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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Steve Adams

9:13

Apologies on the scheduling hiccup everyone! We'll get this chat started at 11am CT today (Nov. 13), so feel free to drop in your questions ahead of time and we will chat then!

10:57

Hey everyone -- thanks for joining! Let's get underway

Ted

10:57

Will the Royals non-tender Soler and / or Franco? I read they are in line for $9MM and $7MM via arbitration.

Steve Adams

10:59

The projection model we're using -- Matt Swartz's 37% method -- has Soler at $8MM and Franco $5MM. I don't think either would be cut loose at that rate. A year ago they were looking at extending Soler, and Dayton Moore has already spoken this winter about how pleased he is with the way Franco played in 2020

Kirt

10:59

Will Tampa Bay get Morton back?

Will Tampa Bay make a run at James McCann?

Steve Adams

11:01

I'm 50-50 on Morton going back there. I think he'd prefer to remain there, as his family lives in Bradenton -- about 30 miles from Tropicana Field. But if the Rays are only offering him $5-6MM and an East Coast team near his wife's family in Delaware offers double that amount, that might sway him.

As for McCann, I think he could reasonably be in their price range, and they need to get more than they got from Zunino the past couple years -- good as the glove may have been.

Varkey

11:02

How often do you see FAs say they won't sign with a specific team for any amount of money, like Marcus Stroman seems to have done here:

@JGood415 @keithlaw No amount of money honestly. Peace of mind is always priority.

How much affect do you think the Tony LaRussa situation will have on the White Sox efforts to sign other Free Agents?

Steve Adams

11:03

It's pretty rare. I do think La Russa would be a negative for some players, yes -- Stroman isn't the only one, though he might be the only one willing to voice it.

That's not unique to the White Sox, necessarily, either. I would imagine plenty of players don't want to sign to play for A.J. Hinch or Alex Cora because they're still so resentful of the Astros scandal and have lost respect for them

Daniel

11:04

I need to get this off my chest and it's about Trevor Bauer.

Dude's a good pitcher, at times even elite. BUT am I the only one feeling that he's entirely overhyped, especially this off season?

Granted it's a rather bleak FA, but I look at his numbers and I'm so confused.

2018 and 2020 were his two clearly above average years. Though neither year had 30 plus starts. Up until last season, he sported an ERA at a low 4 and FIP at a high 3. ERA+ was 109.

Which, by all accounts, aren't bad but for teams to drop 30+M on a guy who's had walk issues, inconsistencies as a starter, along side the off field shenanigans seems a bit strange?

Maybe I'm missing stuff in the more advance analytics/statcast deparment but I cannot be the only one who's slightly confused?

Steve Adams

11:06

Bauer is a former No. 3 overall pick and elite prospect who was always projected to have an ace ceiling and has been that in two of the past three seasons. His spin rate, swinging-strike rate, batted-ball profile etc. are all more appealing than his career ERA.

At the end of the day, teams in 2020 are going to pay a player for what they project them to do moving forward rather than because of what they did in the past. No team cares that Bauer posted a 5+ ERA when he was a rookie or that his career ERA is closer to 4.00. They care what they believe he'll produce in 2021 and beyond.

DJ No Way Jays

11:07

Cant see the Jays being players on LeMaheu. With Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin coming can't see them tying up all those years and $$. Could see them on a Kris Bryant trade or a guy like LaStella on a short term one or two year deal as a bridge

Steve Adams

11:09

Groshans and Martin are still multiple years away, and you can't simply assume that either is going to be anywhere near LeMahieu's level. Signing LeMahieu would be a 2021-22 focused move, and they'll figure out the moving pieces later. Players get injured, prospects decline or get traded. There's no sense passing on someone they deem to be an immediate win because two years from now Jordan Groshans might be MLB-ready. They could organically have a spot open for him anyhow -- especially with Cavan Biggio's versatility.

King Kelly

11:09

Do you expect upper-level FAs to wait and sign later in the off-season, Boras-style? Or will they want to avoid the uncertainty and lock in early?

Steve Adams

11:10

I think the bigger names will linger until they find the deals they're looking for, and I do expect that Springer, Bauer, Realmuto etc. will get strong guarantees.

Trevor Bauer

11:10

Since Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman have accepted their QOs, how will that enhance my contract opportunities? Even though revenues are likely to be down again in 2021, is 5 years, $150M possible?

Steve Adams

11:12

Gausman and Stroman don't really have much of an impact on his market; he was always in a tier of his own regardless of what happened with that pair. I do think 5/150 is plausible.

I wonder whether Bauer would want to lock himself in for that length, given his prior comments about wanting to go shorter terms and maximize his earning. We capped him at four years when talking multi-year deals.

Opt-out clauses could always be a nice compromise and means of allowing him to similarly control his fate though.

SteveM

11:12

I asked Tim the other day if he thought Charlie Morton would ever consider the TWINS despite an east coast connection. Thanks for the chat from my old home town...warm enough for you?

