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Trade Rumors Front Office Fantasy Chat with Brad Johnson: 9/19/22
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Brad Johnson
12:07
I think Steve sent this out as a 2:00pm ET chat, but it looks like we have a nice queue already so I'll get started in 10 minutes or so.
Guest
12:20
How would you rank Milwaukee's young OFs for next year - Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Esteury Ruiz?
Brad Johnson
12:20
Let's spend some time talking about Milwaukee outfielders.
12:21
First, the payroll side of things. LoCain is off the books after this season so the club *could* opt to add a free agent outfielder. Given their other constraints, this seems inefficient.
12:23
Hunter Renfroe is probably a non-tender or trade candidate at somewhere in the $11MM range. Matt Swartz's model can give us a better estimate over the winter.
So we're looking at 1-2 spots to fill, probably internally, with some flex at DH potentially as well.
12:25
Mitchell is already up and looks OK. He was at one point a fringe-Top 100 prospect, but the power and bat didn't develop as expected. He rounded big time this year by making frequent hard contact. But he's closer to a fourth outfielder than a building block starter as presently constructed. There's upside for 5-category production if a light bulb or two clicks.
12:26
From an irl perspective, I think Frelick is the best of this trio. This is the leadoff/Steven Kwan toolset. Discipline, high rates of contact, enough speed.
For fantasy purposes, probably painful in HR/RBI and helpful in the other 3 categories.
12:28
Ruiz is the one who, if he figures it out, could be a fantasy monster. The speed isn't AS blazing as his minor league numbers suggest (79 SB in 506 PA)
12:29
He posted really big numbers at all three minor league stops which usually implies an ability to stick in the Majors if not start. Ruiz is super volatile.
12:30
The fourth name not mentioned here is Jackson Chourio. He's on track to debut as a teenager in late 2023. I haven't yet seen him outside of scouting videos, but I haven't seen this much hype on a guy in ages.
Not even Wander and Vladito
Matteyt
12:30
Can we trust the hot hands?
Can we trust the hot hands? I'm down O'Neil in the finals of a H2H points league - are Jake McCarthy, Oscar Gonzalez or Elvis Andrus legit?
Brad Johnson
12:31
Andrus looks like he's more or less unchanged. Just hitting the high end of his outcome range after several years at the low end. Probably seeing it well or something.
Personally, I'm a McCarthy fan. He's steady and offers 5-category production.
12:33
The power isn't great, but it's good enough. Andrus has improbably hit for more power this season. I'd bet on McCarthy outperforming him ROS.
12:34
Gonzalez is a distant third choice IMO just because he's so exploitable as a hitter. He's almost an extreme ground ball hitter and has some of the worst discipline in the league. I swear he's succeeding because nobody's bothered to implement the scouting report. Pitch him out of the zone, he's an easy out.
RAGBRAI
12:34
Is Finnegan closing in Washington next year? I have him for $1 and wonder if he should be kept.
Brad Johnson
12:34
There's really no way to be sure as of today, but I think the answer is yes.
12:35
His stuff has stepped up this year so part of it will depend on retaining those gains.
He wasn't closer-caliber in the past. He is now.
12:36
Low-end closer to be clear.
There are worse ways to plan to spend $1.
I doubt they acquire a closer for 2023, and Hunter Harvey is the main internal competition.
Guest
12:37
Brad McCarty is from my hometown of Scranton, PA. Played high school football and baseball with his dad. Him and his brother, Joe are great kids. Have known them since they were babies.
Brad Johnson
12:37
I saw a ton of Joe in Durham. He was one of their mid-lineup regulars for a couple years.
Snoozy
12:37
The Angels are killing me with the way they are using Herget.  He did nothing but succeed while closing and now he's pitching the 7th.   I need those saves.  What gives?
Brad Johnson
12:38
I think they probably realize they're not going to be comfortable with him as a high leverage reliever so they might as well try out other pitchers.
12:39
Sure he's been effective this year, but the stuff just isn't there to support closing or even really working in close games.
12:40
More specifically, he's a soft-tossing right-hander who leans on a couple decent breaking balls. They're not high-whiff pitches. He doesn't induce soft contact or extreme rates of grounders or flies.
12:42
That's not the profile of a successful reliever. I can't think of anybody who's been consistent year-to-year without a strength of some kind.
Guest
12:42
Back injuries hampered both his speed and power. Joe is in Japan these days.
Man the Gunnars
12:42
I’m in an H2H final this week against an opponent with clearly better hitters and clearly inferior pitching. He’s a near-certainty to beat me
I’m in an H2H final this week against an opponent with plainly superior hitting and inferior pitching (relative to my roster). Im 99% sure he’ll beat me in steals and 90% he’ll beat me in homers, but I’m hoping to take 2 of 4 between runs, RBIs, average, and OPS. Am I better off (in a utility spot) with Rodolfo Castro (a huge factor in winning my semi) or Gunnar Henderson? Castro is on my roster, Henderson is not, and I have four moves remaining.
Brad Johnson
12:44
Henderson is the percentage play, but the margins aren't huge if you want to reserve moves for some other purpose.
I'll brb, need to restock on water.
12:45
ok, let's be thorough and pull up their schedules
12:47
Castro has 6 against Nestor, Severino, Stroman, Assad, Miley, and Sampson. That's three reasonably friendly matchups.
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