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Trade Rumors Front Office MLB Chat With Steve Adams
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Steve Adams
1:32
Greetings all! Sorry for the lack of chat last week. Anthony is on vacation through the end of this week. I'm stepping in for him here. We'll get going in a half hour. Already a nice stock of questions in the queue, but feel free to submit some more in advance if you prefer! We'll talk soon.
1:57
Hello! Let's get going
Eddie Boy
1:57
Shane Baz....worth holding onto in a keeper league?
Steve Adams
1:59
It depends on the format to an extent. If it's a dynasty setup where you're keeping your whole roster, then yeah. If you can keep people relative to the position you drafted them, and you've got Baz as like a 20th rounder this year, 15th rounder in 2025, and so on, then you could certainly make a case.

If it's just a straight "keep your best X players" and you need the roster spot, I'd lean more toward him being expendable. The talent is outstanding, but the injury risk is substantial and he's probably going to be innings-capped both this year and next whenever he comes back.
richard from Tommy Boy
1:59
Yikes. Reds outfield D looks bad. They had to have gone after Duvall and Michael Taylor, right? I get Atlanta if Duvall wants another ring. Is Pittsburgh that much more appealing for playing time reasons?
Steve Adams
2:01
Talking Duvall out of Atlanta would've been hard. Beyond the fact that they're a clear World Series contender, he's had multiple stints there, including the 2021 World Series run. He had to be thrilled to land back there.

On MAT, it probably comes down to a matter of poor timing. The Reds had interest, but they didn't have the playing time to offer that Pittsburgh did. Literally one day after Taylor and the Pirates agreed to terms, TJ Friedl broke his wrist. That could've been enough to push the Reds to match/top the Pirates' offer, but it's one of those bad luck happenstance events that just didn't go their way
Padre Jonathan
2:01
So ... just Profar? Really?
Steve Adams
2:05
I'm as surprised as you are. I assume that when the Padres brought Profar back for $1MM (Feb. 12), they didn't expect names like Duvall, Taylor, etc. to be available for $3-4MM. They didn't sign until about five weeks later.

The Padres clearly love what Profar brings to the clubhouse, but outside of 2022 and the final three weeks of the shortened 2020 season, he's just been a bad hitter. And he's not a good defender. I don't get the infatuation and think they'd be well served to bring in Pham, pushing Profar to the bench.

We'll see. Perhaps that's still in the cards. Someone in the chat on the site yesterday speculatively asked if the Padres are waiting until Machado's good to play 3B full-time before signing Brandon Belt or Pham. I suppose I can it with Belt, but as far as Pham goes, I'd add him immediately and play him over Profar -- hot start or not for Profar.
The JP
2:05
Which JP is the better pitcher: JP France or JP Sears? (I realize France will likely get more wins, but I'm asaking about underlying skills.)
Steve Adams
2:07
I think they're both fifth starters, but I'd go with Sears for better long-term numbers. The home park is a huge advantage, and he also misses bats at a higher level. Even looking beyond the raw strikeout rate (which favors Sears 21.9% to 17.4%), Sears had an 11.3% swinging-strike rate to France's 9.1%
Sears needs to improve his slider or find a different breaking pitch, because he's been able to neutralize righties better than most lefties, but fellow lefties have teed off against him.
2:09
France had the nice run last year, but he had some BABIP luck and, more notably, an 81% strand rate through his first 15 starts, which is too high to sustain over a long period of time.
Jorge78
2:09
Did the Cubs pay a penalty for re-signing Bellinger?  He turned down a QA from the Cubs but he went back.  Isn't it a wash?  Thanks!
Steve Adams
2:11
They paid a penalty in the sense that they'd have landed a comp pick at the end of the first round if Bellinger signed elsewhere. They didn't have to forfeit one of their own picks or anything from their international bonus pool, but there's a theoretical cost of them not getting that pick from him signing elsewhere -- and that's gone for good now, as if Bellinger opts out (which seems likely), they can't make another qualifying offer.
Players can only receive one QO in their career.
TheBeatlesShow
2:12
Do you think the Angels are now in an unofficial rebuild...Keep Trout because no one will take him because of his recent injury history and big contract but, otherwise gut the team and hope to do what the Orioles & Astros have done?
Steve Adams
2:13
I don't think so, no. I don't think owner Arte Moreno has an appetite for that. Their GM, Perry Minasian, was quick to announce early in the winter that he wasn't going into a rebuild. If the Angels were rebuilding, there'd have been talk of teams trying to pry away Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, Taylor Ward, perhaps Carlos Estevez and Brandon Drury.
The Angels also probably wouldn't have spent more than $50MM on relievers this winter.
2:14
That said, I also don't think the Angels have a clear focus or plan. There's a massive disconnect between Minasian saying "We're going to be aggressive" this winter.... and then signing a bunch of relievers.

