You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 6/30/25
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
2:18
Good afternoon! Sorry to start a bit later than usual today. Schedule moved around a bit with Darragh having a well-deserved day off. We'll get going at 3:30pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.
3:30
Good afternoon! Let's get underway
El Chupacabra
3:30
If the Royals were to trade Seth Lugo today, how much more - or less - would the return likely be vs. if they waited until the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
3:33
I don't think the return would be materially different. You could say the acquiring team might be forced to give up more to compensate for the extra month of control, but there'd also be fewer teams bidding, which could impact the price as well. The extent to which those offset each other can really only be theorized upon.

For what it's worth, I also don't expect the Royals to trade Lugo. They're intent on contending, and GM JJ Picollo was recently quoted on record when discussing how important back-to-back playoff appearances would be.

Further, as I often say, player options/opt-outs are so hard to navigate in trade talks. Eventually we'll see a prominent player with an opt-out at season's end traded, but these guys never really move in actuality. The team trading for Lugo would have to know he's either going to pitch well and opt out or that he'd get hurt and/or see his performance tank and forgo the out... thus saddling them with an unwanted salary on the 2026 books.
3:35
That makes it really hard to agree on prospects to be exchanged in the deal, as the Royals will want to market him like a playoff-caliber starter but the acquiring team knows that if he bombs, they're essentially taking on a bad contract. Pricing in that downside makes the trade less appealing for Kansas City. And, again, the Royals probably don't really want to trade Lugo in the first place.
Stockholm, AZ
3:35
What are the Diamondbacks gonna do? That was a crap series against Miami, and now they’re under .500. Season beyond rescue? I had such high hopes..
Steve Adams
3:38
I just have a hard time seeing them wind up in genuine contention with Carroll out, Burnes out, and Zac Gallen pitching more like Zack Godley. Even if this iteration of the D-backs got to the postseason, could they feel good about a playoff rotation of this version of Gallen and Merrill Kelly leading the way, followed by one of Pfaadt or E-Rod? And without Justin Martinez or AJ Puk in the bullpen? It just feels like a soft reset (trading Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, etc.) is kind of inevitable to me.
RoxTalks
3:38
Does the Rockies' nepotism hiring of Monfort's son to be executive VP basically ensure this team will be bad forever? It is extremely difficult to continue to support this team. Cannot believe the league allows stuff like this.
Steve Adams
3:39
Dick Monfort's sons both already had prominent roles in the organization. Walker being made the EVP on the business side is far less concerning to me than Sterling Monfort being the scouting director for the past three years.
Alex Anthopoulus
3:39
I made this question 2 months ago about Albie's decision on his 7 million option for 2026 and because he has a 4 million buy out it was a no brainer to pick it up. Fast forward today I think even with this small net decision of 3 million, the Braves have to seriously consider to let Ozzie go. What do you think?
Steve Adams
3:40
Even if the Braves want to move on, someone would be willing to roll the dice on Albies at that price and he could be traded.
RAGBRAI
3:41
With the trade deadline do you assume with the uncertainty of many teams that most trades won’t start rolling in until the 29th and after? What will be the 31st like? Hectic or somewhat  manageable for you guys.
Steve Adams
3:43
There's always a handful of teams that don't really pick a lane until the 24 to 96 hours before the deadline. Old example but one that's top of mind since I just listened to a Dave Dombrowski interview where he was talking about the 2015 Tigers (when they traded David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and others) -- they basically didn't decide to sell until that morning. That type of last-minute decision making is even more prominent in today's game.

That does make deadline day more hectic for us, but we'll have 5-6 guys working that day to help balance things out.
Frank Anthony
3:43
I understand the situation is fluid and therefore hard to predict, but do you think the Twins have a deadline like last year's, or do you think they'll be more active? If more active, will it be as a buyer or seller? Or will they try to thread the needle and do sone of each? Thanks for doing the chat, btw.
Steve Adams
3:45
The Twins generally aren't all that active when they buy or sell. Payroll is probably tighter this year than most others, since ownership gave the greenlight to a few late-season FA additions (Bader, France, Coulombe) and the group is still pretty middling in the wake of a collapse for what had been one of the most productive pitching staffs in the game from mid-April through early June.

I can see them moving Bader, Coulombe, Chris Paddack and Willi Castro if they fall a ways back, since they're all free agents and would all get varying levels of interest. If they're around .500, I doubt they'd do much more than add a reliever, both because they haven't shown much aggression at deadlines past and because I doubt ownership is keen on adding a bunch more to the payroll.
DrDave
3:45
I've been offered Yelich for the injured Carroll.  Currently in first place.   Yelich contract expiring and Carroll had 1 year left.  Do I take the bait?
Steve Adams
3:48
There's more context at play here that I don't have -- what's the rest of your OF depth like... how many in the league ... mixed league or NL-only... scoring, etc -- but in general I would welcome the opportunity to add a year of Carroll if you have any sort of outfield depth. Yelich is hardly a lock to stay healthy himself.

If you're the side that already has Carroll, I would probably hold unless you're desperate for OF help, no one's active in the trade market, and the waiver wire is barren.

