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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat With Anthony Franco
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Anthony Franco
3:15
At that point, he's hitting the market probably looking at something between the 4/70 we projected for Schwarber and the 5/115 we had for Castellanos
3:16
So let's ballpark that around 5/95 for his free agent years plus the around 24M he's scheduled to make through arbitration and you end up just shy of 120M
3:17
Price in a bit of a discount for the team taking the risk in locking him up early, and I think somewhere in the 6/100-110 range could be mutually agreeable
3:18
Obviously, that's all back-of-the-napkin math, but that's where I'd ballpark it
Would I do it if I were the Jays? Probably not. Vlad and Bo are safer bets to continue to be superstars, given Teoscar's swing-and-miss and poor defense
3:19
I don't think they have to trade him either. Could just keep him around for two years via arb and let him walk
Guest
3:19
Who are some of the Big names being moved.
what trades do you see happening after the so called lockout. Do you see and pitching being moved.
Anthony Franco
3:20
The Reds and A's pitchers (Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt) will all come up
They're not all getting moved, but I think 2 or 3 are. Then you've got Olson/Chapman in Oakland, Jake Odorizzi, maybe the Padres find a salary dump for Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers. There'll be a bunch of trades
Jays Fan
3:21
Who will be the Blue Jays third baseman on opening day?
Anthony Franco
3:22
I lean Biggio with some form of help (McNeil, Segura maybe) acquired to play second
Confused in KC
3:22
Anthony, thank you for the latest installment in the Collective Bargaining Issues series. Those continue to be some of my favorite articles during the lockout. The MLBPA's opposition to a salary floor seems to be a philosophical resistance couched in "free market" principles. Even as a supporter of the players in this particular negotiation, I'm too jaded and cynical to accept that on its face. Surely there has to be some underlying economic reason for why the players do not want a floor. I keep rolling this around in my small brain only to arrive at the same conclusion: a floor would seem to be of benefit to the players, boosting the incentives/secondary market for rebuilding teams to take on bloated/underwater contracts and possibly even nudging up contract values for the middle class of players who have seen their share of revenue pie continue to dwindle. What am I missing?
Anthony Franco
3:23
I don't think the players are anti-floor, so much as every offer from the league that comes with a floor is attached to some counterbalance to disincentivize spending at the top of the market
3:24
I.e. pairing the $100MM floor with the $180MM luxury tax threshold
3:25
So it's not necessarily a philosophical unwillingness to put in a floor for the MLBPA so much as the union's belief that the floor isn't valuable enough to acquiesce to whatever corresponding provision the league wants to implement to check spending in some other way
3:26
I think the thing you mentioned about pushing rebuilding teams to take underwater contracts is a big hold up. The Orioles bailing out the Padres by taking on Eric Hosmer to grab Robert Hassell isn't really moving the needle for the players, at least not directly. It's redistributing existing spending among teams without throwing money back into free agency
3:27
Now maybe you'd argue that the possibility to shed that deal makes a team like the Padres more willing to sign Eric Hosmer in the first place, etc., but I don't think it's a direct enough benefit
Joshua
3:27
Any chance the Nats can move Patrick Corbin in a bad contract deal in any creative way?
Anthony Franco
3:28
Not that I can see. Three more years, backloaded deal, he looks terrible. It's pretty rare to have a megadeal like that go south so quickly
3:29
Corbin was awesome in Year One, and they probably don't win the 2019 World Series without him, so you could argue that's all worth it. But man, the last five years of that deal might be trending towards Jordan Zimmermann territory
Sid Bream
3:29
Do you think that Pache, Contreras, Davidson, Ynoa, and Wright would be enough to get Manea and Olson from the A's?
Anthony Franco
3:31
I doubt it. Pache's aggressive approach seems to have knocked his prospect status just a bit. Contreras is still interesting but he hasn't done much at the MLB level so far and it's a little alarming to me that Atlanta extended TDA and signed Pina to kind of block him
The dude
3:32
Pretend you're the king of baseball.  What concession do you force each side to make in the CBA negotiations?
Anthony Franco
3:33
Ha, well my personal preferences are more aesthetic and structure of the game based than economic. The union and the league should be very concerned with, say, where the luxury tax ends up. That's important to me in an academic sense but I don't have any rooting interest on that
3:34
So like, I'd prefer to keep the playoff field at ten teams as it stands (although I'd make the Division Series seven games instead of five). Implement the double hook DH rule Jayson Stark (and others, I'm sure) have proposed to replace pitcher hitting, scrap the extra innings runner
3:35
But I don't think any of that stuff's happening, aside from perhaps going back to normal extra innings. Their incentives aren't aligned with mine
3:36
Oh, and I'd flip the draft order so that the non-playoff team with the best record finishes first. In addition to incentivizing tanking by teams, I think having the draft order inverse to record is just stupid from a fan perspective
3:37
I'm a Raiders fan with regards to the NFL. They're basically always eliminated by the final couple weeks of the regular season (although not this year, yet). And I'm always left watching their meaningless games hoping they win but knowing that rationally I should want them to lose so they can pick 13th instead of 16th in next year's draft
That's absurd
Joshua
3:38
Do you have a trade or two that you've come up with in your head that you think two teams should go ahead and do right now (well, at least after the lockout ends)? Thanks.
Anthony Franco
3:39
Steve sold me on the Kimbrel/Kiermaier swap he was pushing last month. Kimbrel and a 40 FV for Segura still interests me. My Pablo López/Alejandro Kirk hopes never materialized
3:40
Maybe something around Trevor Larnach and one of Bassitt or Manaea? The Twins probably wouldn't do it, but I'm discouraged enough by his 2021 struggles I think I might if I were in their position (while still thinking he'd be a good return for one year of a starter as part of the A's sell-off)
Brian cashman
3:41
Who should I target to bolster my rotation? Seems like I need a true number 2 behind Cole but options seem limited
Anthony Franco
3:43
Frankie Montas throws super hard, misses a ton of bats, and has had some success in the past (albeit not as much recently) at avoiding barrels and keeping the ball on the ground
That's obviously of outsized importance in Yankee Stadium
3:44
A bunch of teams are going to want that guy because he's really good, but he'd probably be at the top of the pref list (or at least alongside Luis Castillo) of potential attainable starting pitching targets for me
That's all I've got time for today
Thanks as always for the questions and for your support of the site!
3:45
You can reach me on Twitter @affranco10 during the week with other stuff
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