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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 8/8/24
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Steve Adams
12:21
Greetings everyone! Anthony is on vacation this week, so I'm stepping in to handle this week's subscriber chat. We'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to submit questions in advance! Looking forward to it.
1:43
Hey everyone! Plenty of questions already in the queue and a lull in the news cycle, so let's just get started early here!
CaseyBlakeSnell
1:43
Does Blake Snell opt out after the season? What type of deal would he be looking at if he does?
Steve Adams
1:46
It's wild that this is even a question now, since about six weeks ago it'd have sounded laughable to think he'd turn down $30MM for 2025.

I do think he'll opt out, and I think he'll command a nine-figure deal. Probably not the 200MM we predicted last time around, but he could technically sign for anything north of 5/130 and claim that over his first six free agent years, he topped Carlos Rodon's 162MM.

I think anything in that 5/130 to 6/150 range seems feasible. Snell has shown repeatedly that he struggles early in a season for whatever reason, but when he's at his best he's borderline unhittable. And this year he of course had the groin/adductor injuries to point to as a justifiable reason for those April troubles.
1:47
Since he's come back a month ago, Snell has 39 innings with a 1.15 ERA, 36 K% and 8 BB%. He's been a monster, he's throwing as hard as he ever has, and he can't get a QO this time around
1:48
I think he opts out, and I think it's reasonable to expect he clears $100MM by a good margin. The exact number will depend on how he finishes, but I'm buying the return to form and think something 140ish feels plausible.
Atlanta
1:48
We've got a bad stretch going right now. What happened and are we really going to miss the playoffs?
Steve Adams
1:52
Notably, this question came in before the Brewers turned today's game at Truist Park into a home run derby. It's not a fun day to be a Braves fan.

This is boring, but the simple answer for "what happened" is just health. Harris, Albies, Acuna all shelved for notable periods -- that's an All-Star caliber 1-2-3 atop a lineup. Spencer Strider is on the short list of the game's best pitchers. Reynaldo Lopez has been huge for them and now he's out, too.

The Braves have lost as much pure talent to the injured list (in terms of overall volume of games) as any club in baseball -- maybe more. They've obviously had some underperformance issues (Matt Olson most notably), but that's at least been partially offset by Marcell Ozuna finding the fountain of youth.
I'd still have the Braves making the playoffs if forced to pick teams today, but I'd feel far less certain about it than I'd have expected on Aug. 8.
1:54
More broadly, I just don't love the way Alex Anthopoulos has gone about things over the past year. The convoluted process by which the Braves took on some $50MM+ of expenses (including luxury tax) to buy five years of Jarred Kelenic, paired with taking on so much of Jorge Soler's money ... I know the farm isn't what it used to be, but I'd much rather have seen them just spend prospects rather than muddy up the CBT bill in that capacity.
1:55
He's earned the benefit of the doubt, of course, and I think Anthopoulos is very good in general -- this has just been kind of a puzzling year or so of moves.
Chris Young
1:55
20/20 hindsight, but I should have sold, right? My team hasn't played well for a meaningful stretch since the first few weeks of the season!
Steve Adams
1:58
I don't know that I agree. Rangers GM Chris Young had a team that was 3.5 games back of first place with multiple arms of note progressing in rehab (Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom most notably). They won a World Series a year ago. Maybe that WS win would've bought some good will from the fans in the event of a sale, but waving the white flag when you're less than four games out, less than a year removed from a WS win and with notable talent on the mend ... I think their approach was fine.
1:59
I don't feel like they gave up a ton for Chafin, and they did trade Lorenzen in a deal I really liked for Texas.
Stan the Fan
1:59
Why have the Cardinals become particularly poor at player development?  It seems like many of their highly-touted players do not reach their potential and even regress, eg. Carlson, Walker, Gorman.  Has the "Cardinal Way" become stale, or has an insular front office failed to adapt to changes in the game?  I am concerned that Bill DeWitt III, a Harvard MBA, does not believe he can earn an adequate return on additional investments in the franchise.
Steve Adams
2:00
I wouldn't call them poor at player development necessarily. That feels harsh when they have a 22-year-old shortstop who's having what would be a Rookie of the Year-caliber performance in many seasons (but probably won't be in this year's stacked field)... plus big strides from Alec Burleson at the plate, another good showing out of a seventh-round find (Brendan Donovan)
2:01
Lars Nootbaar isn't a star and I know some Cards fans are confused by the love he gets, but he's a .243/.347/.418 hitter with good defense and baserunning, plus plenty of upside based on his consistently excellent quality of contact. He's a real good player.
2:03
It's fair to say the Cardinals probably aren't the industry leader, or close to it, as they were for a number of years though. And I do think in general, they've become a team that's not considered one of the trendsetters who are constantly thinking and trying outside-the-box notions. If you want to call them "old school" relative to many of today's clubs, sure, but even with some notable misses (particularly Walker, as you referenced), they've also churned out some quality homegrown pieces -- many of whom weren't top-tier picks
2:04
Andre Pallante is another good one.
Chico Walker
2:04
Do you think the Reds should move any of Elly, McClain, India or Marte to the outfield to help balance their roster out?
Steve Adams
2:08
If they're not going to trade from the glut of infielders -- you've also got Spencer Steer, Jeimer Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the mix -- then yeah, a move to the outfield for someone makes sense. I'd probably do it with India, just because he's already a poor second baseman, whereas McLain, EDLC and Marte all at the very least have good defensive tools, if not already good defensive results.

