his current injury or his timeline.

2:16

As a Mets fans, I'm new to this whole "pitching depth" idea, but it does seem like the Mets have some decent 6th, 7th, 8th SP options. Is the Mets pitching depth good/average/thin compared to other competitive teams, particularly in division?

Steve Adams

2:18

Their depth is the best it's been in years, and I think it's roughly on par -- at least in terms of how many serviceable options they'll have in the upper minors -- with the rest of the division. The Nationals' depth is the weakest, but obviously the top three in their rotation is pretty damn formidable if each of Scherzer, Strasburg and Cobrin is healthy like they were in 2019.

AAV Mailbag

2:18

Am I crazy to think Correa might be one of those bet on themselves 1 year contract types if the Astros don't resign him and he posts a sub 3.5 WAR season? He's talented but he comes with injuries, trash cans and a bit of a headcase the past season. Maybe take that ego and say "I'll show you I'm worth a big deal"?

Steve Adams

2:21

In general, I don't think we'll see too many one-year, "prove it" deals from the top free agents on the market anymore. Even coming off a poor season, Correa could try for something like the three-year deal with multiple opt-outs we saw from Bauer. For a player as young as Correa and with his upside, a team would probably be fine with such an arrangement.

That'd be my expectation with a good-not-great season for Correa. Get some long-term flexibility and the opportunity to return to market if you round back into form and go 5-7 WAR as a 27-year-old in 2022.

Monsieur Moncada

2:21

Partly a fantasy baseball question, but of these mid-rotation guys, who do you think is most likely to have a strong 2021: Civale, Eflin, Houser, Lindblom, Mahle, Musgrove, or Smyly.

Steve Adams

2:21

Fantasy questions are A-OK! I'm in ... 5? 6? leagues this year? Ha

2:23

I would worry about Smyly's durability, but I love him on a per-inning basis.

Of that bunch, I'm going Musgrove and Civale as my two favorites. Both Brewers guys interest me, but Milwaukee is so short with its leash that you might not even get five innings out of your starter every time. I doubt either, Lindblom in particular, will have too many outings where they even complete six.

Derek Falvey

2:23

Am I going to be able to fit a guy like JT Riddle into my lineup with all the talent I have waiting for a chance?

Steve Adams

2:24

I think Riddle is only cracking the Twins' roster with several injuries elsewhere, but if they can stick him in Triple-A to begin the season, there are worse guys to have as a depth piece. Can play him in any of the three outfield spots or at any of short, third or second really.

bob

2:25

My longtime dynasty fantasy league just, unexpectedly, folded. Where can I find another dynasty league w/ people who seriously want to play fantasy for a longtime fantasy league?

Steve Adams

2:26

I'm fortunate to have a couple with friends from my college years that are still chugging along into my mid-30s. I would imagine you could search around on Twitter and try to find some dynasty leagues looking for serious, competitive owners.

South Capitol St

2:26

What are the chances that Victor Robles actually improves his plate discipline enough to succeed at leadoff? How much of a power drop will such a feat entail?

Steve Adams

2:28

He doesn't strike me as a prototypical leadoff type; his discipline has actually deteriorated over the years. He can still be a very good player -- average or better power with elite defense -- but the OBP seems like it'll always be a little lackluster to me.

Drew W

2:29

Do you think Jed Lowrie will make the A's opening day team?

Steve Adams

2:32

It would come as a surprise to me. I get that there's little harm in giving a chance to a veteran guy your organization knows well and very clearly respects, but Lowrie has been a complete nonfactor with nebulous knee injuries over the past two seasons, and he'll be 37 in early April.

I'm not a huge Tony Kemp believer, admittedly, but I have more faith in him being the passable half of a platoon with Chad Pinder than I do of Lowrie filling that role.

Lowrie is starting to get into games now, though, so I suppose we'll see how he looks.

Brewers

2:32

If the Brewers go with "only" 4 true OFs, with 14 (seemingly necessary this season) pitchers, who completes the Bench spots?

Steve Adams

2:35

I disagree that 14 pitchers would be unnecessary. Teams are still going to limit workloads, limit start lengths, etc. -- especially the Brewers. They're already known as one of the most aggressive clubs in terms of limiting trips through the order.

I think you're looking at Avi Garcia as an oft-used "fourth" outfielder, Manny Pina backing up Omar Narvaez, Luis Urias sharing time at third base/shortstop if Travis Shaw does make the roster, and probably an infield/outfield option like Daniel Robertson.

If Shaw DOESN'T make the roster, then they'll probably give Robertson/Urias more time at 3B, carry Vogelbach as a 1B/bench option.

Regardless, it doesn't look good for out-of-options OFs like Derek Fisher or Billy McKinney

@TheRealRangers29

2:35

Do you think Brent Honeywell and Forrest Whitley can still have successful MLB careers?

Steve Adams

2:37

I'm more optimistic on Whitley. I think this Tommy John is his first surgery? Trying to remember if he's had one in the past and blanking off the cuff. But Honeywell is up to four arm surgeries now. The talent is clear, but man that is just so much injury damage to overcome.

bob

2:37

Can I join your league?

Steve Adams

2:37

We are full up! Sorry!

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