Sam Blum at The Athletic asked Minasian about that late last week (or maybe earlier this week), and the Q&A is well worth reading for Halos fans, even if it's probably going to feel infuriating
2:16
Minasian more or less says he feels they were aggressive where they needed to be and didn't want to deprive young players of playing time. That doesn't explain low-upside deals for Aaron Hicks, leaving Jo Adell in limbo, nor does it explain the lack of any real move to improve the starting staff, the aversion to bringing in a notable bat to mix in between first, DH, etc.
It was a tough offseason for them, and while they're not rebuilding, they're also not really going for it. They're just kind of idling. It sucks for Angels fans.
Lets Play Two
2:17
Is Tanner Scott in danger of losing closing job?
Steve Adams
2:18
All those walks are ugly, and his spring was brutal, but Scott was genuinely one of the best relievers in baseball last year. I don't think  an ugly spring showing and three tough innings early on is going to drop him out of the ninth inning.
Guest
2:19
Hi. I would love  for the Yanks to sign Soto long term but does it make sense to have him and Cole and Judge all making big money? I worry what the rest of the roster construction would be like with three guys taking up much of the payroll amount before the luxury tax ? I am guessing the Yankees would not want to be paying it every year
Brian Cashman
2:19
What does a Juan Soto contract look like? Asking for a friend.
thebeatlesshow
2:19
hey Steve...and thanks.  Considering the state of the market during the last off season, any chance that $220M for three years and an opt out after two gets it done for Soto and the Yanks??
Steve Adams
2:19
Several Soto questions queued up so I'll just post them all.
2:21
I would be fascinated to see if Soto would be interest in shattering the AAV record with what would be a $73.33MM AAV on that deal. I generally am amazed at the lack of meaningful advancement in AAV for major stars, though Scherzer and Verlander have managed to crack the $40MM on short-term deals and Judge got there on his nine-year pact. I have to think there'd be some temptation, knowing that with two typical seasons, he could pocket something like $146MM and then head back to the market.

HOWEVER
2:23
I also wonder if the Yankees would ever offer that. They're going to be luxury payors for the foreseeable future, and they already have $190MM in luxury obligations next season. That's before Anthony Rizzo's option (a net $11MM call that I can easily see them picking up) or Lou Trivino's $5MM option.

That also doesn't include arb raises for Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt, Trent Grisham, Jose Trevino, JT Brubaker, Victor Gonzalez or Scott Effross.
And that's before replacing Soto, Verdugo, Holmes, Kahnle, Loaisiga and Ferguson who'll all be free agents.
2:24
Even just the in-house guys probably push them to something like $225MM in luxury obligations. Even if they go in-house/low-cost for most of their replacements (e.g. Peraza taking over for Torres), they'll still need to make SOME outside additions.
2:25
There's a real scenario where most of that Soto contract is going to cost them close to double. Are they willing to pay $100MM+ for a single season of Soto? I kind of doubt that.
Edd
2:25
Has Jimmy Nelson  retired? He hasn't pitched in the majors since 2021. Tragic how his career was derailed by an injury.
Steve Adams
2:27
He hasn't formally announced anything of the sort, but he's been sidelined by injuries for upwards of three years now. It'd be hard to blame him if he were questioning whether he wants to keep going.

It's a shame, because Nelson was a super talented starter and showed flashes of being a potential powerhouse reliever with the Dodgers, but his body just hasn't held up. I always find myself rooting for guys like this, so hopefully he gets another healthy run and is at least able to walk away on his own terms rather than be forced out of the game by health troubles.
Doug S
2:27
Would any team other than Washington have Patrick Corbin on their roster? Why do the Nats? If they must give him a roster spot, couldn’t they at least put him in the bullpen?
Steve Adams
2:29
If they'd signed him to the contract he's on, yeah I believe several teams would just feel obligated to stick with him and ride it out.

As for the Nats rostering him, they kind of have to. For whatever reason, they just completely ignored the rotation all winter. I wrote about this maybe a month ago or so in a Front Office piece. I genuinely don't understand their offseason.

There's such minimal depth behind the "top" five of MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, Corbin, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. You hope Cade Cavalli will contribute eventually, but he'll be capped with his innings.
2:31
Depth guys like DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge, Mitchell Parker and Spenser Watkins might factor in, but asking any of them other than Rutledge, who walked 13% of his opponents in AAA last year, to take on a meaningful role is a reach.
2:32
The Nats already have one of the game's ugliest rotations, and that's with everyone healthy. Gray is a massive regression candidate for me. And if either Gray or Gore gets hurt, that group is going to look disastrous.

So... I guess they're stuck letting Corbin take his licks. But I don't understand why they put themselves in this position. Hell, the Nationals didn't even place a waiver claim this winter. How?
Thank you for the chat!
2:32
Should CWS be disappointed with their development of the young core (Moncada, Vaughn, Eloy, Kopech, etc.)? Injuries and/or mediocre performance seemingly across the board. Been some flashes like Robert last year but hardly the results you'd hope for.
Steve Adams
2:35
Yeah, I think it's more than fair to be disappointed by it. I wouldn't include Robert in there, as he's been excellent when healthy -- just hurt a lot.

But Kopech's lack of command is glaring. Vaughn isn't anywhere near the offensive force they envisioned and hits the ball on the ground way too much.  Jimenez is kind of in the Robert bucket ... often looks great but more often looks healthy, and the glove is probably worse than anyone anticipated. Moncada is maybe the most frustrating of them all; I thought he was ticketed for stardom after 2019, and he looked great in 2021, but the overall numbers haven't lined up with the clear, immense talent he's oozing.
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