Maybe that means more frequent 1B for Spencer Steer. Maybe he mixes in some more right field or just settles into a role where he plays five positions per season like we're already seeing.
2:09
For what it's worth, I'm not and never have been as big on CES, so I think it's possible Steer settles in at 1B, but there are a lot of moving parts there of course, and India in LF makes some sense to me.
otispdriftwood
2:10
I know trades still - somehow- happen after the "trade deadline". Do you forsee any big trades coming?  And why do the Rockies never trade anyone and try to field a better team?
Steve Adams
2:12
Trades only happen after the deadline now if it's a player who's been on a minor league contract all season. Any time on a big league roster or injured list (or on the 40-man roster) eliminates the possibility.

So no I don't foresee anything major. The Blue Jays just sent cash to the Padres for Tommy Nance and selected him to the MLB roster. More stuff like that, sure. Maybe things get "wild" and we see a name that's pretty recognizable moved. (Ken Giles?) But big trades will wait until the offseason.
2:14
As for the Rockies, their owner, Dick Monfort, is far more involved in baseball ops than he should be. He gets his favorites and doesn't want to move them, and he doesn't have a realistic view of his club. To say he views them through rose-colored glasses would be an understatement. He's routinely forecast outlandish predictions, from the Rockies being a 94-win club to playing .500 ball and keeping themselves in the postseason mix -- both prior to seasons in which they lost 90-100 games. He's a fatal optimist. I also think the Rockies get too excited any time a pitcher has a modicum of success and are too quick to extend some guys. The Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland extensions immediately made me cringe (especially the former).
Angels fan
2:15
With the way the kids have been performing, how do see the Angels for 2025.  What are their main areas they need to address in the off season?
Steve Adams
2:19
I don't think they're anywhere close to contending. I like Zach Neto and Logan O'Hoppe, but they can only do so much, particularly with the increasing injury troubles for Trout. I'm still not sold on Adell -- recent uptick not withstanding -- or on Moniak. Nolan Schanuel can get on base and put the ball in play, but he's a 1B-only who doesn't hit the ball hard. He's going to need to tap into some more power at some point.

The Angels' 2025 rotation looks like Tyler Anderson, Jose Soriano, Griffin Canning and ... maybe Reid Detmers? Hasn't been enough this year and isn't enough for next year. That's the area they need the most help (not that there aren't other glaring holes)
AA
2:19
Considering Ozuna's outstanding year and his affordable option, it doesn't make sense to keep two DHs next season. What will the trade market look like for Jorge Soler in the off-season considering his contract? What is a realistic return?
Steve Adams
2:21
As I said before, I found it surprising that the Braves took the contract (even with a history of doing so.... Melancon, Iglesias, etc.)

I don't think he's going to have much value. $14MM/year was the going rate for him coming off a huge 2023 season, and he hasn't repeated that in 2024. I doubt he'll have positive value.

Braves could always try to move Ozuna and his year/$16MM though, then slide Soler into DH on a full-time basis and hope the production is close.

It was a really weird acquisition for me.
wall street owners
2:21
What are the odds Yandy Diaz or Brandon Lowe get traded this offseason?
Steve Adams
2:21
I'd be surprised if one of those two isn't traded and not at all surprised if both are.
Mariners
2:22
Do the Mariner have a unique problem with acquiring players with decent track records and having them suddenly see their production drop...nearly to "worst hitter in baseball" territory? Seems like had Garver, Wong, Polanco, Winker, and so many others since the days of Chone Figgins been merely bad or disappointing instead of barely playable or worse, things might have been very different in Seattle. But...is that something that happens a lot: decent player, decent track record, suddenly really, REALLY bad?
Steve Adams
2:26
They've had some bad luck with this but it's not unique to them. I think the Mariners are generally more susceptible to this because they play in an inherently pitcher-friendly (cold/wet) Pacific Northwest climate and have pitcher-friendly dimensions at the stadium too. No stadium has suppressed runs more over the past three seasons than T-Mobile Park, per Statcast park factors, and it's not even close.

Rays/Trop are a distant second, followed by Giants/Oracle, A's/Coliseum and Guards/Progressive.

For what it's worth, Polanco has quietly been pretty dang solid since coming off that IL stint. If he keeps this pace over the final two months, he might yet see that option picked up (though I'd still currently bet against that outcome)
2:27
There are success stories despite T-Mobile, too. Ty France is obviously gone now after a career-worst first half, but he showed up in Seattle and hit immediately. J.P. Crawford turned himself into a good hitter (again, pre-2024) after coming over having struggled in a very hitter-friendly setting with the Phils
MVP
2:28
Ohtani or Marte?
Steve Adams
2:30
I'm Ohtani right now, but he's not leading the field by so much that it's a foregone conclusion, and I understand the DH argument against it.

Ketel Marte is having a bonkers season, and I also think you need to include Elly De La Cruz, Francisco Lindor, Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler in the discussion.
bartkraff@Gmail.com
2:30
can the pitching poor redsox acquie through waivers?
Steve Adams
2:32
Right now, any pitching that hits waivers would need to get through the Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Giants, Cardinals, Mariners, Astros and Braves before the Red Sox even have a chance. Not all of those teams have big pitching needs, and not all have much payroll space. But it's a large enough slate of teams that I feel it'd be hard for any quality arm to make it to Boston on waivers right now.
Austin Barnes
2:32
There's no way LA picks up my 2025 option with Feduccia, Cartaya, and Rushing at AAA, right?
Steve Adams
2:34
It's a $3.5MM option. I wouldn't say "no way." He's hit decently and is a good blocker/framer. Even if they want to turn things over to a younger kid, I could see some modest trade interest in him. I mean, Austin Hedges got $4MM this winter. Tucker Barnhart signed a two-year deal in the 2022-23 offseason.
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