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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat: Winter Meetings 2.0!
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Tim Dierkes
8:49
Greetings from Day 2 of the Winter Meetings in Dallas!  The hot stove is officially lit, with the Yankees signing Max Fried, the Rangers bringing Nathan Eovaldi back, and the Blue Jays surprisingly adding Andres Gimenez.  Once again I'm here with Steve Adams to take subscriber questions before we hit the lobby for an hour.
Notsohotlanta
8:54
Any hint of Atlanta action ?
Steve Adams
8:54
I don
Ha
Whoops
8:56
I don't expect the Braves to make a huge free agent splash -- it's not Anthopoulos' style and they're so deep into the luxury sphere that one big signing puts them over. I think you're looking smaller-scale free agents or trades.

In general, I will say we hear people riffing on all kinds of things around the venue over the course of the day, and the Braves have not been an oft-mentioned team at all.
Tim Dierkes
8:56
Not exactly a Braves development, but they had interest in Eovaldi and he's off the board.  I wonder if they're feeling some sticker shock on FA SP prices as most people are.
The Boo Jays
8:56
As a Jays fan what is going on? You have 20 guys in your system that are glove for second baseman that can play multiple positions... Why did you just trade for an overpaid one? If you don't get Bregman/santander now just throw away the team
Tim Dierkes
8:57
I was surprised to see them make a big move for an all-defense, average bat (or less) type of player.  Steve and others have sold me on Gimenez's value, and I don't think they have 20 guys like him, but it sure doesn't help the offense.
Steve Adams
8:58
I don't look at Gimenez as an overpaid glove-first 2B. I look at him as a slam-dunk shortstop who's been playing shortstop for ... I don't really know why. It's not a huge value necessarily, but I don't think they gave up a ton and do think there's surplus value on the deal, even if not an overwhelming amount. Spoke to one team person -- not from TOR or CLE, to be clear -- who agreed that there's surplus value on the deal. I think Gimenez gives them a long-term option at short if they finally move Bichette off the position or just play him at 2B in '25 and slide him over to SS in '26
8:59
The glove is so good that there's a 2-3 WAR floor on Gimenez, and if he hits at even an average level it jumps another win or so. When he really, truly hit in 2022 he looked like a potential star.
Phillies Phan
8:59
Do you think it would be worth it for a fan to attend the Winter Meetings??
Tim Dierkes
9:00
Yes, I think it's a pretty well-kept secret.  If you are a general MLB fan and you don't need to necessarily see/meet players from one team, you would be impressed by who you will see walking around the lobby.  Plus you can say hi to Ken Rosenthal, Jeff Passan, and Jon Heyman.
Steve Adams
9:01
Especially if you're the outgoing type who doesn't mind just walking up and saying hi. Oftentimes people are more willing to chat than you might think, and you'll probably just get a kick out of seeing some former/current players roaming around and chatting people up. Nelson Cruz has been taking a bunch of selfies with people around the lobby. Jorge Polanco was live-streaming his walk into the hotel today when Tim and I were walking in behind him, ha
Tim Dierkes
9:01
A partial list of random current/former players here includes Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Kevin Pillar, Jorge Polanco, Eric Davis, Dick Allen and Dave Parker of course, Adam Jones, and probably some I'm forgetting.  Plus every TV personality and writer.  You can also see some GMs if that interests you, not that they'd want to stop and chat with a random person.
Joaquin Andujar
9:01
Anything new on Crochet? Where do you think he'll wind up and what do you think the White Sox will get in return?
Tim Dierkes
9:02
I actually can report to you that when I was waiting by the elevator today, I saw Chris Getz and David Stearns chatting.  It could've been about hot dinner spots in Dallas, but the two men spoke today.
Steve Adams
9:04
I think we both answered on the spot yesterday -- I don't think there's any kind of favorite, but the Padres are a pretty luxury-challenged team right now with more payroll questions than usual, and AJ Preller can't like sitting on the sidelines while all these deals are getting closed. Build it around Leodalis De Vries and go from there. (That is a total shot in the dark, by the way; no one knows where he's going... you ask five people here and get five different answers since everyone's just guessing right now)
Birdfan
9:04
Should the Orioles just pay Burnes 8 yeats at
Tim Dierkes
9:04
If Fried got eight years at 31, it follows that Burnes should get 9 or 10 at 30.  Unless you like the argument that Fried's AAV was artificially reduced and that's why he got eight.
I think Burnes is leaving the Orioles though
Steve Adams
9:04
Tim's higher on what the Fried deal means for Burnes than I am, but I do think 8-9 years at 250ish in play in a way that I would not have believed a month ago.
9:05
But agreed that it's not going to happen in Baltimore.
Thank you for the chat!
9:05
Yanks look ripe for some trades. What bigger contracts that are productive players but maybe not market value look better in today's market (against what a Bregman or similar may get)? Would a Stroman for Cronenworth make sense?
Tim Dierkes
9:07
A few bigger contracts but decent players could include Hoskins, Arraez, or Candelario, but those are pretty far from Plan A for the Yankees.
Steve Adams
9:07
The Yankees already have so much on the long-term books, and taking on the bulk of that (still-weird/confusing) Cronenworth deal just doesn't work. It adds a notable luxury hit in the long term for a player I don't think  helps THAT much. The Padres would probably love that deal.

