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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Steve Adams

11:39

There's no one who stands out as a must-trade option, but I do think we'll see a lot of teams try to creatively pry away players who normally wouldn't appear to be targets. A few names that at least strike me as plausible:

Yu Darvish
Blake Snell
Carlos Carrasco
German Marquez

There will be some solid options beyond that... Sean Manaea, Jon Gray, Joe Musgrove, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd

11:40

I wonder if the Padres might try to sell high on Zach Davies since he only has the one year of team control remaining and they're SO deep in pitching that they could stomach the loss and turn him into multiple younger pieces.

Jon

11:41

Of the 30 teams, how many do you think will end up raising payroll relative to their pre-pandemic 2020 number? Right now there are only two when factoring in arbitration projections (Pirates and Orioles, either/both of whom could end up cutting payroll).

Steve Adams

11:42

Very few. The Mets seem like a given, and I can see the White Sox, Marlins, Padres and other clubs that are in the "emerge from the rebuild" phase do it. The Giants seem likely to be higher than they were back in Spring Training. But broadly speaking most clubs' payrolls will decrease, and some teams will absolutely gut theirs (Cleveland)

Baseball needs a Salary Cap

11:42

It will be hard to digest the Dodgers Signing Free Agent Pitcher Trevor Bauer. Los Angeles already has the highest team payroll, and a geographical advantage and access to the most Revenues (Fox TV contract). The League has to stop allowing the Big market teams to pile talent on top of talent, with only token penalties after the player signs on. Pontificate .....

Steve Adams

11:46

I'm about as anti-salary-cap as it gets. Yes, it leads to some clubs outspending smaller-revenue teams, but the sport as a whole keeps making more money and the players should be entitled to their share of that via guaranteed contracts.

I think teams should be able to spend what they want, and I also don't subscribe to the idea that any team in 2020 can simply "buy" a championship by signing high-end players. The Rays were just in the World Series and contend every year. We see smaller-payroll clubs make the postseason every year and often go on deep runs. The Dodgers may have a huge payroll, but they also have an elite player development department that has produced a huge number of homegrown stars, which is where most of their resource are allocated (Betts notwithstanding)

King Kelly

11:47

Baseball America has started issuing its top-10 prospect lists by team. Any surprises so far - players rated too highly, or players not included in the top 10?

Steve Adams

11:47

I haven't looked at every team too closely and I wouldn't be one to question them anyway. BA is awesome at what they do, and their staff lives and breathes minor leagues and prospect evaluation. That's not an area that I specialize in or in which I claim to be any kind of expert.

Griffin

11:48

Of the big 4 free agents (LeMahieu, Springer, Bauer, Realmuto) who signs first?

Steve Adams

11:49

I don't expect any to sign that early, but LeMahieu lingered on the market far longer than I'm sure he preferred last time and has a big-market team anxious to try to re-sign him (Yankees), so I think there are some market factors that can point to him being the first of the bunch, even if it doesn't happen until sometime in December.

Matt

11:50

I've seen Blake Snell mentioned as a trade target and it doesn't make sense to me. Yes the Rays are notoriously cheap, but they just made the world series and aren't losing any key players besides maybe Morton. Why would they trade away their ace?? And what would a package for Snell even look like? I'd imagine it'd have to be a bit of an overpay.

Steve Adams

11:55

It'd have to be a massive overpay. I don't think anyone expects the Rays to shop Snell, they just have sustained the success they have by capitalizing on opportunity and not being overly sentimental with the players they're willing to move away.

With teams cutting costs and still looking to get better, a cost-controlled legitimate No. 1 starter, which Snell is, should be the most coveted asset on the market. Teams are going to recognize that and make aggressive offers, and the Rays will listen because they have to in order to remain competitive with such a middling commitment to payroll from ownership.

You'd be talking about an immediate replacement for Snell in the rotation and multiple elite prospects and/or controllable minor leaguers. It would have to be jaw-dropping in my view.

Vlad Jr

11:55

Are the Jays going to humor me and give me another year at 3b so I can convince myself once and for I'm not really cut out for the hot corner?

Steve Adams

11:56

I don't think they'll give him a full-time look there, no. Maybe he'll get some occasional reps there so they can get Rowdy in at 1B and get someone a breather at DH, but the ship seems to have sailed on him as a viable third baseman. I don't know how strongly anyone ever believed that would be the case.

Darrell

11:56

Curious as to your thoughts on how the Red Sox try and re-build / re-tool their starting rotation, and bullpen? The obvious being health from Sale and Rodriguez.... do you see guys like Kluber or Taijuan Walker being possibilities, or maybe a Brad Hand at the backend of the pen.....

Steve Adams

12:01

I think you'll see them acquire more players in the Nick Pivetta mold -- buy low on some controllable guys. Maybe a Joey Luchessi type who's been kind of forced out of his organization's immediate rotation plans. Some of the Braves former top prospects who don't look to have rotation spots would make sense (Toussaint). For immediate additions via free agency, they'll probably just focus on some steady innings behind a hopefully healthy trio of Sale, E-Rod and Eovaldi. If that trio is at full strength in July and they have some steady innings from Jose Quintana behind them -- someone of that ilk -- plus Pivetta in the five spot... that's not a bad group, really. They can't bank on that, though, which is why I'd prefer to see them add someone with lesser health concerns than a Kluber or Paxton.

In the 'pen, I doubt they spend too aggressively on multi-year deals. That doesn't feel very Chaim Bloom-esque; maybe they'll do some 2/12 or 2/14 type of arrangements, but I'd gravitate more toward one-year value plays

Mr Roctober

12:01

Of Seager, Carrasco, Baez, Story, and Lindor, which ones will actually end up on the FA market next year and which ones will sign extensions before then?

Steve Adams

12:04

I imagine whichever team acquires Lindor in a trade will make a significant effort to try to extend him. Corey Seager is a Boras guy, so it won't be him, and I don't think Dick Monfort (Rockies owner) will pay to extend Story.

I can see Lindor and Baez possibly being extended. I expect Correa, Seager and Story to reach the market.

12:05

Ok. I have to wrap this up for the week. We'll do another chat with the Front Office subscribers next week.

Thank you so much, as always, for your support. You guys are awesome. Enjoy your weekend!

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