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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat: Winter Meetings 2.0!
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Steve Adams
9:18
Kikuchi signed for exactly what Tim predicted ... before I talked him down from it :)
Tim Dierkes
9:18
That is fair criticism, but we did do well on Snell and Kikuchi.  Fair to say several of these pitchers blew our projections out of the water though.  It seems like real movement in the market that I don't think anyone saw coming.
Steve Adams
9:19
In general, early contracts always tend to beat expectations, though not by this margin. It's a much more bullish market -- especially for starters -- than anyone reasonably expected. We were light and there's no getting around that, but I feel a bit better about being wrong when the entire industry seems pretty surprised by it.

Plus, we've been making predictions for more than 10 years. We've been wrong a lot. That's the nature of these things.
Mac
9:19
Any chance the Mets will go after Luis Robert Jr? They're pretty weak at CF...
Tim Dierkes
9:20
The match makes plenty of sense.  We know the two teams have been talking about Crochet, so logically Robert's name would have come up too.
Adam Steves
9:21
Teams think Bregman is a product of the Crawford boxes, right?  It's gotta be Boston or back to Houston, who else?
Tim Dierkes
9:21
The Blue Jays' interest in Bregman seems real.  The Mets still make sense.  Yankees too.
Steve Adams
9:22
Bregman hit .276/.323/.433 on the road this season and is a career .275/.369/.482 hitter away from Houston
He's basically every bit as good at home as on the road in his career as a whole
9:23
Houston, Boston, Toronto (my pick), Mets if they don't re-sign Alonso. Yankees. There's plenty of teams who could get in there. I don't think they're going to go that big, but I do think the Royals could quietly be on the periphery
Hot stove
9:23
What do we think about Bobby Miller, Lux, and a prospect (Cartaya?) for Arenado and Helsley?
Steve Adams
9:24
Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes pretty much said "I'm not trading for Arenado" without saying it earlier today when he said Max Muncy will be his third baseman next year.
9:25
The Dodgers trading for Helsley, sure, I can see that. But I don't Lux and his two years of control would be in there. Cartaya's stock is down in general. So is Miller's for that matter, but for one year of Helsley, he'd still be a nice pull
Doubt the Dodgers are anxious to trade him for one year of a reliever though
thebeatlesshow
9:25
If you're the Yanks, do you go for one year of Tucker or multiple years of Santander?  and does the Fried signing close the door on them getting much needed upgrades to their lineup?  (Thanks and Enjoy yourselves, guys.)
Tim Dierkes
9:26
I'm not sure Steve agrees, but in general I just do not see the Astros trading Tucker to the Yankees.  I do not think signing Fried closes the door on major position player additions, and in fact I expect multiple.
Steve Adams
9:27
Yeah, Tim is pretty against the idea of HOU and NYY trading in general when they've been such bitter ALCS rivals. I think if the Yankees were willing to put the right offer out there, of course they do it. But the Yankees would probably only meet the ask if they were confident they could extend Tucker, and now that he's a year from free agency I just have a hard time seeing that.
Black Hills Mud Hens
9:27
Is the Fried contract rate and term (27.25 million for 8 years) indicative of the cost for Tigers to extend Skubal?
Tim Dierkes
9:28
I just think Skubal is too good to not get $300MM.  I think I threw out 8/250 before all this SP craziness, which I would revise upward.  But given that Skubal has two arb years left, something in the low 200s isn't an offensive offer.
9:29
My impression was that the Tigers did not come close, and I'd guess that they're now even less likely to sign him.
Steve Adams
9:29
He's also a Boras-represented Cy Young-winning superstar, so the notion of him signing an extension right now seems ... unlikely.
Scott S
9:29
Does Luis Robert get traded? His contract looks cheap compared to the FA
Tim Dierkes
9:30
I feel that keeping Robert until the deadline makes much more sense.  We haven't really seen a ton of position player deals yet, but it's true that CF are scarce and he'd get more money in FA than he has on his contract, even coming off a bad season.
Steve Adams
9:30
I'm of the mind they should hold him into the season and try to trade him if he has even a good six weeks or so to begin the year. Showing his health and productivity would be immense for his trade value, and the risk of him diminishing it isn't great since I don't think his value is all that high right now.
RR
9:30
What’s your take, as far as personal philosophies and industry attitudes, on a player like Seiya not wanting to DH?
Tim Dierkes
9:31
I need to catch up on this story but it seems that Joel Wolfe kind of perhaps not on purpose blew up the Seiya thing a bit more than reality.
I don't blame a 30-year-old guy who was a good fielder in Japan having the pride to not want to be a full-time DH.  On the other hand, you gotta stop dropping flyballs dude.
9:32
Chatted with Patrick Mooney on this today and he suggested Seiya doesn't quite feel as good as his numbers look, if that makes sense. It was an old school statement but I could see where he was coming from.
Steve Adams
9:32
Yeah, I think him saying "he wouldn't have signed somewhere as a primary DH" is not the same as saying "He won't DH for the Cubs."

Broadly speaking though, I see nothing wrong with having some pride as Tim just said. The defense wasn't pretty, but believing you can do better and putting in the work to do so -- I mean, why wouldn't you want your player to say, "Hey no way I can do this" rather than shrug and say "Works for me"
Have that chip on your shoulder!
Thank you for the chat!
9:33
Who are the players you'd be trying to take advantage to move/offload in a market like this? Like is DeGrom tradable right now in contrast to these SP offers?
Tim Dierkes
9:33
The obvious one to me is Jordan Montgomery.  That one year and $22.5MM (I think) is starting to look a bit better.  Similar with Stroman.
9:34
That said, the SP who have gotten paid this winter were coming off good years.  I don't think the inflation will be uniform where bad pitchers are getting a 20% boost.
Steve Adams
9:34
Echo all of that. Will say though, the Twins are probably looking at Chris Paddack's $7.5MM salary (that they don't really want) and thinking, "Wait, is this a bargain now?" Haha
Brad
9:34
Quiet and no real rumors on Rays. Is playing in a minor league stadium next year hampering any FA talk (Joc works well here) or are they focused on trading pitching for OFs
Steve Adams
9:35
(Jeffrey Springs, to add another SP deal that looks pretty darn OK right now)
Tim Dierkes
9:35
My answer to that is: yes.  They are a less desirable FA target, but getting a starting catcher was a major goal and they did that.  The Rays are always quietly in trade talks and I'm almost certain they'll trade an SP.  They are probably very popular right now.
Steve Adams
9:37
Yeah, Littell and Springs are looking pretty appealing right now. It's a good time to have a bunch of affordable starting pitchers. (Convenient moment to sneak in my nearly-every-chat mention that the Cardinals should be shopping Erick Fedde hard.)

In general, the Rays are always going to be more trade than FA, as we've seen. Jansen at $8.5MM isn't nothing -- especially for them
Jor
9:37
Brett Baty plus ?? to Tampa for a starter?  What value does BB have? Thanks!
Steve Adams
9:39
I don't think the Rays, specifically, are a great match just because they're pretty committed to Caminero at third base -- understandably. But the Brewers, Astros, Jays, Mariners and plenty of other clubs would love an affordable possible everyday option at third base. There's absolutely a market for Baty, and while his stock isn't what it was, I do think the Mets could get some big league bullpen or outfield help there.
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