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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat With Anthony Franco
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Anthony Franco
2:00
Hey everyone, hope you're all doing well!
Or, as well as can be with MLB being a disaster right now
2:01
Appreciate your continued support of the site and questions over three months into this thing though
Let's get going
Guest
2:01
Saw the article from Kyle Farmer yesterday. What would it cost to get him? Maybe two guys in the 15-25 range of a teams system?
Anthony Franco
2:02
I think that's about right. He's already 31, more of a stopgap or utility type than a true regular but a capable enough player on both sides of the ball that teams could do worse than having him as their SS
2:03
So yeah, I think the Reds could land a couple lottery ticket types but not anyone near the top of a farm system
Ncaam
2:03
Who are your final four picks
Anthony Franco
2:04
Without hyperbole, I couldn't name a single college basketball player
2:05
That said, I'll fill out a bracket that amounts to little more than rolling dice. So, I'll have an (obviously wrong) answer to this in a couple weeks
Baylor's good right? Gonzaga?
Carlos Correa
2:05
non lockout question here, does some team actually pony up $300MM for me? There's no perfect fit for a team with open books now that the rangers and tigers are off the table. Sure, the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and Phillies all have money and a possible need, but it doesn't seem like any of them are going to hand out ANOTHER mega-contract. Given that, what are the chances I take a shorter deal with potential opt-outs and a high AAV. OR, do you think I get like a $270MM contract?
Anthony Franco
2:06
I do still think he's going to top $300MM. Your point about a lack of a perfect fit is well-taken, but I just think somebody's going to reverse their "maybe we don't actually want to spend top-of-the-market money on a shortstop" stance because Correa's so good
2:07
Broadly speaking, the guys at the top of the free agent class still get paid. I think Correa's better than Corey Seager (probably a majority opinion) and still expect him to beat Seager's $325MM, even if there's not an individual team I feel great about making that deal
Sockpirate
2:07
Anthony, it feels like the owners are more concerned with the bottom line than the game of baseball.  
is there any chance the anti-trust exemption can be addressed?  What would it take to remove it?
Anthony Franco
2:08
A Supreme Court ruling, basically
I don't think Congress is ever going to turn it over via legislation, since MLB has huge lobbying power. And lower courts can't overturn it, since the Supreme Court has upheld it time after time
2:09
So someone will have to run it up to SCOTUS and hope they reverse their century-old precedent on it. I think it's unlikely. For as often as they hint in dicta that the anti-trust exemption doesn't make a whole lot of sense, the Court has never shown any appetite for changing it
p
2:09
is there any chance Greinke comes to New York? seems like both teams could use him but he's kind of a quite dude so I'm not sure if he would want to come to NY
Anthony Franco
2:11
Yeah I don't know. On the one hand, it doesn't seem like a great fit given his struggles with social anxiety. On the other, he signed in Los Angeles in 2012 and that's not exactly a quiet, low-pressure enviornment
So I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility but I also wouldn't be surprised if he's already privately determined not to go there
JL
2:11
Are the O's a serious player for Carlos Correa?
Anthony Franco
2:11
No reason to believe they are
2:12
I think they make a ton of sense as a fit, but there haven't been any definitive links between the O's and Correa this winter and they've never spent like that on a player -- particularly not since they kicked off this rebuild
CASEY
2:12
Anthony, thank you and everyone at MLBTR for giving us something to read short of box scores.  Always appreciated.  Especially now.  But I did have a question, too.  What's to stop...say...the Red Sox from signing Carlos Correa to a minor league deal now?  Then, when the lockout is over, adding him to 40 roster, ripping up the minor league deal and paying him $300 million or whatever...Obviously, with the understanding in advance that this was going to happen.
Anthony Franco
2:13
Only minor league free agents can sign right now. That's guys who got outrighted off a 40-man and elected free agency or qualified for free agency based on the amount of years they've spent in the minors
2:14
Major league free agents (i.e. the guys who got the market after reaching six years of service time) are part of the union and can't talk to teams
Tim Wakefield
2:14
At this point, +/-105 games played this season? (for context, I looked at my Red Sox’s schedule, and they’d play 105 games if they’re first game was on June 1, with no cancellations, etc.)
Anthony Franco
2:14
Hmm yeah that feels like where I'd draw the line. I'd take the slight over but hope I'm incorrectly pessimistic
Joey
2:15
I understand that the players want a good deal and are willing to fight for it. But from cost-benefit-analysis perspective they're losing $20 million every day. That's an insane amount that it seems unlikely to make up in dollars gained by their CBT thresholds (seems safe to assume the lockout is going to last a few more weeks) and it also seems unlikely they're going to get that money back. So, from a financial standpoint, how does this make any sense for the players?
Anthony Franco
2:15
The union's going to fight for some form of compensation for the lost salary because the league unilaterally instituted the lockout and canceled the games
2:16
Whether they'll get anything, I don't know. Certainly doubt it'd be full pay. But I think they'd quibble with your premise that they're certainly losing all that money
To answer your question as it was asked, though, it's more of a long-term concern
2:17
Perhaps a strict cost-benefit analysis of "salary lost vs. raising the CBT thresholds another $8-10MM" wouldn't be worth the holdout
2:18
But setting the CBT where they do in this CBA has an effect on where it'll be set in the next CBA. A big reason why they're in this battle now is because the union wants a huge jump on the tax to compensate for the fact that they didn't push it forward much in each of the last two agreements
2:19
I think it's sort of analogous to how arbitration has compounding returns for players. Qualifying for Super Two is huge not only because you might make $2MM versus $600K in your 2-3 year of service, but because future arb increases are anchored on that higher starting point. I think the union sees the CBT the same way, if that makes sense
GBS42
2:19
Do you think there's any chance an agreement is reached in time for a 162-game season?  I know that would require Manfred to walk back his "games are cancelled" statement, but that would just be a bonus.
Anthony Franco
2:20
A chance? Yes. I think it's between 5-10% at this point but I wouldn't call that impossible
A's Fan
2:20
Would there be any modification to Ramon Laureano's length of suspension if 2022 is a shortened season?
Anthony Franco
2:21
Haven't heard about this one way or the other, but my guess would be no
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