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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Steve Adams

2:39

We are doing a fantasy league with Front Office subscribers this season, which Tim solicited invites for a couple weeks back. I think the spots in that have been filled, but I guess I'm not 100% certain. We'll be doing more of those in future seasons, though, and we have some stuff in the works that might allow you and some fellow Front Office subscribers to coordinate on putting something together. We're going to continually try to make the whole Front Office package more appealing

Not FanGraphs

2:39

Thank you for chatting today. FanGraphs forgot about all of us this week.

Steve Adams

2:40

I love FanGraphs! I'm sure they have good reasons if they haven't had chats this week, but I'm happy to fill the void to the best of my ability.

Derek Falvey

2:40

Odorizzi to Houston. Should I have kept him? He gave me 2 solid years.

Steve Adams

2:42

I would imagine if Odorizzi had been willing to take the contract he ultimately signed early in the winter, then he'd still be in Minnesota. I can assure you, however, that he was not. If that were the case, the Royals probably would've spent a few extra million to sign him over Minor, too.

I'm sure Odorizzi is disappointed in how the market played out for all the non-Bauer starters this winter, but he landed in a decent spot and will have the chance to return to market after the 2022 season, which he'll surely do so long as he is healthy. That player option is pretty light.

Chief

2:43

Who are your predictions for 2021 breakout hitter and breakout pitcher?

Steve Adams

2:46

I still think we're going to get a huge Vlad Jr. breakout, but that's not a very adventurous pick, I realize. I remain a Nick Solak believer at the plate -- doubt he's ever much of a defender -- and think Ty France will hit in Seattle as well (again, without a ton of defensive value). Speaking of the M's, if Evan White can cut back on the strikeouts and even find a middle ground between his 2020 level and his Double-A levels, he'll be a real good hitter. The exit velocities from him are impressive.

2:48

On the pitching side of things, I do quite like Aaron Civale in Cleveland, and I don't know if you can call German Marquez a "breakout" candidate, but I think he has a chance to be better than his ERAs to date have shown. I remain a Freddy Peralta fan as well. I'm buying Kevin Gausman's 2020 improvements.

bob

2:49

If Tyler O'Neil learns how to make ~.245 contact, how many dingers does he hit in a full season?

Steve Adams

2:52

He's a 30-35 homer guy if he can get some consistency. He actually made some strides last year -- cut both his strikeout and pop-up rates considerably. The .189 average on balls in play was a killer for him, but he still made hard contact at a good clip. One of his problems is that he ranks near the top of the league in terms of his exit velo on balls in the air and near the bottom in exit velo for balls on the ground.

Too many weak grounders, but there are elements to be encouraged by in his game.

@TheRealRangers29

2:53

If I may answer the question by Chief, I can use examples purely on the Rangers to answer this: Ronald Guzman and Kolby Allard. Guzman totally redefined his swing this off-season, and he says he feels comfortable playing the game again. It shows with what his ST results have been. Allard worked on tunneling and moving to the 1B side of the rubber this off-season, and I think he will show some of that former top-prospect material we once thought he had. I compared him to Mike Minor a while back, and I stick by that comp. Expect good years ahead.

Steve Adams

2:53

Rangers29 picks a pair of Rangers to break out. I am shocked! :)

2:55

We will see with regard to Guzman. He's having a nice spring, but his batted-ball profile to this point in his big league career has been awful. We hear about guys overhauling things in Winter Ball all the time but that doesn't necessarily mean improved in-game results come the regular season. Mac Williamson!

Derek Falvey

2:56

I think Tim had Bryant at something like 6/150. He would have to return to form for that, I would think.

Steve Adams

2:56

Well he'd have to bounce back from 2020, yeah, but the Power Rankings are based on players' earning potential. Obviously when we're talking earning potential, we're assuming things go their way. The point is just that a healthy Bryant, unsurprisingly, is among the top potential earners on next year's class.

2:58

Broadly speaking, I don't think Bryant needs the bounceback that some people seem to, though. It feels like people have been down on the guy for years simply because he hasn't matched his ROY and MVP production. But he put up a 137 wRC+ from 2017-19 even when he had taken a "step back" from peak levels. If you want to throw out '17, even he was still at 131 from 2018-19.

Bryant has been an elite hitter outside of last year's injury-shortened year

Pujols

2:58

Sunk cost. Should he just platoon with Ohtani at DH so Walsh gets his spot at first? I know it's he's a legend but he is just not good. At least he can take AB's against lefties and let Ohtani square up the righties.

Steve Adams

2:59

Yeah, they're in a tough spot. He's been a poor hitter for years, though, and they've continued to play him. I think he'll probably get way more ABs than he should, once again.

