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Trade Rumors Front Office Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:02
Hey folks, we'll get started in a few minutes. Just getting situated with my lunch.
Sully
12:04
10 Team AL-only keeper league.  Riley Greene is my only remaining trade chip.  Need HRs and SBs.  Got offered Altuve.  Looking for a sanity check that this trade isn't way off.
Brad Johnson
12:05
Seems reasonable to me, assuming Altuve's an upgrade on what you have
12:06
You'll eventually regret it if you have a long memory, but Altuve should be the better player for at least a couple more seasons
Guest
12:06
Standard Keeper League, 260 salary cap. Taj Bradley, Joe Ryan and Max Castillo (all would be at 5 next year) for Vlad , Jr who is at 61. I need hitting to make a run at title and other team is out of running. Is this a fair offer?
Brad Johnson
12:07
Honestly, it's extremely light imo. If they're open to this, jump on it.
12:08
If need be, you can probably double this offer and still profit.
Say It Ain't Soto
12:08
Who among the following options is the best bet as a long term keeper?  Only concerned about next year and onward (RoS doesn't matter to me), standard format except OBP instead of AVG - Francisco Alvarez, Gunnar Henderson, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Pepiot, Miguel Vargas.  Thanks for the chat!
Brad Johnson
12:09
Cross out the pitchers. Not only are they inherently less likely to hold value, these particular ones are probably more than 50% likely to wind up in the bullpen - perhaps after years of mediocre results as SP.
that latter outcome is more of a risk for Cabrera. I think the Dodgers already view Pepiot as a reliever they're keeping stretched out against need.
12:10
Personally, because of the OBP, I'd go for Gunnar who BA just rated the #1 prospect today. He's an OBP-league dream
Might have some early-career issues with batting average, but he'll always draw plenty of walks with his discipline
12:11
Alvarez and Vargas obviously have bright futures too.
Eddie
12:12
Howdy. Who do you prefer and why?  Elly DE LA Cruz or Esteury Ruiz?
Brad Johnson
12:13
Context might matter. Elly dlC is far more beloved by scouts and has massive ceiling. Ruiz runs the risk of being a backup outfield type whose fantasy skills will be in high demand when he happens to start.
12:14
Ruiz is one of the hardest players to evaluate right now because the range of plausible outcomes is anywhere between unusable and $30.
12:15
We talk about guys as high risk, high reward all the time, but it's rare for a player to be as extreme as Ruiz. And usually, these guys turn out like Keon Broxton or Michael Taylor.
GBS42
12:15
Brad, thanks for yet another chat.  NL-only, weekly rosters, 5x5 w/ SV+HD instead of SV.  Trying to decide which P to go with:  Lauer and Ashby worry me against STL because they're both lefties and FanGraphs had a recent post highlighting how well the Cards hit LHP.  Other options are Cobb @ SD and that potential powerhouse lineup, or I could use Robert Suarez or Trevor May for Holds.  Which one would you choose?
Brad Johnson
12:16
I'd use Ashby personally because of his ground ball tendencies. Let me confirm some things about the Cardinals lineup.
12:18
Ok, so STL does have one of the lowest ground ball rates in the league. And the very lowest vs LHP. So even Ashby isn't an ideal matchup. Still, I think he's clearly your best bet for overall accumulation.
12:19
If you think it's safer to protect your stats, I'd take another look at the waiver wire for holds options.
Mel Allen
12:19
Dane Dunning began last year as Texas' top pitching prospect. Since then, he's been wildly inconsistent. Granted, he's not an ace—but can we expect at least a durable Mike Torrez or Martin Perez type? Or is he headed for the bullpen if Texas ever finds starting pitching (something it hasn't done in my lifetime).
Brad Johnson
12:20
I think he's a serviceable innings eater and nothing more. I don't see traits that suggest it's worthwhile to convert him to relief.
12:21
He throws an 89-mph sinker as his main offering and has a four-pitch repertoire. He'll get passed around second-division clubs like a better Jordan Lyles.
Shelby
12:21
What’s the rehab status for Kyle Hendricks?  Is he expected back soon or will he be shut down?
Brad Johnson
12:22
I only know what's been publicly reported.
12:23
From what I can find - Cubs blogs seem to hate adblock - he has attempted to resume throwing but still feels discomfort.
12:24
I would guess he's closer to being shut down than returning. If he does return - probably not until September
Plum City
12:24
Will Bubba Thompson ever hit well enough or walk enough to put his speed to good use before Texas demotes him?
Brad Johnson
12:24
Probably not.
12:25
For those not familiar with Thompson, he's kind of like if Esteury Ruiz had Adam Dunn's whiff rate
12:26
It's a profile which should see in a Quad-A role for awhile - plenty of opportunities over the next half decade when injuries strike
Some of those guys eventually turn into an Adolis Garcia type.
I'd consider him more of a 30-team, keep everybody dynasty asset than anything we'll get value out of in 2022.
Being with you is like being lowe
12:26
Curious what your outlook is for Josh Lowe. Have held him in a keeper OBP league but can't tell if he has me fooled.
Brad Johnson
12:27
To be honest, I need to pump some sources and get fresh info.
My initial impression from years ago was a fourth outfielder with fantasy skills. Heading into this season (or maybe it was partway through last year), I amended that to first division starter with fantasy skills. Now... leaning fourth outfielder again.
12:28
I'll say this, he's much less risky than Ruiz (and Thompson).
12:29
But we're looking at an outcome more in the 1-3 WAR per 600 PA range which, for the Rays, is a backup.
Or, I should say it's a role player. They don't really have true backups too often.
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