Carroll is just so good all around.
Zack Godley
3:48
Wow, what did I ever do to you?
Steve Adams
3:49
Hey Zack Godley was a good pitcher for a few years! I probably shouldn't have taken the cheap shot, haha. I just saw the Zac G / Zack G / Diamondbacks parallel and couldn't hold up haha
Re: Stockholm
3:50
Arizona has no 3B healthy behind Suarez nor arms in AAA. They literally can’t afford to trade their only valuable pieces away
Steve Adams
3:51
That's only true if you're playing for this season. They're 11 back in the division and 5 back in the Wild Card. I'd argue that if they fall much further back, it's sort of malpractice not to move Kelly, Suarez, Gallen, and any other rentals I'm blanking on.
Grichuk!
Plus we don't know how long Jordan Lawlar will be out exactly, but if it's six weeks, then they need to cover like two weeks with a 3B stopgap before they can turn third over to him.
Funny with the money
3:52
NHL just made the Anti-Ohtani (and everyone else) rule against deferred money. Obvs MLB isn’t strong enough as a brand to do the same, but can you see a world where the rule changes to hit teams with the luxury tax in each year of the deal where they are paying a player? So for Ohtani, LA would only be hit for $2M in 2025 but in 2035 it’d be $68M? Seems fairer than using a formula that assumes best case scenario about inflation, no?
Steve Adams
3:53
No. Both the owners and players want the deferred money setup. It lets players secure larger guarantees and reach artificial milestones, and it lets teams kick the can down the road on some of their significant investments. The only people who seem to hate it are a vocal subset of MLB fans.
The Willies of SF
3:54
The Giants need a RH outfielder to platoon with Yaz. Who would be their best option (s) and who might they have to give up?
Steve Adams
3:54
I touched on this in more depth in last week's mailbag!
Brewer Fan
3:55
Looks like the Brewers are calling up Anthony Seigler, anything you can tell me about this guy? Surely the next Cal Raleigh I assume. Also, seeing speculation that it means Contreras is finally going on the IL, probably smart to get him healed fully eh?
Steve Adams
3:57
Catcher/infielder who switch-hits with huge plate discipline. Interesting guy. He's a switch-thrower! He throws RH playing catcher/infield, but in his couple games as a minor league outfielder, he switched to throwing left-handed.

Better bench option than Andruw Monasterio right now, in my view. I like having a versatile third catcher along these lines. Curious to see what kind of role he has and if he can produce at all. I assume he'll walk ... whether he hits, less convinced. He didn't get to AAA until his age-26 season, but the batted-ball metrics in Nashville are pretty good.
Alan53
3:57
Are we finally ready to acknowledge that the Cardinals are GOOD--and that their front office knew exactly what it was doing (and not doing) last winter?
Steve Adams
3:59
I am plenty ready to acknowledge that the Cardinals have played better than I believed them capable of.

I don't think you can credit the front office the way you're suggesting, though. If they felt the Cardinals were/could be this good, why didn't they add anyone beyond Phil Maton? If they felt this was a good team, why did they ask Gray, Contreras and Arenado about waiving their no-trade clauses?

They didn't choose a lane one way or another, which feels like a missed opportunity. Plus, every report out of the Cardinals beat suggested they were holding Helsley in hopes of getting a bigger return at the deadline, which suggests they were intent on trading him but willing to risk him declining or getting hurt, which is a method I don't love.
4:00
So.. yes, the Cards are better than I thought. No, I don't think their front office had a good winter, still. The results don't necessarily justify the process, favorable as they may be.
4:02
I also question the sustainability of it. The Cards are 21-13 in games decided by two runs or less. It's hard to win close to two-thirds of your close games like that. They also have had nearly immaculate health in the rotation and the lineup. Each of Gray, Mikolas, Liberatore, Pallante and Fedde have made 16 starts. Masyn Winn went on the IL for 10 days in April, and that's pretty much it for injuries among their starters, except for Jordan Walker (who still hasn't proven he can hit) and Nolan Gorman (who's been about average).

It's a nice season and they should 100% capitalize and go for it late next month if they're still in contention, but I have a hard time giving too much credit to a front office that tried to blow up the roster, couldn't do it because of no-trade clauses, and then also chose not to add anything of note.
Hits Like Rays
4:03
Can the Rays still hope to compete if they trade Zack Littell this season?  Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen will always be injury risks for the rest of their careers, and Shane Baz and Taj Bradley have been very inconsistent this year.
Steve Adams
4:04
Sure. They also have Ian Seymour, Joe Rock and Joe Boyle as rotation options on the 40-man, and they could always trade Littell but find another starter in a trade sending out prospects and/or other short-term veterans (e.g. Brandon Lowe)
IF good?
4:04
Think the Yankees still shop for an infielder at the trade deadline if it means giving up Peraza? A rental bat would probably be more productive of course, but doing so also likely means DFA'ing Peraza, a once-top prospect who could serve as a bench piece for years while he gets acclimated to MLB pitching. All in all it seems like a steep tradeoff for a few months of better production, especially since they're already #1 in the AL.
Steve Adams
4:05
If the Yankees were concerned about Peraza as a long-term piece, they'd have given him more than 133 PA in a year where he's out of options and where every other infielder on the roster has been hurt. It doesn't feel like he's going to get a shot there. I imagine a DFA and/or trade in the next month will take place.
Ouch
4:06
"The only people who seem to hate it are a vocal subset of MLB fans." Really curious how you decided they're the subset. Those MLB fans vocalizing their opinions are the ones ultimately paying for their salaries as they support and enjoy the game of baseball, not to mention coming here and supporting your website. Comments like this make me feel like you don' care about that.
Steve Adams
4:09
Most MLB fans don't know/care about the salary side of baseball and don't even know what MLB Trade Rumors is. Much as I'd love that not to be true on the latter half, haha, it's just reality that a lot of people glaze over and don't care about the payroll/business side of things. And there's also a good portion of fans who do know about that side of things and think deferred money is fine.

It's not about insulting those who hate deferred money and wish it'd go away -- but I cannot believe that of the literal millions of baseball fans around the sport, more than half of those millions are keenly aware of the intricacies of Ohtani's contract and have strong feelings about its permissibility (or lack thereof).
Load More Messages
Connecting…