Arte Moreno's Reflection

2:59

Am I my own worst enemy? Will Perry be a failed product due to me wanting to play GM instead of the person I hire to do so? Am I... a pain in the butt? Steve... I am scared of who I am.

Steve Adams

3:01

People love to blame the GMs in Anaheim, but we're on the fourth one in a decade. I don't think the GMs have been the problem, although I will say I found some of the pitching profiles Eppler's group targeted to be a little puzzling.

3:02

I will be curious to see if, next year, Minasian is actually given the latitude to make the moves he wants, or if Arte gets Albert off the books and comes barreling in to make sure he signs one of the shortstops for $300MM while continually treating the rotation like an afterthought.

bob

3:02

IF you had to guess, how many of the Top 10 FAs for 2021 actually reach free agencies vs. sign extensions or not-opt-out?

Steve Adams

3:03

I think Freeman will sign an extension, and I don't think Arenado will opt out.

I could see a Kershaw extension or a Lindor extension, too, but Freeman and Arenado are the two I feel most strongly about.

Not FanGraphs

3:04

Oh I love FanGraphs too, but I had to bust balls somewhere and send props your way.

Steve Adams

3:04

I will take all of your props!

But FanGraphs rocks. I've had the fortune of meeting a good chunk of the staff there at the Winter Meetings and they're all great. Fun group of people, great group of writers and baseball minds.

Angels Rotation 2022

3:05

Here me out. Sign Syndergaard. Trade for Brad Keller. Hope that Ohtani throws enough this season to show he will be able to pitch 25+ starts the following season. Maybe go after a pricey pitcher if their teams really just can't compete in their division (Nola and the Phillies or Gray and the Reds - prob more likely the Reds). Fill in the rest with a Gausman or Bundy type in the back end. Pretty solid to compete in a dying division like the AL West is heading.

Steve Adams

3:08

Going down the line here...

Sign Syndergaard: Possible, though as I mentioned earlier, he's someone I can see accepting a QO.
Trade for Brad Keller: The Royals are about 20 times likelier to extend Keller than to trade him. I see a zero percent chance they trade him, unless the Angels (or another club) just offers a comedic overpay. The Royals are trying to win now, and even when they were "rebuilding," they didn't trade away controllable pieces. They probably had teams ask about Merrifield around eleventy billion times.
"Pricey" pitcher: I'm not really sure who falls into this category. The two arms you listed are on bargain deals. The Phillies won't trade Nola -- they just hired Dave Dombrowski to take over, which is the opposite of rebuilding. The Reds trading Gray seems plausible.
Gausman/Bundy: Neither will be signing for "back end" money. If Gausman repeats his 2020 he's going to be in the $80-100MM range. Bundy could, too, for that matter, though he doesn't have the velo teams love.

3:11

At any rate, the Angels have lots of work to do to fill out the rotation next year when Heaney and Bundy are free agents -- that much I agree with. The specific scenarios you laid out strike me as more implausible, but the general idea of moving one of their top outfield prospects for a Sonny Gray type, then signing a pair of starters seems feasible.

They'll still have Canning, Ohtani, Barria, Sandoval. Detmers is on the way. Chris Rodriguez, too.

Veteran Long Term Contracts

3:11

Not a huge fan of the MLBN these days but Kenny, O'Dowd and Sherman all made points that the guy in their 30's who produced in his 20's wont be seeing those long term contracts again, at least on the offensive side (Pujols, Cabrera, Cano, etc). You think it'll go toward shorter high AAV, drafting younger players? I'd really love to shorten FA to 4 years as it'd be way more exciting for fans during off seasons but I know the owners would shoot that down

Steve Adams

3:12

Yeah -- the thing is that everyone knew the Pujols, Cabrera and Cano deals were terrible the moment they were signed. I was on vacation in another country when the TIgers extended Cabrera, and when I got on WiFi and got a text message from a friend talking about the Cabrera extension, I thought he was making up fake baseball headlines to troll me, haha.

3:13

I think we'll see clubs move toward higher-AAV, shorter-term deals for some of those guys on the back end of their primes, yes. The MLBPA would love to shorten the path to free agency, but you're right that owners will strongly push back on it. I'm not sure what type of middle ground the two sides can find. The relationship between the parties is at an all-time low.

Rules Guy

3:14

Is there a 10 day or 15 day IL this year?

Steve Adams

3:15

This feels like one I should know off the top of my head, but with all the rule changes, I admittedly am scrambling to try to recall. It is 10 days for position players, and I will look between now and next week's chat to remember if we're to 15 for pitchers or holding at 10 under health/safety guidelines.

3:16

The 45-day is back to 60!

Nick Krall

3:16

NL Central winner over/under 87 wins?

Steve Adams

3:16

I'll take the over but not by a ton. I don't think we're going to have a 95-game winner emerge from that bunch

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