Steve Adams

11:14

It's a balmy 21 degrees in St. Paul. Lovely.

I do think Morton would strongly prefer to stay in Tampa or sign somewhere like the Phillies or Nats. If the Twins outbid the field and offered him something like $18MM, maybe he'd consider it, but I don't find that too likely.

King Kelly

11:15

Cleveland is said to be asking for 3 good mlb-ready players for Lindor. Seems like the only teams who will bite at this price (without an extension) are those who see him as their final piece in 2021 and who need a SS, and there are not all that many of those. Does Cleveland get their price, or do they have to settle?

Steve Adams

11:18

I look at what the Dodgers were able to pull for Betts and think there's no reason the Indians shouldn't be able to get a similar return. A team like the Mets could send one of their young shortstops -- Andres Gimenez, perhaps -- and include another couple of near-MLB assets to acquire Lindor and make a legitimate bid to extend him.

Lindor's salary will come in something like $7MM under what Betts was at, and the Indians aren't dumping $48MM worth of salary like the Dodgers did with David Price.

I could also see the Angels, Jays, Phillies and others getting in the mix. I expect a strong return and think Lindor is one hundred percent traded this winter.

Dallas

11:18

Biggest non Lindor trade this offseason?

Steve Adams

11:19

I've wondered if the Indians would trade Carlos Carrasco, too, and I wouldn't be surprised if teams at least try to overwhelm the Rays for Blake Snell.

Griffin

11:19

With his spin rates, is Garrett Richards the new Lance Lynn/Charlie Morton (veteran starter who breaks out after signing a multiple year team friendly contract?

Steve Adams

11:22

He could be, but there are mammoth durability concerns with him as well. Richards has pitched parts of 10 seasons in the Majors and only topped 100 innings in three of them. He hasn't gone about 76 innings since 2015.

Some team will give him a two-year deal with that exact hope in mind. Tim Dierkes was much more bullish on Richards than me when we were doing our Top 50 discussions; I just think the injury history is so glaring... you can't even project 100 innings out of him.

Andy

11:22

Are the Cubs going to do anything at all this Winter? And (honestly) how much is ownership holding everything up?

Steve Adams

11:24

Ownership is 100% the reason they haven't done anything for the past two years. Epstein and Hoyer aren't spending their own money; any president or GM would probably spend like a "drunken sailor," to borrow Steve Cohen's term, if it were up to them alone.

Epstein has been talking about changing up the lineup for a couple years now, but I actually think the Cubs will be active this winter, with Bryant, Schwarber and Contreras among the likelier options to be moved.

11:25

Yu Darvish could be an under-the-radar option to be moved, given the huge demand for starters and the thin supply in free agency. He'd be the best arm on the trade market, and his contract was actually front-loaded

He's "only" owed $59MM over the next three seasons.

11:26

Er, I guess it's now $62MM because of the Cy Young vote bonus he had in his contract

Still plenty reasonable.

Jon

11:26

Based on the FA market we've seen so far (limited sample, but pretty decent!) who do you think is likeliest to far exceed their MLBTR contract prediction? Likeliest to get way less or even take a minors deal?

Steve Adams

11:28

As I wrote in that Semien post yesterday, I was the high guy on our staff for him and think we estimated way too low to give him the 2019 Didi Gregorius treatment (one year, $14MM).

I think Semien can command a strong three-year or perhaps even a four-year deal. He's a clear, everyday shortstop in my view and some team will compensate him as such this winter. He's my pick to outperform our contract.

11:29

I could see Jake Odorizzi coming in at south of the three-year deal we gave him. The 2020 season was a lost year, but he didn't have any arm issues, and his velocity spike was maintained. My thought there was that we were basically willing to throw out Stroman's lost year and give him a strong prediction, so we should do the same with Odorizzi, who we originally had at one year.

11:30

We picked 3/51 for him last year -- nothing about him has changed much except he's a year older. Three years seems plausible to me ... but I can see clubs trying to hold the wasted 2020 season against him and lowballing him.

Dallas

11:30

Congratulations to Kim Ng, its about time

Steve Adams

11:31

Big fan of the hire, agreed. She's been a runner up so many times in the past, this has felt like a long time coming.

Ernesto

11:31

What do you think we can expect from Tyler Beede this season?

Steve Adams

11:35

Have to imagine he'll miss the first couple months of the season, since his surgery was late March in 2020.

I'm honestly not that big on Beede. I know he had the first-round hype on multiple occasions, but he's never pitched with great control or missed bats at an elite level. He has average-ish spin on the fastball, worse on the breaking ball and yields too much hard contact.

He's a fifth starter for me, although I wouldn't mind seeing them put him in the bullpen, scrap the slider and tell him to go four-seam/curveball only and see if that turns him into a more appealing late-inning option.

That Baseball Guy

11:36

Thanks for holding a chat today. Do you expect any ace pitchers to be traded this offseason?

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