I think Arenado to the Yankees makes sense. I know Yanks fans won't want to hear that, but he's owed like 3/64 when you factor in what the Rockies are covering. There's some buzz on Yankees/Christian Walker ... building a super-infield defense (Walker, Volpe, Arenado) and adding a premium ground-ball arm like Fried ... it makes some sense. (Total speculation, but Tanner Scott is the power arm/ground-ball poster boy of the model of reliever the Yankees like, too)
Kate
9:08
Any news about Bregman's market? I'm a little surprised the Mets aren't viewed as a bigger suitor for him
Tim Dierkes
9:08
The position player market has only moved a little bit.  We had Adames and of course Soto, but it seems like it hasn't shaken loose yet.  I do feel like the Red Sox or Blue Jays are higher on Bregman than the Mets, but that's just a feeling.
Astronomical prices
9:09
Why do you think the SP is so hot and prices are so high?
Tim Dierkes
9:10
I find that to be somewhat inexplicable so far.  My guess would be just the nature of the suitors this year.  That type of thing is really hard to predict year to year.  I was saying to Steve that if 2023 Jordan Montgomery were dropped into this market he'd have gotten his $125-150MM.
Steve Adams
9:11
We were talking at dinner about the difficulty in predicting the overall strength of market. It's hard not to overreact to the year prior. The 2022-23 offseason was strong; it stood to reason 2023-24 would be similar but we saw very little spending beyond the Dodgers' flurry. We were probably a bit gunshy on contract predictions because of that, and now it's the wild west for starters.

To Tim's point, the nature of the bidders matters. The Mets are all-in to win under Cohen in a way they weren't last offseason. The Red Sox decided to try again (though we thought that last winter). There's some desperation in Toronto. Hell even the A's are spending because  the league threatened to take away their revenue-sharing (...again).
Dan Sanchez
9:11
So what in the world are the Orioles going to do with Fried and Eovaldi off the board and Burnes getting priced into a different orbit? Will they actually trade Mayo for Crochet? Swing a guy like Valdez or Cease? Castillo? Or do they end up with some gross 4-year deal for Manaea?
Tim Dierkes
9:12
I don't expect the Orioles to trade Mayo.  I think he's just too good to be traded in general and two years of Crochet isn't enough.  I do think there are probably a good 5-6 options that aren't that are palatable if not exciting.  Like trading for Jesus Luzardo or something.
Steve Adams
9:14
The Orioles seem either irrationally confident in their ability to improve fringe rotation guys or pretty hamstrung by even the new ownership group. I have a hard time figuring out what's happening with their pitching acquisitions (or lack thereof). When they got Burnes last year, I thought "finally -- now who else are they going to get?" I expected them to be all in on Cease when his market surged up a second time in late March, and they didn't make it happen.

In general, they seem far more confident on the arms they have in house than I would be.
Guest
9:14
As a retired CPA, I used to be good at math, so I am confused how $218 million for 8 years is $31 million a year.  I get less than $28 million.
Tim Dierkes
9:15
I didn't explain that well.  I meant that if Fried's true market value was a seven-year deal at $31MM per year (217 total), then one could argue that he essentially gave away the eighth, fairly worthless year for free to allow the Yankees to have a lower CBT hit.
Steve Adams
9:15
And, conveniently, to nudge past David Price's $217MM guarantee, which was the previous record for a left-handed pitcher. It's a nominal record, but hey, it's one they can stake a claim to for awhile now.
Sad Sox
9:15
Is the impression so far that the Red Sox are once again throwing relative pennies at these guys? After such massive talk it seems like last offseason all over again. Watching every big name get snapped up again is excruciating.
Tim Dierkes
9:17
The Red Sox are trying much harder than they have in recent years.  I know that may not mean much, but I do think it will result in some pretty big contracts.  Getting to $700MM for Soto is actually pretty crazy.  I don't like the Fried deal at all and would have bowed out too.  I suppose they missed on Snell and Adames too, but we still have Burnes and Bregman out there.
Predictions are hard to do
9:17
You guys are coming in way low on free agent signings, do you think this trend continues or will you finally get a few right?
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