JotCast | Trade Value Series Chat | 7/21/2023

Trade Value Series Chat

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Ben Clemens

11:00

I'm trying to move away from 'here's an unbiased and perfectly accurate list of what gms like' and more towards it being my preference

But I understand that's a nuanced difference

Johnny5Alive

11:00

Given your position for murphy on your list and what he was actually traded for... what are the A's doing?

Ben Clemens

11:00

I hate to say it, but I was already asking that before the Murphy trade

11:01

It's particularly baffling how little they wanted Contreras

Guest

11:01

It would be interesting to see how the list has changed over the years (positions, hitters vs pitchers, contract value, etc.) Any thoughts on a recap article like that?

Ben Clemens

11:01

Um... Honestly maybe in the offseason but for now I don't want to think about valuing players ever again

11:02

I have dreams about whether I should swap Logan Webb and Sandy Alcantara

It's probably not healthy

Alan

11:02

Thanks much for the list! No real question, but man, what a bummer to see so many former Cardinals that STL basically traded away for peanuts, all listed higher than any current Cardinal.

Ben Clemens

11:02

Concur

I've been an Arozarena fan for forever bc he was the trendy underrated prospect when I started farm watching

11:03

And I'm always happy to see him succeed at the same time that I'm annoyed it's not with birds on his jersey

Tacoby Bellsbury

11:03

When you finally filed the final capsules, what did you do to celebrate?

Ben Clemens

11:03

Recorded a bunch of audio blurbs for today's EW episode

(and then went out to a really nice dinner)

11:04

Upscale ish pan southeast Asian. Good Good Culture Club for any bay area people here

Pinstripe Perry

11:04

In the series, you mentioned that scouts and models are still in on Volpe. Can you expand a bit on any of those conversations you may have had that led to his ranking? Maybe I'm too caught up in the day to day of watching him, but I was pleasantly surprised that he was even on the list. Feels like he's been overmatched and is more of a 2B than SS long term.

Ben Clemens

11:04

Well the model part, I'll just point to zips

11:05

Scout wise, people think hell stick at short and love his ability to adapt at the plate, and they think his contact deserves a better outcome than it's gotten

11:06

I'm sure the similar trajectories between last year and this year unconsciously bias them upwards too

Wrights Back

11:06

Which leads me to a question: your "Trade Value" series (as far as I can tell) assumes an '(excess) value for money. Hence all those absurdly talented Braves in the top 10.
If money is not a factor, how does one begin to approach assessing strategy for the trade deadline? Without an 'arbitrage free' framework, how does one assess good vs bad trades?

EG, Steve Cohen has demonstrated he will not let money get in the way of achieving his objectives - whatever they may be this year.

Ben Clemens

11:06

I lost the beginning of this one but great question

11:07

I think that player value is non fungible, which makes things trickier.

11:08

But I started by creating a formula that weights 'surplus value' adjusted to make wins more valuable as you get above average, total controllable wins, and peak projected wins

Basically the things that make teams want to trade for someone

You can't be a great value without all three in concert, naturally

11:09

The weights are hardly set in stone, I tinker with those every year, but I would say there's not quite an arb free framework to be had here

Adam

11:09

Thoughts on Bailey Ober and Edouard Julien jumping on this list a year from now ???

Ben Clemens

11:10

I'll say that I'm skeptical of Ober. Also maybe it's because of the twins ms series but Julien (Eddie Julian to the M's announcers) looks like a beast to me

I am definitely biased in favor of his skillset

Sven

11:11

Was Detmers given any consideration as an HM? Seems comparable to some of the arms in the 31-50 range

Ben Clemens

11:12

I think he'd fit in the range with some of the younger buzzier guys, I'm kinda worried about lack of volume with him given that the rate isn't crazy, but maybe he's the Lars Nootbaar of pitchers

Nice cheap solid rate statistics, less volume than you'd hope, probably not a huge ceiling

Ricky Hart

11:12

How worried should Yankees & Red Sox fans be with the teams struggling this year and getting one (1) player between them on the list?

Ben Clemens

11:13

I think they should be worried about the struggling and not care too much about what one writer said about them on the internet. Now, worried about the process that isn't developing as many stars as hoped? Sure

11:14

But I do think there's a reasonable chance Duran and Bello are on here next year

Bert

11:14

If Tatis stays healthy and gets back to a 150 WRC+ guy with his defense, does he climb back to top 5?

Ben Clemens

11:14

Into my personal top 5? Yes

It's all theoretical, he's never getting traded

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